The State of the 'Tippers, 2017: Offense

Turning to the offense...

Trea Turner was supposed to be the starting shortstop for the Washington Nationals on Opening Day. Everyone in the baseball world recognized that this kid was ready for primetime, and that it would be a complete waste of his talent to let him spend any more time in the minor leagues. Naturally, that's just what the Nationals did (as that is always what they seem to do.) After they were done dicking around with his service time, Turner was finally called up. He proceeded to explode onto the MLB scene: .342/.370/.567, with 13 homers, 8 triples, and 33 stolen bases in 39 attempts. Thanks to all that dicking around, though, he amassed only 324 plate appearances.

When we made the big Kris Bryant trade earlier this year, we knew exactly the risk we were taking. The goal was to spread that risk through diversification. A major element of our more diversified portfolio was Miguel Sano. Of course, within days of making that trade, Sano missed a significant chunk of the season with a hamstring strain. Then he hurt his elbow and missed even more time. Then he hurt his back. This is a 23-year-old kid we're talking about. By the time the dust settled, Sano managed only 495 PA's, with a disappointing .236/.319/.462 triple-slash line. Chalk it up as a wasted season. He will likely serve in a platoon role for us next season.

Another major factor in that trade decision was the acquisition of Andrew Benintendi. We are extremely high on this kid, and believe that he is the piece of the puzzle that we've been missing since Alex Gordon said goodbye to Salem. Unfortunately, the Red Sox also dicked around with Benintendi's service time. After tearing up NCAA and three levels of the minor leagues, it was obvious that he was ready for the big time very early in the year. Instead, the Sox waited until August to promote him. Then, of course, he twisted his knee and missed over two weeks of the remainder of the season. That left him with just 118 PA's, making him a valuable pinch hitter for us in 2017.

We signed Neil Walker as a free agent last winter with the intention of eventually trading him during the season. Instead, he exploded out of the gate, and finished the season with a .282/.347/.476 batting line. Unfortunately, he, too, missed a significant portion of the season due to injury, and ended up with only 458 PA's -- barely enough to avoid the split usage limitations.

Travis Shaw was another player we drafted with the sole purpose of flipping him in trade. But he, too, caught fire early in the season, and was hitting .292/.358/.508 at the end of May. It was around that time that Bob Sylvester offered Jameson Taillon for Shaw, straight-up. We said no. Seriously, that happened. Needless to say, Shaw went into a tailspin after that, and finished with a mostly-useless batting line of .242/.306/.421. Meanwhile, Taillon overcame his past injury issues, was promoted to the majors, and became one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game.

Last winter, we took a gamble by making a deal with the Akron Ryche in which we sent high school phenom Austin Bergner to Akron in exchange for Jose Ramirez. The gamble was two-fold: Bergner (at the time) was ranked the #1 prospect in the Class of 2016, and Ramirez carried a $2 million salary and a MLB career OPS of .604. Needless to say, that trade worked out well for us. Ramirez was among the bigger surprises in MLB, and finished the season with a line of .312/.363/.462. Bergner wasn't selected until the 38th round (pick number 1,138.) You lose some, and once in a blue moon you win some.

When the Granite State Lightning traded Justin Upton to the St. Louis Apostles last winter, and St. Louis GM Bobby Sylvester insisted that it was a salary dump trade, I made the comment that I would have taken Upton's contract in exchange for nothing. Sylvester took me up on the offer (although I somehow ended up giving something.) At the time, we looked at Upton as a terrific bounce-back candidate after a disappointing 2015 MLB season. At the all-star break, however, it looked as though his career was finished. His .235/.289/.381 batting line ranked among the worst in baseball. Then, the Detroit Tigers gave him a few days to think about how much he sucked. Upton hit .260/.337/.579 in the second half of the season and turned his season around. Incredibly, he hit .292/.382/.750 (yes, .750!) in the month of September, with a whopping 13 homers. His overall line of .246/.310/.465 is hardly awe-inspiring, but at least it has some value.

This was the season when Jorge Soler was supposed to break out and become the MVP candidate that we envisioned when he first exploded onto the MLB scene. He posted an .898 OPS in his brief minor league career, and then hit .292/.330/.573 in his MLB debut in 2014. 2015 was a huge disappointment (.262/.324/.399), but he capped that season with a phenomenal postseason performance that seemed to portend that great things were ahead. Or so we thought when we traded for him last winter. Instead, Soler began the first half of the season hitting just .223/.322/.377. Like Upton, he turned his season around in the second half (.258/.348/.515), but like Upton, his overall performance isn't strong enough to make him an asset for us in 2017.

Upton and Soler both came to the Cowtippers in the same trade (in which we sacrificed Freddie Freeman, Chris Coghlan, Luis Valbuena, and Yadier Alvarez.) We received pitcher Jon Gray in that deal as well. We also took on Starlin Castro's albatross of a contract. The best that we can say about Castro's MLB 2016 performance is that it wasn't as bad as his 2015 "effort." He hit .270/.300/.433 overall, with 21 homers. We're hoping that his three games at shortstop will mean that he will be rated at that position, and that his rating will be adequate enough for us to play him at that position. If not, I have no idea what we'll do with him.

Lastly, we picked up Alex Dickerson off the free agent scrap heap earlier this season. While we were hoping he would get a little more playing time down the stretch, we'll settle for his .254/.333/.477 batting line against righties and stick him in a platoon role with Jorge Soler.

vs. LH	PA	BA	OBP	SLG
CF Turner	65	.317	.338	.413
2B Walker	110	.330	.391	.610
3B Ramirez	182	.311	.368	.473
1B Sano	114	.227	.333	.485
RF Soler	84	.267	.345	.467
LF Upton	179	.236	.313	.441
SS Castro	172	.265	.308	.432
C ?
vs. RH
CF Turner	259	.348	.378	.607
RF Dickerson	219	.254	.333	.477
3B Ramirez	436	.312	.361	.457
2B Walker	348	.266	.333	.433
1B Sano	381	.238	.315	.456
LF Upton	447	.249	.309	.474
SS Castro	172	.265	.308	.432
C ?

The State of the 'Tippers, 2017: Starting Rotation

The Great Rebuilding Project of 2016 was supposed to have been brief. By the time we finished the 2016 winter draft, I was convinced that the Cowtippers would be very competitive in 2017. Now that the 2016 MLB regular season is officially in the books, it's time to take a look at where we stand heading into the 2017 BDBL preseason. We'll begin with the starting rotation.

For the better part of the year, it appeared as though our starting rotation would be our greatest strength in 2017. Through the end of July, Stephen Strasburg was a strong candidate for the NL Cy Young award. He owned a 2.68 ERA at that point, and an opponents' OPS of just .571. He then injured his elbow -- again -- and made only five more starts before shutting it down for the season. Naturally, he was so horrendous in those five starts that it jacked his ERA up to 3.60 and his OPS up to .637. In just five starts, he went from a Cy Young contender to a mid-rotation starter. He will also be limited to just 167 innings next season.

We had very high hopes for Stephen Matz heading into this season. Through the end of June, it looked as though he would join Strasburg as two possible Cy Young contenders in 2017. At that point, Matz owned an ERA of just 2.27 with an opponents' OPS of .566. Then, he hurt his elbow and was forced to abandon the slider that greatly contributed to his success. His ERA ballooned to 3.40 over his next five starts and remained at that level until he was inevitably shut down in September. He was shut down repeatedly throughout the season and managed to throw only 132 innings, which gives him 145 innings of usage next season.

We weren't expecting much from Matt Shoemaker this season, but by the end of April he managed to wildly surpass even our lowest expectations. After five April starts, Shoemaker owned an ERA of 9.15. Seriously. We practically begged someone to take him off our hands. Fortunately, no one took us up on that offer. On May 21st, Shoemaker fired seven-plus innings of shutout baseball, with no walks and twelve strikeouts. That began an amazing streak where he posted an ERA of just 1.87 over his next eight games. By September, he managed to lower his overall ERA to 3.88. Then...he hurt his shoulder, and was shut down for the rest of the season. With 160 innings on the season, Shoemaker is now the "workhorse" of the 2017 Salem Cowtippers.

We had high hopes for rookie Jon Gray as well heading into the MLB season. Through the end of May, however, he owned an ERA of 5.56, and looked to be a lost cause for our 2017 rotation. Then he discovered a new grip on his slider. Over his next 11 starts, he posted an ERA of 2.60, with an opponents' OPS of .625. He managed to lower his ERA all the way down to 3.77 -- a remarkable feat for a Rockies pitcher. By the middle of August, we were beginning to think that he might become the ace of the Salem rotation in 2017. Then...he went into a massive slump. Over his last ten starts of the season, he owned a 6.41 ERA with a .771 opponents' OPS. He finished the season with a 4.61 ERA in just 168 innings. Another mid-rotation starter (at best.)

We've always liked Rubby de la Rosa, and were happy to have snagged him in trade last winter. By the end of April, that trade was looking like the work of a genius. De la Rosa owned an ERA of 4.18 and an opponents' OPS of .650 pitching in the tough pitcher's environment of Arizona. In his last start in April, he fanned ten batters in seven shutout innings. His future looked bright. His position in the 2017 Salem starting rotation seemed a lock. He managed to lower his ERA to just 3.53 by the middle of May. Then...you guessed it...he hurt his elbow. He made just one more start, missed the entire months of June, July, and August, tried to pitch out of the bullpen in September, and was ultimately shut down and introduced to Dr. James Andrews.

In MLB 2015, Mike Fiers managed a 3.69 ERA for the season and fanned 180 batters in 180 innings. If nothing else, we expected him to provide us with some innings at the back of our 2017 rotation. Instead, he gave us a 4.48 ERA in MLB 2016, with 26 home runs allowed in only 168+ innings, with only 134 K's and a league-leading 17 wild pitches.

That is our 2017 starting rotation as it stands today: four mid-rotation pitchers, three with elbow problems, a mostly useless #5 starter, and so many usage issues that we'll be forced to add another starter just to make it through the season.

	IP	H	HR	BB	K	Splits
Strasburg	148	119	15	44	183	615/658
Shoemaker	160	166	18	30	143	705/745
Matz	132	129	14	31	129	698/686
Gray	168	153	18	59	185	694/712
Fiers	169	187	26	42	134	749/843

Chapter Two Review

Hello there, baseball fans! Believe it or not, more than one-third of the way into this season, the Salem Cowtippers are the leaders in the OL wild card race. That's right; if the season ended today, your Cowtippers would be playing year-end bonus baseball. Who woulda thunk it?

Coming into this season, our primary goal was to build a team to compete in 2017. It seemed unlikely that we would be competitive this season, as we traded most of our best talent last winter in exchange for future considerations. So how on earth did this happen?

It hasn't exactly happened because of luck. Our Pythagorean record is nearly identical (+1 win) to our actual record. We haven't taken advantage of any home-field fluky factors, as our home record (16-12) is nearly identical to our road record (15-13.) It hasn't happened because we play in a weak division, as our divisional record stands at just 13-11. So why on earth has it happened?

The best explanation to date is: lack of competition. The Flagstaff Outlaws, Bear Country Jamboree, and Granite State Lightning were supposed to be the main competition for the runner-up trophy this year. Instead, Flagstaff is eight games below .500, Bear Country has been outscored by nearly 40 runs, and the Lightning are sporting the worst winning percentage in the Ozzie League.

The Los Altos Undertakers (+127) are outscoring their competition by more than 100 runs so far this year. The New Milford Blazers (+123) trail closely behind in that category. Care to guess which team ranks third? That's right, the Cowtippers -- at just +14. The third best team in the Ozzie League is outscoring their competition by only 14 runs after 56 games have been played. How pathetic is that?

We somehow managed to go 18-10 in Chapter Two, despite batting just .238/.312/.397 as a team. Our pitching was respectable, as we posted a team ERA of 3.10 (third in the OL) and struck out more batters than innings pitched. Travis Shaw (.295/.354/.511) was once again our Hitter of the Chapter, and Stephen Strasburg (2-1, 1.42 ERA, 31 K in 25+ IP) was our top pitcher. Our bullpen was extraordinary as well. Zach Duke, Xavier Cedeno, and Huston Street managed to allow just one earned run in nearly 38 innings combined.

We didn't lose a single series in Chapter Two despite playing a tough schedule. We split four series, took three out of four in two series (against Flagstaff and New Milford), and closed our chapter with a sweep of the Lightning.

So, where do we go from here? We can squeeze another chapter out of the players that we have used throughout the first two chapters of the season. Beyond that, we will need some help to complete the usage requirements. Whether or not we trade for that help or pick it up off the free agent scrap heap remains to be seen. If we have another chapter like this one, it would seem dishonest not to make an effort to finish this season as strong as possible. With Los Altos and New Milford dominating the league as they are, however, trading away the future for a million-to-one shot in the postseason is not something that we will do.

Meanwhile, all eyes in our front office are focused with laser-like precision on the 2017 season. The month of April was more than disheartening, as several of the players we were counting on to carry us to contention in 2017 stumbled out of the gate. But it's a long season, and anything can happen over the next five months.

No one expected the Salem Cowtippers to be in a position to even consider the possibility of trading away a bit of the future for a better chance to contend this year. 2016 has been a pleasant surprise -- so far.

Chapter One Review

Our off-field goal this season is make every effort and take every opportunity available to strengthen our team for the 2017 season. On the field, our goal remains the same as it has always been: to win as many games as possible. Although our focus is on 2017, we still have games to play this season, and winning those games is our immediate priority.

With that goal in mind, Chapter One can be considered a surprising success. We finished the chapter with a record of 13-15, good enough for third place in the division, and managed to outscore our competition by a single run. Our offense posted a triple-slash line of .252/.324/.377, which is roughly league-average, and our pitching staff recorded a 3.83 ERA, which is slightly under the league average (as of this writing.)

On an individual basis, Mike Fiers (2-3, 2.89 ERA in 43+ IP) was our Pitcher of the Chapter. Incredibly, Fiers pitched two games this chapter where he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. Rookie Raisel Iglesias (2-1, 1.83 ERA in 19+ IP) got off to an outstanding start to his big league career, as did fellow rookie Steven Matz (0-0, 1.65 ERA in 16+ IP.)

On the flip side, Stephen Strasburg continues to mystify us with his propensity for allowing home runs. In only 25 innings, Strasburg allowed seven home runs -- half of the total amount he allowed all of last year in MLB. He finished the chapter with a 6.04 ERA, yet Matt Shoemaker (7.30) and Mychal Givens (7.84) somehow managed to surpass Strasburg's suckitude in Chapter One.

Offensively, Travis Shaw (.380/.443/.704) was easily our Hitter of the Chapter. He led the team in nearly every offensive category, including runs created, despite batting only 79 times. Ryan Zimmerman (.327/.382/.571 in 49 AB), Travis d'Arnaud (.293/.359/.561), Mark Canha (.275/.370/.536), and Neil Walker (.296/.350/.398) were also impressive in Chapter One.

Not so impressive: Starlin Castro (.206/.213/.243), Jorge Soler (.229/.326/.289), and most disappointing, rookie Kris Bryant (.231/.367/.308, with just one home run.)

Overall, so far, so good. Despite our focus on 2017, we have managed to play like an average Ozzie League team to this early point in the season. Here is how our first chapter unfolded, series-by-series, in BDBL calendar order:

@ New Milford Blazers

For the seventeenth year in a row (or so it seems) our season began on the road in Nestle Field, which has been a death trap for us, historically. This series was no different. Strasburg was rocked in Game One (which is nothing new, with the exception of last year's OLDS.) In four innings, he managed to allow seven runs and two home runs.

We had a chance to split the series when Fiers tossed an absolute gem in Game Two, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning. The top of the seventh ended with Fiers lacing a single to center field, and d'Arnaud being gunned down at the plate. Fiers allowed his first hit of the game in the bottom of the inning, and got in trouble by walking the bases full, but escaped without damage. The scoreless tie was then broken by a Jason Castro RBI double off of Givens in the eighth. And that was the ballgame, as we lost a squeaker, 1-0.

Shoemaker was absolutely pounded in Game Three, and it looked as though we would see yet another Opening Day sweep. Instead, Iglesias saved the day by tossing seven shutout innings in Game Four to avoid the sweep.

@ Western Kansas Buffaloes

We didn't expect Drew Hutchison to give us much this season, but for one game, at least, he earned his spot on the roster. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough, as we lost the first game of this series, 2-1, thanks to an utter lack of clutch hitting on our side and uncanny clutch hitting by Western Kansas.

We lost yet another heartbreaker in Game Two, losing 2-0, on a freakish homer by backup catcher and pinch hitter Robinson Chirinos. Once again, we failed to hit in the clutch, and wasted several scoring opportunities. That, however, turned around in a big, BIG way in Game Three, when we scored TWENTY runs against Ian Kennedy and the Buffaloes bullpen. The highlight of the game was Kris Bryant's first BDBL home run: a grand slam.

We wrapped up the series with an 8-5 win in Game Four, giving us a split.

vs. Granite State Lightning

In the order in which these games were actually played, this was our true Opening Day. After raising yet another wild card flag in Sam Adams Stadium, we rallied for five runs in the fifth inning and won our first game of the season. Unfortunately, that would be our last win of this series. Shelby Miller and the Granite State bullpen shut us out in Game Two. Givens blew our chances to win Game Three. We then lost a heart-breaker in extra innings in Game Four when Givens blew yet another one.

vs./@ Kansas City Boulevards

The first game of this series went into the eleventh inning with the score still knotted at 1-1. Our $5 million closer, Ryan Madson, recorded the first two outs of the 11th inning...and then served up three singles in a row -- the last of which scored the go-ahead run.

In Game Two, Fiers allowed a two-run blast to Kendrys Morales in the first inning, but then settled down nicely and cruised to a 6-2 win. Matt Shoemaker allowed six runs on eleven hits through seven innings in Game Three...and earned the win. How? Because circus clowns poured onto the field in the eighth inning. We scored six runs (mostly off of reliever Chris Hatcher) and turned a 6-1 deficit into a 7-6 victory.

We had another circus-related rally in the fifth inning of Game Four, turning a 2-1 deficit into a 6-2 lead. Hutchison provided yet another surprising performance, and d'Arnaud smacked a grand slam home run, giving us our first series win of the season.

@/vs. New York Giants

The New York Giants cannot be defeated; they can only be contained. At least, that is how they played through the first two games of this series. New York won an easy 7-1 laugher in Game One, as Arlo Guthrie pitched the game of his life for the Giants. Fat-ass boozer C.C. Sabathia then followed that effort with a gem of his own in Game Two, which New York won, 5-3.

Our fortunes turned when the series switched to Salem's home turf. We carried a 2-2 tie into the ninth inning of Game Three, and then won it with a walk-off single by Jorge Soler. In Game Four, New York took an early 4-1 lead, but we battled back in the seventh and eighth innings and escaped with a 7-4 win to earn a series split.

vs. Los Altos Undertakers

In all likelihood, this was the most lopsided match-up of our season. Yet, we more than held our own against the defending champs. We carried a tie score of 3-3 into the ninth inning of Game One before the floodgates opened and Los Altos scored five runs to turn this one into a laugher. They weren't laughing in Game Two, though, as Fiers -- for the second time this season -- carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning. We managed to peck away at Gerritt Cole and the vaunted Los Altos bullpen, giving us a 6-1 win.

In Game Three, Iglesias gave a phenomenal and gutsy performance against defending Cy Young Chris Sale, but our offense provided little support. We had a chance to tie the game in the eighth inning, but the fleet-footed Bryant was gunned down on a throw to home plate in which there was such a tremendous collision that the Los Altos catcher was injured for 33 games. Los Altos eked away with a 3-2 win.

In Game Four, we turned the ball over to Steven Matz in the third inning (to the booing of the Los Altos dugout), and he tossed five innings of one-hit shutout ball. That gave us a chance to get back into the game -- which we did. We carried a tie into the ninth inning. Then, with two outs and Los Altos closer Dellin Betances on the hill, d'Arnaud hit a shocking walk-off home run, sending the Salem fans home with smiles on their faces.

I cannot recall the last time we walked away with a split against Los Altos. I'm not even sure that it has ever happened. Incredibly, we were in all four games, and were two lucky breaks away from sweeping the series.

@ Las Vegas Flamingos

Another game by Strasburg and Givens, another huge disappointment in Game One. Strasburg allowed two more home runs, and Givens coughed up four runs in an inning, as Vegas ran away with a 7-3 win. We rallied for three runs in the ninth inning of Game Two, and closed within a run, but ran out of bats and lost a one-run heartbreaker.

The clutch hitting we needed was revealed in Game Three, when Jose Ramirez drew a pinch-hit bases-loaded walk to tie the score and force extra innings. An inning later, Justin Upton singled home the go-ahead run, resulting in a 3-2 Salem victory.

Game Four resulted in yet another extra-innings game. This one stretched to the eleventh inning, where Soler led off with a double, moved to third on a fly ball, and scored on a sac fly. Matz closed it out and we walked away with another one-run win and a series split.

'Tippers Celebrate Lance Berkman Day

Lance Berkman apparently isn't good enough to make it to the BDBL Hall of Fame, but on Monday night in Salem, he was officially inducted as the first member of the Cowtippers Hall of Fame.

In a pre-game ceremony, Berkman's number seventeen was officially retired and hung beneath the Jumbotron in center field. Former teammates, including Jeff Bagwell, Bernie Williams, Todd Helton, and Mark Teixeira, joined in the ceremony and congratulated Berkman as he strode onto the field with his family. The Salem fans greeted each former star with a roar of applause, and saved their loudest for former World Series hero Mike Magnante.

Berkman played a franchise-record eight seasons with the Cowtippers -- three more than any other player in history. In those eight seasons, he averaged a .290/.406/.512 triple-slash line (a .918 OPS), with 209 home runs (an average of 26 per season), 773 RBI's (an average of 97), and 932 runs created (an average of 117.)

He currently holds the all-time Salem franchise career records for hits (1,224), runs scored (787), RBI's, doubles (282), home runs, extra base hits (512), walks (829), intentional walks (63), strikeouts (800), sac flies (42), and runs created.

Berkman was among the first players selected in the inaugural BDBL farm draft. He was acquired (along with Adam Piatt) by the Cowtippers in a 2001 trade with the Litchfield Lightning in which Salem sacrificed pitcher Darren Dreifort. He played his first season in Salem that year and hit .323/.462/.617 in limited (338 PA) time. He enjoyed arguably his greatest season two years later when he hit .321/.442/.566 in a full season, with 54 doubles, 26 home runs, 120 RBI's, 119 walks, and 150.7 runs created.

2016 Cowtippers Farm Report, Part Two

By popular demand-- err, at the request of one person-- we present a continuation of the 2016 Cowtippers Farm Report, beginning with #11:

11. Byung-Ho Park, 1b
Born: July 10, 1986 (age 29). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 194. Acquired: 1st round, 2016 winter farm draft.

Background: There have been many Korean-born baseball players who have played in MLB throughout history, but only a very small handful of hitters in the KBO (their version of MLB) have ever made an impact in the US. Last year, Jung-Ho Kang seemed to break that barrier, and now MLB teams are scrambling to find the next Kang. This winter, the Minnesota Twins signed Park, who is widely regarded to be the top hitter in the KBO.

Stats: Last season, Park hit .343/.436/.714, with 53 homers. It was the second year in a row he topped the 50 homer mark. He also struck out 161 times, which doesn't bode well for his transition to the US.

The Future: We aren't expecting Park to slug 50 homers in MLB this year, but if he replicates Kang's performance from last year (.287/.355/.461, with 15 HR), we would be very happy with that. With a hole at first base in 2017, Park provides one possible solution to fill that hole.

12. Nick Banks, of
Born: November 18, 1994 (age 21.) B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 200. Acquired: 1st round, 2015 summer draft.

Background: Now a junior with Texas A&M University, Banks is considered to be a strong candidate to be selected in the first round of the MLB amateur draft. He is considered to be the best "pure hitter" among the college hitters available in this draft, and evokes comparisons to Nick Markakis offensively.

Stats: As a sophomore, Banks hit .364/.450/.536, with 8 home runs, and a 34/58 BB/K ratio. This past summer, he was the best hitter on the USA National Team, finishing the season with a .386/.453/.491 average.

The Future: The best case scenario is that Banks has his best season yet at A&M, is selected near the top of the first round in June, speeds through the minor league system, and becomes one of the first players from this draft to reach the Major Leagues. In his prime, he could be an everyday starting center fielder with excellent defense, a .300 batting average, and 15-20 home run power. At worst, he becomes Mark Kotsay.

13. Corey Ray, of
Born: September 22, 1994 (age 21). B-T: L-L. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 185. Acquired: 2nd round, 2016 winter farm draft.

Background: Ray has been a well-known collegiate producer for two years, but he didn't enter the conversation to become one of the top picks in the June MLB draft until his summer performance with the USA Collegiate National team. Ray led that team in several offensive categories, and played flawless defense, earning accolades from coaches and scouts alike.

Stats: As a sophomore with Louisville last year, Ray hit .325/.389/.543 in 265 at-bats, with 11 home runs, and 34 stolen bases. He also struck out 60 times, with only 24 walks.

The Future: The strikeout and walk numbers are concerning to us, and those are the numbers we will be hyper-focused on this coming season. That will likely determine where he is selected in the draft, and how quickly he develops as a professional. He certainly has the tools to be a "five-tool" player at the Major League level, but far too often, we've seen players of his type (such as Cameron Maybin, Lastings Milledge, and Brian Goodwin), don't always translate their talent into performance.

14. Renato Nunez, 3b
Born: April 4, 1994 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 200. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: Nunez was among the top prospects on the international market way back in 2010. He hit the ground running, and held his own against much older competition at every level, playing the entire 2015 season at the Double-A level at the age of 21.

Stats: In five minor league seasons, Nunez owns a triple-slash line of .276/.328/.473. Last season, he hit .278/.332/.480, with 18 homers, and a 28/66 BB/K ratio.

The Future: There are two knocks against Nunez: he strikes out too much and he makes too many errors. He cut down his strikeout rate drastically last year, from 20% to 16%. Although he swings hard on every pitch, he is more of a line drive hitter than a slugger. With a little more maturity, he could tone down his swing and become more of a pure hitter. His glove, however, is another issue entirely, and likely his greatest obstacle toward the big leagues.

15. Dominic Smith, 1b
Born: June 15, 1995 (age 20.) B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 195. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: Smith was a first round draft pick in the 2013 MLB draft out of high school. He projects as a James Loney or (at best) Freddie Freeman type of first baseman: sweet lefthanded swing that results in a high batting average and gap power, but a cap of 10-15 home runs, excellent defense, and no foot speed.

Stats: After a rough April and mediocre May, Smith seemed to heat up in the second half, posting an OPS of .869 in June, .758 in July, and .809 in August. He finished the year with a line of .305/.354/.417. For his career, he sits at .290/.357/.387, playing mostly in pitcher-friendly leagues.

The Future: We're very interested to see how Smith develops over the next year. The one area of our farm club where we are a little light is first base, so it would be exciting to see Smith take a step up and continue the momentum from the second half of last season. The knock on Smith has been his work ethic, but that seems to have corrected itself as he matures.

16. Rob Refsnyder, 2b/of
Born: March 26, 1991 (age 24.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 205. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: We originally drafted Refsnyder, and then traded him to Ravenswood a year ago, and then reacquired him this winter. He has done nothing but hit since beginning his professional career, but he seems to lack a position. The Yankees' second base position was wide open heading into this winter, but the offseason acquisition of Starlin Castro seems to indicate that Refsnyder will become a utility player who will see time at second base and the outfield.

Stats: Refsnyder's four year career minor league batting line is .290/.380/.432. He hit .302/.348/.512 in a limited (47 PA) appearance in the big leagues last season.

The Future: For now, it appears as though Refsnyder will be a super-utility player and backup at several different positions. How much playing time he receives depends on how well he hits. If he hits well enough, the Yankees will find a spot for him. We expect him to be a contributor to our 2017 in some form or fashion.

17. Amed Rosario, ss
Born: September 20, 1995 (age 20.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 170. Acquired: 2nd round, 2014 winter farm draft.

Background: We very nearly released Rosario on Cutdown Day, but decided to give him one more opportunity to impress us. He is one of those players whose scouting reports never seem to match his performance. He is consistently ranked among the top prospects in his league by the managers and coaches in the league. In 2014, he ranked #3 in the New York Penn League. This past season, he was ranked #7 in the Florida State League (ahead of Anthony Alford, Alex Blandino, and Dominic Smith, among others.) There must be something to his game that the statistics simply haven't reflected.

Stats: Rosario's career batting line of .257/.302/.350 hardly screams "future star." He has hit only 5 home runs in 974 plate appearances, but his 39 doubles and 15 triples suggest that there is some gap power there. He doesn't strike out or walk a lot, and he has stolen only 22 bases in his career (with 13 caught stealing.) His calling card is his glove, which is said to be "major league ready."

The Future: We are giving Amed one more year to prove that the scouts have been right all along. To be fair, he has played his entire career against much older competition, and that has to be considered when evaluating his statistics. He played the entire 2015 season in the High-A league as a 19-year-old, which is over three and a half years younger than the average age of the players in that league. We expect him to play 2016 at the Double-A level, which will give us the opportunity to see him in person and judge for ourselves.

18. John Lamb, p
Born: July 10, 1990 (age 25.) B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 205. Acquired: via trade, Chapter 5, 2015.

Background: Believe it or not, Lamb was once ranked the 18th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America. That was way back in 2011. Since then, he has undergone Tommy John surgery, and spent most of his time over the past three years attempting to return to form. He seemed to finally achieve that goal last season.

Stats: In 111+ innings at the Triple-A level last year, Lamb went 10-2 with a 2.67 ERA. He walked 36, and struck out 117. Upon his promotion to the big leagues, he maintained that sky-high K-rate (10.5) in nearly 50 innings, but finished with a deceptive 5.80 ERA, which was fueled by a .376 balls-in-play average.

The Future: 2016 could be a make-or-break year for Lamb, or yet another stepping stone on his journey back from obscurity. Now with the Cincinnati Reds organization, it seems as though the stage is set for him to take a step forward.

19. J.J. Schwarz, c
Born: March 28, 1996 (age 19.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 192. Acquired: 2nd round, 2015 summer draft.

Background: Schwarz has won so many awards in his brief collegiate career that he must need a storage facility to store them all. As a freshman with the University of Florida, he was named Freshman Hitter of the Year (NCBWA), Co-Freshman of the Year (Louisville Slugger), and Second Team All-American (multiple organizations), among many other honors. He finished third in the NCAA in RBI's, and fourth in home runs.

Stats: In 70 games (the maximum), Schwarz hit .332/.398/.629, with 18 home runs, and a 28/46 BB/K ratio. His 160 total bases led the Florida team -- by a lot.

The Future: It may prove foolish to rank Schwarz so low here, but he still has a long way to go before we know his true level of talent. For now, he looks like a potential 1-1 pick in the 2017 MLB draft. Power-hitting catchers are a rare breed, and it seems that most MLB teams move most catching prospects to another position to "save their knees." By most accounts, he has the tools to remain behind the plate, but that never stopped MLB teams from messing with their catching prospects before.

20. Adrian Rondon, ss
Born: July 7, 1998 (age 17.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: We waited anxiously as our pick drew nearer and nearer in the winter of 2015. We have become used to having a very low draft pick, and spending the entirety of the first round watching one name after another disappear from the top of our list, and 2015 was no exception. But as our pick -- the 19th overall -- drew closer, we couldn't believe our good fortune. One of the names at the very top of our list, from the very beginning, was still available: Adrian Rondon. Incredibly, he remained available right up to the 18th pick. We hit refresh over and over again, waiting for that pick to be made, so that we could officially welcome Rondon to our farm club. Then...Greg Newgard of the Flagstaff Outlaws ripped our heart right out of our chest. It took nearly a full year to do it, but we finally managed to announce the acquisition of Adrian Rondon.

Stats: In his first professional season, playing in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, Rondon hit an abysmal .166/.256/.234. He struck out 57 times in 43 games, walked just 17 times, and didn't hit a single home run.

The Future: Why, you may ask, have we experienced such eagerness to add this young man to our roster, when he was clearly so overmatched? Well, we believe in our scouts, and we believe that we shouldn't place too much emphasis on stats recorded by a sixteen year old child playing against grown men while living away from home for the first time in his life. We believe Adrian Rondon will be a star in the major leagues someday. Clearly, that will take some time, but we are confident that it will happen.

21. Erik Johnson, p
Born: December 30, 1989 (age 26.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 230. Acquired: 1st round, Chapter 5 free agent draft, 2015.

Background: It is a trade that will live in Cowtippers infamy. In order to fill a gaping hole at shortstop, we acquired Ian Desmond from the Los Altos Undertakers back in 2014. At the time, we thought we were getting a hitter with 20+ home run pop, 20+ steals, and an average glove. Instead, we ended up with a Trojan Horse who occupied the number nine spot in our batting order for two years (and failed to hit well enough to occupy even that spot.) In exchange, we gave up Anthony Rizzo. The rest is history. Almost forgotten, however, is that we also threw in Johnson "just to make it even." Thankfully, he was later released by Los Altos, and we snatched him up late last year.

Stats: In 2013, it looked as though Johnson was on the verge of becoming a young ace. In 142 minor league innings, he posted an ERA of just 1.96, with only 7 homers allowed, 40 walks, and 131 K's. Then, the wheels inexplicably came off the bus. His Triple-A ERA in 2014 ballooned to 6.73. His hit rate went up, his walk rate went up, and his K rate plummeted to 5.4. Maybe it was mechanical problems, or maybe he was injured. Whatever the cause, he seemed to find the cure in 2015. In 132+ minor league innings, he brought his ERA back down to 2.37, and his walk rate (2.8 per nine) and K rate (9.2 per nine) returned to normal. He was then given a cup of coffee with the big club, and contributed a 3.34 ERA in 35 innings.

The Future: Which Erik Johnson will show up in 2016? If it is the one who has been on display every year of his professional career, with the exception of 2014, then we will have ourselves a cheap ace for the 2017 season.

22. Jacob Lindgren, p
Born: March 12, 1993 (age 22.) B-T: L-L. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 205. Acquired: 4th round, 2015 winter farm draft.

Background: Lindgren posted some video game numbers during his junior year at Mississippi State (55+ IP, 23 H, 25 BB, 100 K), propelling him to the second round of the 2014 draft (55th overall.) A lefthanded reliever, it was assumed that he would move quickly up the ladder, but bone spur surgery on his left elbow derailed his first taste of the big leagues last spring.

Stats: Lindgren continued to dominate opponents during his first exposure to pro ball in 2014, as he averaged more than 17 strikeouts per nine. He recorded similar numbers in 2015 (22 IP, 16 H, 10 BB, 29 K) before he was called up to the big club.

The Future: We are writing off 2015 as if it never happened, and look for Lindgren to be a valuable member of our 2017 bullpen. He needs to get his walk rate under control, but we like the idea of adding that power lefty arm for the middle innings.

23. Scott Schebler, of
Born: October 6, 1990 (age 25). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 225. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: In a recent FantasyPros article, budding young writer Bobby Sylvester noted that many top players (such as Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Josh Willingham, and J.D. Martinez) were not highly regarded as prospects because they lacked certain tools that scouts tend to overemphasize. We feel that Schebler may fit into that mold. He was a 26th round draft pick out of community college. He has never been highly regarded as a prospect, and yet he has done nothing but hit throughout his professional career.

Stats: Schebler's career minor league numbers sit at .272/.338/.490. He posted a .900+ OPS in 2013 and 2014, and then tapered off a bit last year, hitting just .241/.322/.410 in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. He enjoyed a productive Arizona Fall League, however, batting .310/.352/.524 in 24 games, and had a quality cup of coffee (.250/.325/.500) with the Dodgers as well.

The Future: Schebler was traded to the Cincinnati Reds this winter, and he is listed behind Jay Bruce in their official depth chart. Given the rumbling over a possible trade of Bruce, it's possible that Schebler could slide into a starting role. If he gets the opportunity, he is capable of posting some solid numbers.

2016 Cowtippers Farm Report

It's hard to believe, but an official Cowtippers Farm Report hasn't been written since 2010. Let's take a trip in the Ol' Wayback Machine to review some of the highlights of that report:

Unless something goes horribly wrong, we will see Pedro [Alvarez] manning the hot corner for us next season.

Something must have gone horribly wrong, as Alvarez has never started a single game for Salem.

After years and years of looking for a long-term solution behind the plate, we believe we may have finally found that special someone in Tyler Flowers.

The only person left who feels that Tyler Flowers in a special someone is Mrs. Flowers.

While his scouting reports don't scream "future ace!", his numbers certainly do.  And when we look back at the scouting reports for pitchers like Greg Maddux and Brandon Webb, it's easy to remember that scouting reports are often wrong.  The numbers speak for themselves, and we think Dan Hudson will be an MLB ace in the very near future.

Greg Maddux...Brandon Webb...Dan Hudson. You can see the line of progression- err, regression.

We also listed a "2015 Projected Roster", which included Flowers at catcher, Eric Hosmer at first, Brent Morel at third, Pedro Alvarez, Tyson Gillies (??), and Matt Kemp in the outfield, and a pitching staff of Stephen Strasburg, Felix Hernandez, Luke Hochevar, Hisashi Iwakuma, Justin Masterson, and Scott Elbert. Well, at least we got the Strasburg part right!

With that type of track record, you may be wondering why we would ever write another Farm Report. Well, the answer is simple: we're bored out of our minds waiting for the free agent draft to begin.

Salem's Top Ten Prospects

1. Shohei Otani, p
Born: July 5, 1994 (age 21). B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 189. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: Otani is widely considered to be the best player in Japan. He first came to fame as a high school pitcher, where he lit up radar guns with a 99mph fastball. When he graduated, he announced that he would immediately sign with a Major League team. Instead, the Nippon Ham Fighters convinced him to stay in Japan for at least a short term. One rumor suggests that he signed with the Fighters because they offered him the opportunity to play the outfield on the days he wasn't pitching. Another rumor suggests he signed with an out-clause that allows him to sign with a US team well before he reaches the age of free agency. And yet another rumor suggests he signed with the team because they offered him a lifetime supply of Nippon ham.

Stats: In three seasons with the Ham Fighters (note: not their real name, but still hilarious), Otani owns a 2.72 career ERA in 377+ innings, with only 282 hits allowed (6.7 per nine), 136 walks (3.2 per nine), and 421 strikeouts (10.0 per nine.) 2015 was his best season to date, as he went 15-5 with a 2.24 ERA, and 196 K's in 160+ innings. As a hitter, he has logged roughly the equivalent of a full MLB season in his career (557 PA's), and owns a triple-slash line of .245/.300/.429 with 18 homers and 36 doubles.

The Future: When will Otani come to the US? That is the big question. When he does, he will likely break the record for highest salary by a Japanese player, and will likely become the #1 starter for some lucky ballclub. From a BDBL perspective, Otani will be an extremely valuable commodity, as $100,000 ace starters are extremely rare. Our fingers are crossed that we will see him in a Cowtippers uniform by 2018.

2. Trea Turner, ss
Born: June 30, 1993 (age 22.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Acquired: 1st round, summer, 2013.

Background: We drafted Turner when he was a rising junior at NC State. At the time, his scouting report indicated that he had "80" speed (on the scouting scale of 20-80), a patient approach at the plate, gap power, and a solid glove that would stick at shortstop. That report has proven to be accurate. When the top prospect lists are published this spring, we expect Turner to be ranked as our top prospect.

Stats: In just two full minor league seasons, Turner has hit .322/.384/.454, with 40 doubles, 9 triples, 13 homers, and 52 stolen bases in 62 attempts. In a brief 44 PA trial with the big club, he hit just .225/.295/.325.

The Future: We expect Turner to be our full-time, everyday shortstop in 2017. We envision him as a high-OBP leadoff hitter with occasional pop when he reaches his full potential.

3. Steven Matz, p
Born: May 29, 1991 (age 24). B-T: R-L. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 200. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: Ranked by Baseball America as the #3 prospect in the Pacific Coast League, Matz rose quickly through the ranks after missing his first two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. He rose all the way to the big leagues last season, and was a key contributor to the Mets' postseason.

Stats: In four minor league seasons, Matz compiled a nifty 2.25 ERA in 380+ innings, with a BB/K rate of around 3/9. With the big club, he went 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA in six starts, and then posted a 3.68 ERA in three postseason starts.

The Future: We expect to see a full MLB season from Matz this year, and hope that he can be a full-time contributor to our starting rotation in 2017.

4. Rafael Devers, 3b
Born: October 24, 1996 (age 19). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 195. Acquired: 6th round, summer, 2013 draft

Background: Devers was among the top-rated international prospects signed at the July 2nd deadline in 2013. We took a gamble on him based on his scouting reports, and that gamble has paid huge dividends so far. Devers was ranked among the top 100 prospects in the game last year, and will likely be ranked among the top twenty this year. A left-handed third baseman, Devers has demonstrated excellent power to all fields and a patient approach at the plate. One of the youngest players in the South Atlantic league, he was ranked by Baseball America as the league's #5 prospect.

Stats: In only two full years of pro ball, Devers owns a career triple-slash line of .300/.357/.466 in 810 plate appearances, with 18 homers and 55 doubles. He also owns a .927 career fielding percentage at third base, so there is still work to be done.

The Future: Only 18 years old when last season ended, Devers is still likely years away from making a contribution to our ballclub. In his prime years, we expect him to be a consistent .300/.350/.500 hitter and a cornerstone of our franchise (if we don't trade him to Bobby first.)

5. Aaron Judge, of
Born: April 26, 1992 (age 23.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-7. Wt: 275. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: We originally drafted Judge out of college in the eighth round of the 2013 winter farm draft. We traded him last year (along with Rob Refsnyder) in exchange for Alex Gordon, and then reacquired him this winter (along with Refsnyder and Matz) for Max Scherzer and Joaquim Soria. At 6-foot-7 and 275 pounds, Judge is a beast, yet he moves well for a man his size. As a college student, his scouting report suggested that he had huge power potential, but had yet to translate that potential into his game play.

Stats: That potential finally revealed itself during his first year of pro ball, when he launched 17 homers in 131 games. He followed that performance by hitting 20 homers in 124 games last season. Overall, his career batting line is .281/.375/.467, with 50 doubles and 37 homers in 1,103 plate appearances.

The Future: We expected Judge to get a September call-up last year, but he struggled (.224/.308/.373) at the Triple-A level, and proved that he wasn't quite ready for primetime. We expect that the Yankees will return him to that level to start the 2016 season. If he fares better the second time around, we could see him with the big club by mid-season. In his prime, we see Judge as a power-hitting right fielder, capable of hitting 25+ homers per season, with a high on-base percentage and excellent defense.

6. Jon Gray, p
Born: November 5, 1991 (age 24.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 235. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: Gray was the third overall pick of the 2013 MLB amateur draft, out of the University of Oklahoma. A right-handed power pitcher, he has been ranked among the top 25 prospects in the game for the past three years. He was ranked as the #4 prospect in the Pacific Coast League (just behind Matz) by Baseball America.

Stats: Gray owns a career 3.82 ERA over three minor league seasons. In 276 innings, he allowed 261 hits, 19 homers, 90 walks, and 274 strikeouts. He earned nine starts at the big league level last year, and posted a 5.53 ERA. Opponents batted .391 against him in the elevated arena of Coors Field, and just .225 away from Coors.

The Future: The best case scenario is that Gray figures out how to pitch at home, and becomes a workhorse who can give us 180+ quality innings in 2017. The worst case scenario is that he continues to struggle at home, and is sent back down to Triple-A to get some more seasoning. At this point, each scenario seems like a 50/50 proposition. Either way, we envision Gray eventually becoming a very valuable part of our starting rotation at some point in the very near future.

7. Jorge Mateo, ss
Born: June 23, 1995 (age 20.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 188. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: One of four shortstop prospects on our farm, Mateo's scouting report is very similar to Trea Turner's: 80 speed, excellent on-base ability, and developing power. He has been one of the youngest player in his league over the past two years, and was ranked by Baseball America as the #2 prospect in the South Atlantic League.

Stats: In four minor league seasons (including the Dominican Summer League), Mateo has hit .279/.359/.410, with 146 stolen bases in 175 attempts (a success rate of 83%.) He was promoted to the High-A Florida State League at the end of last season, and hit .321/.374/.452 in a brief, 91-PA, trial.

The Future: Mateo is considered to be the Yankees' shortstop of the future, and was a highly-sought commodity this past winter. The fact that the Yankees didn't trade him speaks volumes about their view of him. We have a tremendous amount of depth at the shortstop position, which gives us the flexibility to use Mateo as either our franchise shortstop or as valuable trade bait.

8. Alex Blandino, ss
Born: November 6, 1992 (age 23.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 190. Acquired: 3rd round, 2015 winter farm draft.

Background: A first round pick (29th overall) in the 2014 MLB amateur draft, Blandino has done nothing but rake since becoming a professional. He was ranked as the #13 prospect in the Florida State League by Baseball America. He has played mostly as a shortstop throughout his career, but has also played a handful of games at second base (which is where many believe he will wind up.)

Stats: In two full minor league seasons, Blandino has hit .280/.365/.442 with 45 doubles and 18 homers in 763 plate appearances. He managed to reach the Double-A level last season, where he posted a respectable .724 OPS.

The Future: With a logjam at shortstop on the Salem farm, Blandino would be a better fit for our club at second base. For now, we continue to monitor his progress at short, and we continue to be impressed with the way he has handled each move up the ladder. He should begin this season in Double-A and could see the big leagues by September.

9. Blake Rutherford, of
Born: May 2, 1997 (age 18.) B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 190. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: Rutherford is considered to be the best hitter in the high school class of 2016, and a "five tool" player. A native of Simi Valley, California, he has been attending showcase events for several years, and is well known to scouts across the country. He may be among the top five picks in the coming MLB amateur draft. This summer he led the Team USA 18u team to a gold medal.

Stats: As a junior, Rutherford hit .435/.602/.693 for his high school team, with four homers, twenty five walks, and seven strikeouts.

The Future: Likely to be years away from contributing to the Cowtippers, we are nevertheless excited to see how Rutherford develops (and how quickly he develops) over the next few years. He has been compared to Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier, and if that comparison holds for the next few years, we would be very happy with that.

10. Vladimir Gutierrez, p
Born: September 18, 1995 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 170. Acquired: 5th round, 2014 summer draft.

Background: Gutierrez debuted in the Cuban national baseball league at the age of 18. He pitched out of the bullpen in his first season, and then moved to the starting rotation, where he became a star. Halfway through his second season, he was selected to represent Cuba in the 2015 Caribbean games. On February 3rd, he and a teammate left the hotel and defected from their home country, and he is now free to sign with a MLB ballclub. He owns a fastball that sits in the 88-91 mph range, and a curveball that Baseball America's Ben Badler called "the best in Cuba." He was ranked the twelfth best prospect in Cuba by BA before his defection.

Stats: In his debut season, Gutierrez posted a 3.90 ERA in 67 innings, with 40 walks and 44 strikeouts. In his abbreviated second season, his ERA fell to 2.45 in 51+ innings. He cut his walks in half (19) and struck out 49 batters.

The Future: For now, all we know about Gutierrez is his scouting report. Once he signs with a Major League team, and begins to pitch against professional hitters, we will learn exactly what we have to deal with. All of the reports suggest that he has the tools to be a front line starting pitcher. Whether or not he reaches that potential remains to be seen.