The Latest Additions

The final trading deadline of the year came and went without any major deal on our part. We did manage to pick up one more arm for the bullpen. I have no doubt whatsoever that Dany Jimenez will be every bit as effective and productive as our last bullpen acquisition, Chase De Jong. And yes, that is sarcasm.

I did everything I could to make a Nic Weiss "arbitrage"-like deal. Luis Garcia is done for the MLB season and is having a terrific BDBL season. I figured I could get something for him. Maybe unload a bad contract. But no. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. So, I now look forward to cutting him in December.

The big midseason draft allowed us to prune some dead branches of our farm system and replace them with fresh new budding young talent:

• Kyle Teel: The 14th pick in the MLB draft by the shitty Red Sox, and the 7th-best prospect in the draft according to MLB.com. He is a catcher by trade, which means he may become trade bait unless he shifts positions -- which is highly likely. He is coming off an outstanding year with Virginia (.407/.475/.655, 13 HR, 32/36 BB/K), and will likely move quickly through the minor leagues.
• Jose Perdomo: He is considered to be at or near the top of the International prospects ranking for 2024, along with our #1 pick last winter, Fernando Cruz. The scouting reports for both shortstops are nearly identical. Both are roughly the same size, are advanced hitters, top athletes, and likely to stick at shortstop.
• Wade Meckler: An 8th round draft pick in 2022, Meckler has done nothing but hit since turning pro. In 361 career pro PA's, he's slashing .375/.465/.521 with a 51/54 BB/K ratio. He has already reached the Double-A level in only his second pro season. Another guy named Wade (Boggs) hit .318/.412/.386 in his minor league career. Just sayin'.
• Jacob Cozart: Yet another catcher! Kiley McDaniel ranked Cozart as the #5 prospect in the 2024 draft, citing his "above-average defensive skills and raw power." As a sophomore at NC State, Cozart hit .301/.392/.546 with a 24/38 BB/K ratio.
• Christian Moore: This league is so ridiculous, it's become nearly impossible to find any top prospects who are eligible for a draft that is two years from now. Many of the players expected to be selected at the top of the 2025 draft are already claimed. Moore (.304/.444/.603, 17 HR), an outfielder with the University of Tennessee, is one of those prospects.
• Yuki Matsui: One of the best and most consistent relievers in Japan, the 27-year-old Matsui is eligible to come to the US following this season. This year, he has posted a 0.55 ERA in 32+ innings, allowing just one home run and five wallks, while striking out 44. For his career, he owns a 2.41 ERA, with only 5.9 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, and 12.1 K/9.

Chapter Four Review

It was fun while it lasted. Our 2023 season unofficially came to an end this chapter, as it has become crystal clear that the Florida Mulligans will never reach the potential we have this season. This season reminds me in so many ways of the 2021 season, when we had the best pitching staff (by far) in the entire BDBL and somehow managed to avoid the playoffs. On paper, this year's team should be good enough to win a spot in the playoffs -- if not a division title. Instead, we're barely scraping by.

We finished Chapter Four with an abysmal 10-14 record. Set aside our bizarre Chapter Two, in which we went 21-7, and we're a .500 team (38-38) the rest of this season. I believe .500 is the true representatation of this team's ability. That second chapter was a drastic outlier.

This team's under-performance can be blamed squarely on three factors:

1. Shohei Ohtani may win the OL Cy Young award this year. He may even win the league MVP. But he has been an abysmal failure at the plate for us this year. Through 102 games and 382 at-bats, he has managed to hit just 12 homers. He is on pace to hit just 18 this year, which is nowhere near the 34 homers he hit in MLB a year ago. What is the point of having Shohei Ohtani in your lineup if he doesn't hit like the actual, real, Shohei Ohtani? I have no idea who this imposter is, but he's nothing like the real deal.

2. Rafael Devers is the absolute worst, most disappointing player, I have ever managed in my 25-year career. His BDBL numbers (.232/.308/.381, 10 HR) are nowhere near his MLB numbers (.295/.358/.521, 27 HR.) We expected him to be useless against left-handers, and yet he's been better than expected. His problem is right-handed pitching, bizarrely enough. In MLB, he hit .304/.375/.557 against righties. This year, he's hitting just .215/.291/.354. Again, what is the point of having a top-30 hitter in our lineup if he performs like a bottom-30?

3. We have seen many, many, many teams in the BDBL's recent past who have had no-name, no-nothing, bullpens that performed extraordinarily well in the BDBL. We have a bullpen filled with no-name no-nothings, and yet we can't catch a break with any of them. They all suck. Carl Edwards (6.46) and Chase De Jong (6.49) have pitched worse than any position player in baseball. On the starting side, Ranger Suarez (6.49) and J.P. Sears (6.57) have been worse than useless. Before the game even begins, I know we're going to lose when those two are on the mound. Automatic losses. All four pitchers own ERA's over three runs higher than their MLB ERA's. Again, what is the point of having pitchers with good MLB numbers if they don't translate to the BDBL?

I am officially done trying to compete this year. Especially in this environment with the Undertakers running away with yet another BDBL title, there is no point in trying to improve this shit sandwich of a team. I have tried, and continue to try, to trade whatever I can for future value, but the trade market is abysmal this year.

We're now tied with the Ravenswood Infidels in the OL wildcard. The Infidels gave up on the season a few weeks ago, but then turned around and added a pitcher for this year. So who the hell knows what Skizm is up to. The direction of his team depends on the direction the wind is blowing. I know which direction we are heading: DOWN.

About That Trading Deadline

The first thing you learn when you participate in your first BDBL auction is that there is always someone -- and it only requires one person -- who is stupid enough to make an asinine decision that will ruin his franchise for years to come in order to satisfy an immediate need. Because of that, you will likely not get the player you desperately need at what anyone would consider to be a reasonable price.

The same holds true when it comes to trading. If you have your sights set on a player that fits perfectly for your team, you'd better be willing to do something extremely stupid and trade away your franchise's future or someone else will inevitably beat you to the punch.

To say that Brian "Skizm" Potrafka is a volatile character would be the understatement of the century. You never know what you will get from Skiz from one moment to the next. The only predictable part about him is that he is so unpredictable. Against all odds, he was winning his division in a tight race with the defending-champion Akron Ryche. He did not receive a single vote in preseason polling to win that division, and yet there he was enjoying a comfortable lead halfway through the season.

Last chapter, the Kansas Law Dogs placed Albert Pujols on the trading block. Pujols is exactly -- exactly -- the type of player we need in order to have any shot of winning our division and/or advancing in the playoffs. Pujols, however, is a three-chapter rental. He has no value whatsoever beyond this season. As such, I was not willing to sacrifice a significant piece of my team's future to get him. I did, however, offer several players with good value and invited Kansas GM Chris Luhning to select from ANY player on my roster, which I would then consider.

Instead of responding to my trade offer, Luhning went ahead and traded Pujols to Skizm. In fairness, I would not have offered as much as Skizm did. (See above: there is always someone willing to do something more stupid than you.) In essence, Skizm agreed to take on Zack Greinke's $6.5 million salary next season, which is something we can't afford. Still, it would have been courteous of Luhning to at least respond to my offer instead of ignoring it completely. Of course, when I called him out on that, he responded with his usual snark.

After stealing Pujols from under my nose, it took precisely fourteen days for Skizm to suddenly change his mind about the 2023 season. Despite still owning sole possession of first place in his division, he threw one of his patented temper tantrums and blew up his team. Set aside for a moment the damage that does to the league. This rant is about trading.

I made the same offer to Skizm as I did to Luhning -- opening the door to anyone on my roster. And he responded in the same snarky way as Luhning. Obviously, these people seem to believe that two chapters of Pujols is so valuable it's worth blowing up my team's future.

To be blunt: fuck that. The days of sacrificing our future for a 1,000-in-one shot at winning the trophy are over. I refuse to be pushed into making a stupid decision just because others are so willing to make stupid decisions. If I could get a sweetheart deal like the one Tony Chamra received from Skizm, that would be a no-brainer. But I'm clearly held to a different standard, so I will act accordingly.

The Florida Mulligans are good enough, as currently constituted, to win a spot in the playoffs. With the Undertakers and Blue Wave dominating at such a historic level, the odds that we would advance far into the postseason -- with or without Pujols -- are astronomical. So I plan to stand pat through the end of this season and expect an early exit in November. I'd rather lose the OLDS than lose a franchise player.

Chapter Three Review

We have played many dumb seasons over these 25 years, but none may be dumber than this one. Even the dumb-as-shit 2021 season, in which we used a projection disk and Jim Dumbledoyle's team ended up winning the championship, may not have been dumber than this one. I simply can't fathom how the same team, comprised of the same players, with the same statistics, can possibly perform so wildly different from one chapter to another -- or even one series to another. It makes zero sense. In Major League Baseball, when we see a team lose ten games in a row, and then win ten in a row (or vice versa) there is a reason for it. Usually, a star player is injured or returns from injury. What's this team's excuse?

Just to review, we began this season with a record of 9-11 (.450). We then went on a 28-8 (.778) tear over our next 36 games. Then we began Chapter Three with a 5-11 (.333) record before going 7-1 (.875) in our final two series. Will the real Florida Mulligans please stand up??

You may think that our wild swings in performance are due to the strength or weakness of our schedule. But no. In Chapter Three, we were swept by the sub-.500 last-place Chicago Black Sox. We also lost three of four to the Philadelphia Fightin's, who are struggling to maintain a .400 record this season. And yet we somehow won three out of four against the (then) first-place Darien Blue Wave.

Miraculously, we currently sit in a first-place tie with the Blue Wave atop the McGowan Division. This is true despite the fact that we've played sub-.500 baseball for nearly half our season! This is true despite the fact that Darien has outscored their opponents by more than double our runs differential! This is true despite the fact that Rafael Devers, who is supposed to be one of our best hitters, is hitting just .231 and is slugging just .360. And this is true despite the fact that Framber Valdez, who is supposed to be one of the best pitchers in the league, is just 7-7 with a 4.05 ERA!

A few random player notes:

• Ranger Suarez's performance this year defies explanation. In MLB, he allowed fewer hits than innings -- an average of 8.6 per game. In the BDBL, he has allowed a whopping 99 hits in just 80+ innings -- an average of 11.1 per game! He has started 14 games this year, and has allowed more hits than innings in 10 of those games! He has allowed 9 or more hits in a game 5 times so far.
• Shohei Ohtani leads the entire BDBL with 12 wins (12-1), is currently ranked #2 in ERA in the OL (2.20), and nearly leads the league in all three triple-slash categories (.168/.240/.300). If he doesn't win the vote for OL all-star starter, something is severely wrong.
• Jon Gray (7-1, 2.59 ERA in 73 IP) has probably been the greatest (positive) surprise of this season. He probably deserves an all-star appearance as well.
• Rafael Devers (27 HR in MLB) is on pace to hit just 14 homers this season. Ohtani (34 HR in MLB) is on pace to hit just 16. The Sand Trap has a 102 HR factor for left-handed batters. Boston's factor is just 96. Anaheim's is 134. Ohtani's suppressed power is somewhat forgiveable based on that difference, but he shouldn't hit HALF as many homers in the BDBL. What excuse does Devers have? A year ago, he hit 50 home runs in the same goddamn ballpark with the same goddamn factors.
• After a very slow start, Adley Rutschman's bat has finally showed up. He hit .274/.386/.466 in Chapter Three, and finished second to only Trea Turner (.324/.387/.491) in runs created.
• Turner made 16 errors in 160 MLB games last year. This year, he's already made 11 errors in only half the number of games.
• Rafael Devers hit one home run in Chapter Three. ONE. Have I mentioned how disappointing his season has been?
• Ohtani hit just .188/.273/.323 with three homers last chapter. He may have screwed himself out of a spot in the all-star starting lineup with that performance.
• The bottom of our lineup is an absolute shit show. Wilmer Flores (.174), Aaron Hicks (.138), Jonathan Schoop (.188), Curt Casali (.077), and Lane Thomas (.143) all hit below .200 this chapter.
• Ranger Suarez was just about automatic in Chapter Three. Automatically awful. He made four starts, went 0-2, posted an 8.18 ERA, and allowed 5 homers in just 22 innings.
• The two newcomers we got from the Peaks last chapter were both lemons. I covered Flores' performance already. The other guy we got, Chase De Jong, posted a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings. Meanwhile, the kid we gave up for him, Aidan Miller, is currently ranked #20 in the draft by BA.

Where do we go from here? Your guess is as good as mine. At least we're back in the hunt. I'd love to pick up at least one more bat and another bullpen arm before trading season ends. We're playing .600 ball without a first baseman or second baseman who can actually hit a baseball. Imagine what we could do with one of those!

Chapter Two Review

Now that's more like it! After getting off to a 9-11 start to this season, our Mulligans have gone a remarkable 28-8 (.778) in the 36 games since then. We finished Chapter Two with a 21-7 record, and as I type, we sit two games ahead in the McGowan Division, all alone in first place for the first time this season.

YEEEEEE-HA!

We began this chapter in the most improbable way imaginable, by sweeping our first two series against the D.C. Memorials and Cleveland Rocks. If we've ever before swept two series back-to-back in the 25 years of this franchise, that memory escapes me. We then ended the chapter with our third sweep over the Virginia Sovereigns. In between, we won two tough series against the South Carolina Sea Cats and South Loop Furies and split with the Charlotte Mustangs. The only series loss we suffered this chapter came against the last-place Las Vegas Flamingos, in a bizarre series in which our entire team simply forgot how to hit a baseball.

We actually hit worse as a team in Chapter Two than Chapter One. We scored nine fewer runs and posted a lower OPS as a whole. However, our pitching staff staged a tremendous turnaround in Chapter Two. Our 4.94 team ERA in Chapter One ranked among the bottom of the league. We walked over four batters per nine and served up 38 homers in 246 innings. In Chapter Two, we posted a miniscule 2.53 ERA, walked "just" 3.3 batters per nine, and allowed only 14 homers in 249 innings.

Our starting rotation was led, once again, by Shohei Ohtani. He went a perfect 6-0 on the chapter, which makes him 10-0 on the season. Believe it or not, his 1.57 ERA in Chapter Two ranks only THIRD on our team among starting pitchers! Jon Gray (1.32) and Luis Garcia (1.43) both topped Ohtani's mark.

On the offensive side, Trea Turner (.321/.369/.518 in Chapter One) continues to rake like an MVP candidate. Andrew Benintendi (.333/.419/.440) continued his surprising Chapter One performance into Chapter Two. Mark Canha (.281/.381/.438), the OL Hitter of the Chapter last chapter, also continues to mash.

On the plus side, Adley Rutschman (.256/.330/.476) and Rafael Devers (.265/.327/.439) both broke out of their slumps, somewhat, although they're still not hitting anywhere near as well as they should be. On the minus side, our first base platoon of David Villar (.167/.333/.389 in Chapter One) and Luis Rivas (.151/.262/.226) is just about useless.

To help address that first base issue, and also to solve our quickly-approaching usage issues, I made a deal with the Flagstaff Peaks in which we added first baseman Wilmer Flores and reliever Chase De Jong. At first glance, adding a guy who is hitting .218/.288/.406 this season hardly seems like an upgrade. However, we believe Flores will enjoy hitting in The Sand Trap, and he brings a stellar Vg glove with him as well.

De Jong currently leads the Peaks with a 2.35 ERA in 23 innings. He's allowed just 13 hits and 8 walks, and has struck out 19. We have some serious usage issues in our bullpen already, so his innings will greatly help there.

In exchange, we had to part with yet another outstanding young prospect. Just add Aiden Miller's name to a LOOOOOOOONG list of prospects we regret trading. I believe this kid has the potential to be the next Austin Riley. However, we have a logjam at third base on our farm, with Brayden Taylor and Brock Wilken both having outstanding seasons in the NCAA this year. They're likely closer to the big leagues than Miller, and we have to give something to get something, so...that explains why I made that decision.

In an ideal world, that would be the last trade I make this year. I don't want to give up any more of our prospects, and we have enough usage and firepower to get by this year. I fully expect us to fall back into second place at some point over the next six weeks, but if that doesn't happen, I may be forced to make a bigger move. Time will tell.

Chapter One Review

The premise of this game we play is that the actual on-field MLB performance of each player, measured by his statistics, determines the outcomes of the events within the game. The makers of this game assure its customers that, although there can be random fluctuations in any given small sample, the outcomes on the field will be nearly 100-percent accurate given a large enough sample of simulations.

Hmm.

Over the course of 25 seasons, I have often questioned whether or not the above is actually true. I understand how confirmation bias works in the human mind. I'm also aware of the distortion caused by small samples, and how it can affect overall perception. If a single player performs far above or below his MLB performance for any given time period, I can accept this as part of the randomness of this game. But when an entire TEAM performs abnormally...something must be wrong.

Heading into our final two series of this chapter, the Florida Mulligans owned a record of 9-11. We owned the worst team ERA in the league, were outscored by our opponents on the season, and spent more than a few days in last-place in the McGowan Division. Something was wrong.

We then closed out the chapter with a series sweep against the Philadelphia Fightin's, including two walk-off wins in the tenth inning, and then shocked the entire world by taking three of four from the dominant Los Altos Undertakers in our final series of the chapter. As a result, we ended up with a pretty respectable 16-12 record, and have somehow managed to outscore our opponents by a whopping five runs.

Heading into this season, we were expected to have one of the league's best offenses, and one of the league's best pitching staffs. Half of that was true in Chapter One. We hit .264/.351/.415 in the chapter, which is decent-enough, but not as great as we expected.

The one player doing the most to drag this team down was Rafael Devers, who is no stranger to inexplicable slumps. It seems as though he has spent the majority of his BDBL career in an inexplicable slump. In Chapter One, Devers hit just .175/.246/.281. He did not hit his first home run of the season until the very last series of the chapter. In fact, the Mulligans as a team hardly hit any home runs in Chapter One. We hit just 25 as a team, which is less than half the total (57) posted by the Darien Blue Wave.

The most inexplicable part about Chapter One was the performance of our pitching staff. We own a 4.94 team ERA, which currently ranks third-from-last in the OL. The poster child for our Chapter One pitching staff was Framber Valdez. According to his MLB numbers, Valdez should be a Cy Young candidate in the BDBL. Instead, he posted a 5.71 ERA in seven starts. He allowed far more hits (52) than innings (41) and walked nearly four batters per nine. In MLB, Valdez owned a H/9 rate of just 7.4 and walked just 3.0 per nine.

In MLB, Valdez set an all-time MLB record for consecutive quality starts. In Chapter One, Valdez gave us just three quality starts in seven attempts (a rate that is roughly half his MLB rate.) In MLB, Valdez held left-handed hitters to a miniscule .192/.274/.231 batting line. In the BDBL, lefties clobbered him to the tune of .350/.458/.350.

In other words, the "Framber Valdez" who pitched for us in Chapter One bears no resemblance whatsoever to the actual Framber Valdez who actually pitches in MLB.

Valdez's MLB teammate Luis Garcia also had a miserable first chapter. He posted a 6.23 ERA in five starts, and also allowed more hits than innings. Ranger Suarez (8.56 in five starts) also had a miserable start to this season. Combined, Valdez, Garcia, and Suarez went 4-10 in Chapter One. Folks...that's not good. Those are three very good pitchers in reality. I have no idea how all three could simultaneously fall into such a slump in simulations.

Prior to those final two series, I had assumed that I would be throwing in the towel on this season. There is no point to doing so this early in the MLB season, so the plan was to wait until that season begins to form before pulling that trigger. Now that the Mulligans are finally beginning to play the way I expected they would play, I am less certain about throwing in that towel than I was last week.

We'll give it another chapter and reassess when the time comes. If we decide to go for it, we'll need a lot of help. If we decide to throw in that towel, we have some tasty trade bait to offer. Right now, I'm straddling that fence.

2023 Draft Diary

January 15

The draft is designed to break your heart. Each draft begins by targeting specific players who are identified as "must-haves." Each draft begins with targeting some players who you believe are flying under the radar, and would make excellent fliers for next year. Each draft proceeds by watching each and every one of those players disappear from your "short list," snatched up by some other person who will never love those players the same way that you would have. It is heart-breaking.

The 2023 draft has been no different. I identified several players as "must-haves" and did not get any of them. I also identified several who would make excellent fliers for next year. As I write here in the middle of the 17th round, I have seen several of those players snatched up by other teams -- two by the evilist of evil villains, Jeff Paulson. Unfortunately, I cannot take any of those fliers until I fill my starting lineup -- and I am roughly three picks away from doing so.

We desperately needed Will Myers. He filled a void at first base that no other player could possibly fill. He hits lefties, he has full-time usage, and he is excellent defensively. With only eight picks remaining before our pick, the fucking Darien Blue Wave (of all teams) snatched him away. That left us with David Villar as our platoon first baseman. Villar is fine. He hits lefties better than Myers. He plays shitty defense, though. And he doesn't have enough usage for full-time play. Which means we now have to draft yet another player to fill that usage.

I actually believed that would be the final disappointment in this draft. However, it then happened again in the very next round when Skiz Potrafka sniped Donovan Solano with the pick right before ours. Solano was going to be our first baseman, moving Villar to second base, where he's less of a liability. Not anymore.

That leaves us with a first base platoon of Villar and someone named Alfonso Rivas, which has to be the weakest first base platoon in the history of first base platoons.

What an epic disaster this entire winter has been.