Chapter Three Review

We have played many dumb seasons over these 25 years, but none may be dumber than this one. Even the dumb-as-shit 2021 season, in which we used a projection disk and Jim Dumbledoyle's team ended up winning the championship, may not have been dumber than this one. I simply can't fathom how the same team, comprised of the same players, with the same statistics, can possibly perform so wildly different from one chapter to another -- or even one series to another. It makes zero sense. In Major League Baseball, when we see a team lose ten games in a row, and then win ten in a row (or vice versa) there is a reason for it. Usually, a star player is injured or returns from injury. What's this team's excuse?

Just to review, we began this season with a record of 9-11 (.450). We then went on a 28-8 (.778) tear over our next 36 games. Then we began Chapter Three with a 5-11 (.333) record before going 7-1 (.875) in our final two series. Will the real Florida Mulligans please stand up??

You may think that our wild swings in performance are due to the strength or weakness of our schedule. But no. In Chapter Three, we were swept by the sub-.500 last-place Chicago Black Sox. We also lost three of four to the Philadelphia Fightin's, who are struggling to maintain a .400 record this season. And yet we somehow won three out of four against the (then) first-place Darien Blue Wave.

Miraculously, we currently sit in a first-place tie with the Blue Wave atop the McGowan Division. This is true despite the fact that we've played sub-.500 baseball for nearly half our season! This is true despite the fact that Darien has outscored their opponents by more than double our runs differential! This is true despite the fact that Rafael Devers, who is supposed to be one of our best hitters, is hitting just .231 and is slugging just .360. And this is true despite the fact that Framber Valdez, who is supposed to be one of the best pitchers in the league, is just 7-7 with a 4.05 ERA!

A few random player notes:

• Ranger Suarez's performance this year defies explanation. In MLB, he allowed fewer hits than innings -- an average of 8.6 per game. In the BDBL, he has allowed a whopping 99 hits in just 80+ innings -- an average of 11.1 per game! He has started 14 games this year, and has allowed more hits than innings in 10 of those games! He has allowed 9 or more hits in a game 5 times so far.
• Shohei Ohtani leads the entire BDBL with 12 wins (12-1), is currently ranked #2 in ERA in the OL (2.20), and nearly leads the league in all three triple-slash categories (.168/.240/.300). If he doesn't win the vote for OL all-star starter, something is severely wrong.
• Jon Gray (7-1, 2.59 ERA in 73 IP) has probably been the greatest (positive) surprise of this season. He probably deserves an all-star appearance as well.
• Rafael Devers (27 HR in MLB) is on pace to hit just 14 homers this season. Ohtani (34 HR in MLB) is on pace to hit just 16. The Sand Trap has a 102 HR factor for left-handed batters. Boston's factor is just 96. Anaheim's is 134. Ohtani's suppressed power is somewhat forgiveable based on that difference, but he shouldn't hit HALF as many homers in the BDBL. What excuse does Devers have? A year ago, he hit 50 home runs in the same goddamn ballpark with the same goddamn factors.
• After a very slow start, Adley Rutschman's bat has finally showed up. He hit .274/.386/.466 in Chapter Three, and finished second to only Trea Turner (.324/.387/.491) in runs created.
• Turner made 16 errors in 160 MLB games last year. This year, he's already made 11 errors in only half the number of games.
• Rafael Devers hit one home run in Chapter Three. ONE. Have I mentioned how disappointing his season has been?
• Ohtani hit just .188/.273/.323 with three homers last chapter. He may have screwed himself out of a spot in the all-star starting lineup with that performance.
• The bottom of our lineup is an absolute shit show. Wilmer Flores (.174), Aaron Hicks (.138), Jonathan Schoop (.188), Curt Casali (.077), and Lane Thomas (.143) all hit below .200 this chapter.
• Ranger Suarez was just about automatic in Chapter Three. Automatically awful. He made four starts, went 0-2, posted an 8.18 ERA, and allowed 5 homers in just 22 innings.
• The two newcomers we got from the Peaks last chapter were both lemons. I covered Flores' performance already. The other guy we got, Chase De Jong, posted a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings. Meanwhile, the kid we gave up for him, Aidan Miller, is currently ranked #20 in the draft by BA.

Where do we go from here? Your guess is as good as mine. At least we're back in the hunt. I'd love to pick up at least one more bat and another bullpen arm before trading season ends. We're playing .600 ball without a first baseman or second baseman who can actually hit a baseball. Imagine what we could do with one of those!

Chapter Two Review

Now that's more like it! After getting off to a 9-11 start to this season, our Mulligans have gone a remarkable 28-8 (.778) in the 36 games since then. We finished Chapter Two with a 21-7 record, and as I type, we sit two games ahead in the McGowan Division, all alone in first place for the first time this season.

YEEEEEE-HA!

We began this chapter in the most improbable way imaginable, by sweeping our first two series against the D.C. Memorials and Cleveland Rocks. If we've ever before swept two series back-to-back in the 25 years of this franchise, that memory escapes me. We then ended the chapter with our third sweep over the Virginia Sovereigns. In between, we won two tough series against the South Carolina Sea Cats and South Loop Furies and split with the Charlotte Mustangs. The only series loss we suffered this chapter came against the last-place Las Vegas Flamingos, in a bizarre series in which our entire team simply forgot how to hit a baseball.

We actually hit worse as a team in Chapter Two than Chapter One. We scored nine fewer runs and posted a lower OPS as a whole. However, our pitching staff staged a tremendous turnaround in Chapter Two. Our 4.94 team ERA in Chapter One ranked among the bottom of the league. We walked over four batters per nine and served up 38 homers in 246 innings. In Chapter Two, we posted a miniscule 2.53 ERA, walked "just" 3.3 batters per nine, and allowed only 14 homers in 249 innings.

Our starting rotation was led, once again, by Shohei Ohtani. He went a perfect 6-0 on the chapter, which makes him 10-0 on the season. Believe it or not, his 1.57 ERA in Chapter Two ranks only THIRD on our team among starting pitchers! Jon Gray (1.32) and Luis Garcia (1.43) both topped Ohtani's mark.

On the offensive side, Trea Turner (.321/.369/.518 in Chapter One) continues to rake like an MVP candidate. Andrew Benintendi (.333/.419/.440) continued his surprising Chapter One performance into Chapter Two. Mark Canha (.281/.381/.438), the OL Hitter of the Chapter last chapter, also continues to mash.

On the plus side, Adley Rutschman (.256/.330/.476) and Rafael Devers (.265/.327/.439) both broke out of their slumps, somewhat, although they're still not hitting anywhere near as well as they should be. On the minus side, our first base platoon of David Villar (.167/.333/.389 in Chapter One) and Luis Rivas (.151/.262/.226) is just about useless.

To help address that first base issue, and also to solve our quickly-approaching usage issues, I made a deal with the Flagstaff Peaks in which we added first baseman Wilmer Flores and reliever Chase De Jong. At first glance, adding a guy who is hitting .218/.288/.406 this season hardly seems like an upgrade. However, we believe Flores will enjoy hitting in The Sand Trap, and he brings a stellar Vg glove with him as well.

De Jong currently leads the Peaks with a 2.35 ERA in 23 innings. He's allowed just 13 hits and 8 walks, and has struck out 19. We have some serious usage issues in our bullpen already, so his innings will greatly help there.

In exchange, we had to part with yet another outstanding young prospect. Just add Aiden Miller's name to a LOOOOOOOONG list of prospects we regret trading. I believe this kid has the potential to be the next Austin Riley. However, we have a logjam at third base on our farm, with Brayden Taylor and Brock Wilken both having outstanding seasons in the NCAA this year. They're likely closer to the big leagues than Miller, and we have to give something to get something, so...that explains why I made that decision.

In an ideal world, that would be the last trade I make this year. I don't want to give up any more of our prospects, and we have enough usage and firepower to get by this year. I fully expect us to fall back into second place at some point over the next six weeks, but if that doesn't happen, I may be forced to make a bigger move. Time will tell.

Chapter One Review

The premise of this game we play is that the actual on-field MLB performance of each player, measured by his statistics, determines the outcomes of the events within the game. The makers of this game assure its customers that, although there can be random fluctuations in any given small sample, the outcomes on the field will be nearly 100-percent accurate given a large enough sample of simulations.

Hmm.

Over the course of 25 seasons, I have often questioned whether or not the above is actually true. I understand how confirmation bias works in the human mind. I'm also aware of the distortion caused by small samples, and how it can affect overall perception. If a single player performs far above or below his MLB performance for any given time period, I can accept this as part of the randomness of this game. But when an entire TEAM performs abnormally...something must be wrong.

Heading into our final two series of this chapter, the Florida Mulligans owned a record of 9-11. We owned the worst team ERA in the league, were outscored by our opponents on the season, and spent more than a few days in last-place in the McGowan Division. Something was wrong.

We then closed out the chapter with a series sweep against the Philadelphia Fightin's, including two walk-off wins in the tenth inning, and then shocked the entire world by taking three of four from the dominant Los Altos Undertakers in our final series of the chapter. As a result, we ended up with a pretty respectable 16-12 record, and have somehow managed to outscore our opponents by a whopping five runs.

Heading into this season, we were expected to have one of the league's best offenses, and one of the league's best pitching staffs. Half of that was true in Chapter One. We hit .264/.351/.415 in the chapter, which is decent-enough, but not as great as we expected.

The one player doing the most to drag this team down was Rafael Devers, who is no stranger to inexplicable slumps. It seems as though he has spent the majority of his BDBL career in an inexplicable slump. In Chapter One, Devers hit just .175/.246/.281. He did not hit his first home run of the season until the very last series of the chapter. In fact, the Mulligans as a team hardly hit any home runs in Chapter One. We hit just 25 as a team, which is less than half the total (57) posted by the Darien Blue Wave.

The most inexplicable part about Chapter One was the performance of our pitching staff. We own a 4.94 team ERA, which currently ranks third-from-last in the OL. The poster child for our Chapter One pitching staff was Framber Valdez. According to his MLB numbers, Valdez should be a Cy Young candidate in the BDBL. Instead, he posted a 5.71 ERA in seven starts. He allowed far more hits (52) than innings (41) and walked nearly four batters per nine. In MLB, Valdez owned a H/9 rate of just 7.4 and walked just 3.0 per nine.

In MLB, Valdez set an all-time MLB record for consecutive quality starts. In Chapter One, Valdez gave us just three quality starts in seven attempts (a rate that is roughly half his MLB rate.) In MLB, Valdez held left-handed hitters to a miniscule .192/.274/.231 batting line. In the BDBL, lefties clobbered him to the tune of .350/.458/.350.

In other words, the "Framber Valdez" who pitched for us in Chapter One bears no resemblance whatsoever to the actual Framber Valdez who actually pitches in MLB.

Valdez's MLB teammate Luis Garcia also had a miserable first chapter. He posted a 6.23 ERA in five starts, and also allowed more hits than innings. Ranger Suarez (8.56 in five starts) also had a miserable start to this season. Combined, Valdez, Garcia, and Suarez went 4-10 in Chapter One. Folks...that's not good. Those are three very good pitchers in reality. I have no idea how all three could simultaneously fall into such a slump in simulations.

Prior to those final two series, I had assumed that I would be throwing in the towel on this season. There is no point to doing so this early in the MLB season, so the plan was to wait until that season begins to form before pulling that trigger. Now that the Mulligans are finally beginning to play the way I expected they would play, I am less certain about throwing in that towel than I was last week.

We'll give it another chapter and reassess when the time comes. If we decide to go for it, we'll need a lot of help. If we decide to throw in that towel, we have some tasty trade bait to offer. Right now, I'm straddling that fence.

2023 Draft Diary

January 15

The draft is designed to break your heart. Each draft begins by targeting specific players who are identified as "must-haves." Each draft begins with targeting some players who you believe are flying under the radar, and would make excellent fliers for next year. Each draft proceeds by watching each and every one of those players disappear from your "short list," snatched up by some other person who will never love those players the same way that you would have. It is heart-breaking.

The 2023 draft has been no different. I identified several players as "must-haves" and did not get any of them. I also identified several who would make excellent fliers for next year. As I write here in the middle of the 17th round, I have seen several of those players snatched up by other teams -- two by the evilist of evil villains, Jeff Paulson. Unfortunately, I cannot take any of those fliers until I fill my starting lineup -- and I am roughly three picks away from doing so.

We desperately needed Will Myers. He filled a void at first base that no other player could possibly fill. He hits lefties, he has full-time usage, and he is excellent defensively. With only eight picks remaining before our pick, the fucking Darien Blue Wave (of all teams) snatched him away. That left us with David Villar as our platoon first baseman. Villar is fine. He hits lefties better than Myers. He plays shitty defense, though. And he doesn't have enough usage for full-time play. Which means we now have to draft yet another player to fill that usage.

I actually believed that would be the final disappointment in this draft. However, it then happened again in the very next round when Skiz Potrafka sniped Donovan Solano with the pick right before ours. Solano was going to be our first baseman, moving Villar to second base, where he's less of a liability. Not anymore.

That leaves us with a first base platoon of Villar and someone named Alfonso Rivas, which has to be the weakest first base platoon in the history of first base platoons.

What an epic disaster this entire winter has been.

2023 Florida Farm Report

Now that Adley Rutschman has (FINALLY! THANK YOU, BALTIMORE ORIOLES GENIUSES!) moved on to the big leagues, and Sal Frelick and Jace Jung were sacrificed to the Altar of Competitiveness this winter, the Florida Mulligans farm system is almost entirely absent of any top-100 prospects. Only Brooks Lee is likely to make the top-100. We had back-to-back #23 rankings in the annual BDBL Farm Report back in 2012-13, but we have never ranked dead-last. Unless something very weird happens between now and next month, that precedent may be set this year.

Just because we rank dead-last, however, doesn't mean we have a bad farm system. In fact, I would boldly claim that we have one of the best in the league! I'll double-down on that bold claim with a bold prediction: if -- IF!! -- we can manage to hold on to most of these players below and resist the urge to trade them (HA!), I believe the Florida farm will rank #1 in that annual BDBL Farm Report by 2025.

Florida's Top Ten Prospects

1. Chase Dollander, p
Born: October 26, 2001 (age 21). B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 192. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #1), 2022.

Background: Dollander is currently ranked as the #1 pitching prospect in the 2023 MLB draft class by pretty much everyone. MLB.com has him at #2 overall, as does Baseball America. He is said to be the best pitching prospect in the draft since Stephen Strasburg, and has been compared to Strasburg and Gerritt Cole in terms of his style of pitching and pure stuff.

Stats: Last year, with the Tennessee Volunteers, Dollander went a perfect 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA. In 79 innings, he allowed just 50 hits, including 7 homers, and 13 walks. He struck out 108 batters and held opponents to a .175 batting average.

The Future: Some pundits are speculating that Dollander will be the first overall pick in this summer's draft. Regardless of where he is chosen, he is our best pitching prospect since Strasburg, who was the #1 overall pick in the 2009 MLB draft.

2. Brooks Lee, ss

Born: February 14, 2001 (22.) B-T: B-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: winter farm draft, 2021 (2nd round).

Background: Lee was selected in the first round (8th pick overall) in the 2022 MLB draft. He enjoyed a very productive college career while playing for his father, Larry, at Cal Poly. He is a switch hitter who mashes from both sides of the plate. He demonstrates good plate discipline, hits to all fields, and possesses at least average power. In the field, he makes all of the routine plays, but will likely move to second or third base down the line.

Stats: In his final season with Cal Poly, Lee hit .357/.462/.664, with 15 homers and a stellar 46/28 BB/K ratio. As a sophomore, Lee not only crushed it in collegiate play, but he also excelled in the Cape Cod League and Team USA. In his professional debut this past year, Lee hit .303/.388/.451 at three different levels, with 4 homers in 122 at-bats.

The Future: Sadly, Trea Turner's contract with the Florida Mulligans expires after the 2024 season. At that point, with any luck, Lee will be ready to slide right into that position. If he ends up at third base, he'll have to wait his turn behind Rafael Devers, who is signed through 2027. Of course, second base is always an option with this franchise.

3. Wyatt Langford, of
Born: November 15, 2001 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 225. Acquired: mid-season draft (pick #4), 2022.

Background: Langford, a junior at the University of Florida, is currently ranked #7 on Baseball America's top prospects list for the 2023 MLB draft. MLB.com ranks him at #3. There is some speculation lately that he could move up all the way to #1 by the time this NCAA season ends. The reason for that is the recent gains he has made defensively, which suggest that he could play a center field role in the big leagues.

Stats: In his sophomore season last summer, Langford hit an impressive .356/.447/.719 with 26 home runs. Those 26 homers tied Matt LaPorta's school record. In addition to his power (which MLB.com assigns a scouting grade of 65 on the 20-80 scale), Langford also owns a 60 hit tool, and is rated above average as a runner and with the glove. This makes him what they call a five-tool player.

The Future: The fall reports on Langford were extremely encouraging. He could very well be selected in the first three picks of the upcoming draft. If Dollander pitches to expectations, that could give the Mulligans two of the first three picks in that draft. Langford should move quickly up the professional ladder, assuming he signs quickly after he is selected. We could see him in a Mulligans uni by 2025.

4. Ethan Salas, c
Born: June 1, 2006 (age 17). B-T: B-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Acquired: midseason draft (pick #2), 2022.

Background: Salas is the consensus best player available in this year's international player pool. MLB.com has called him "one of the best catching prospects in recent history." He has a plus hit tool (rated 50 by MLB.com), excellent strike zone judgment, and can hit with power to all fields. Defensively, he is rated above-average in all areas, including a cannon for an arm. He also has good baseball bloodlines as he is the brother of Marlins infielder Jose Salas. His father, uncle, and grandfather also played professionally.

Stats: Of course, there are no stats available for any of these teenagers who will sign multi-million-dollar deals later this month. It's all about the scouting reports with these kids.

The Future: If Salas lives up to all the hype, we will have a logjam behind the plate with Rutschman likely to man that position for the next decade. It would be a nice problem to have.

5. Felnin Celesten, ss
Born: September 15, 2005 (age 16). B-T: B-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (2nd round), 2020.

Background: Celesten has been among the top-ranked prospects of the 2023 international class for several years now. He's been a top prospect for so long that I acquired him three years ago and he STILL isn't eligible to be signed! According to the scouting reports, he is a generational talent. According to MLB.com, Celesten owns the "highest ceiling of any international prospect in a decade." (And yes, that includes the Great Wander F'ing Franco.) Celesten is said to possess that coveted "five-tool" arsenal. He can hit for power and average, has plus speed, and is very likely to stick at shortstop.

Stats: See my comments on Salas above..

The Future: These 15- and 16-year-old Latin American prospects are all about projection and risk. Mix extremely-high risk with extremely-high reward, and that is what you have with both Salas and Celesten. The odds of winning the lottery are astronomically high, and yet someone always wins. Why should that someone always be Mike Ranney when it comes to these teenagers?

6. Benny Montgomery, of
Born: September 9, 2002 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 200. Acquired: midseason draft (round 4), 2021.

Background: Monty was a first-round pick (8th overall) in the 2021 MLB draft out of high school. He was considered by some scouts to have the best tools in the prep class, with grades in the 60's and 70's across the board. He is a 70-grade runner with a plus arm and plus raw power. As a professional, those scouting reports have proved mostly accurate.

Stats: Monty owns a career batting line of .315/.388/.477 in 302 at-bats. His 60-grade power has not yet translated to professional game play, as he has hit only 6 homers, 21 doubles, and 5 triples to date. His 70-grade speed has translated to a 14/2 SB/CS ratio. The one glaring weakness in his game is his propensity to swing and miss, as he owns a BB/K ratio of 26/86.

The Future: Monty's career could go in any number of directions from this point. He is still just 20 years old, and has yet to play a full season above the Rookie level. I assume the Colorado Rockies will challenge him with an assignment to High-A at some point in this coming year. I believe he will eventually become a big league regular with a power/speed combo and above-average defense in the outfield.

7. Brayden Taylor, 3b
Born: May 22, 2002 (age 21). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Acquired: 2023 farm draft (round 2).

Background: Taylor is one of those players who has no loud tools, but is above-average in every aspect of the game. He can hit for average and power, he runs well, and he's solid defensively. He is among the best pure hitters in this year's draft, has advanced pitch recognition, and owns enough projectible power to hit 20-25 homers on an annual basis.

Stats: Taylor hit .314/.454/.576 with 13 homers for the Texas Christian Horned Frogs last season. As was the case his freshman year, he walked (55) more than he struck out (40). His batting line last season was nearly identical to his line as a freshman: .324/.445/.572.

The Future: From an offensive standpoint, Taylor reminds me a lot of Andrew Benintendi at the same point in his baseball evolution. Benny is probably never going to hit 40 homers, steal 40 bases, or hit .350. He is, however, an asset on our roster. He plays full-time almost every year. He gets on base. He doesn't strike out a lot. He hits both lefties and righties well enough. There is a great deal of value in that type of player. I believe Taylor fits into that type.

8. Aidan Miller, 3b
Born: June 9, 2004 (age 19). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 210. Acquired: 2023 farm draft, round 3.

Background: Miller is currently ranked as the #12 prospect in the 2023 MLB draft by MLB.com, and is ranked #16 by Baseball America. A prep player out of Florida, Miller owns some of the best raw power in this draft class. Playing against some of the best competition in the high school ranks, Miller has shown no trouble handling high velocity.

Stats: N/A.

The Future: You never know what you'll get from a teenage ballplayer. It doesn't matter if they're home-grown or imported from Latin America, Japan, or any other part of the world. Teenagers are teenagers. Sometimes they work out, but most of the time they don't. Building a farm system is like investing in stocks. The most profitable strategy is to diversify across a wide range of options and spread out the risk and reward. Prospects like Miller are the penny stocks.

9. Ryan Noda, 1b
Born: March 30, 1996 (age 27). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 217. Acquired: 2023 farm draft, round 5.

Background: At the opposite end of the risk/reward spectrum sits Ryan Anthony Noda. Bill James coined the phrase "Ken Phelps All-Star" to describe players like Noda. These are prospects who consistently perform well at the upper levels of the minor leagues, but don't get an opportunity to play in The Show until they're in their late-20s or even early-30s. Noda, who was selected by the Oakland A's in the Rule 5 draft, will finally get that opportunity in 2023.

Stats: Last season, playing for the Oklahoma City Dodgers at the Triple-A level, Noda hit .259/.395/.474 with 25 homers and 20 stolen bases in 24 attempts. He drew 92 walks, but also struck out 162 times.

The Future: What you see is what you get: a first baseman who will hit for power, won't hit for a high average, will draw lots of walks, and strike out a ton. He has a bit more speed than most first basemen, and is reportedly excellent defensively. He is probably better than at least 10 MLB first basemen right now. Noda could very well be our everyday starting first baseman in 2024, which isn't bad for a fifth round farm draft pick!

10. Luis Morales, p
Born: September 24, 2002 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 176. Acquired: 2023 farm draft, round 4.

Background: Morales escaped from Communist Cuba in September of 2021, and was declared a free agent last August. He is expected to sign a record-breaking bonus from the international bonus pool. The Oakland A's are reportedly the heavy favorites to sign him. Morales offers a fastball that tops out in the triple digits. His breaking ball is considered to be above-average, and his changeup is a work-in-progress. He is ranked #5 on MLB.com's 2023 international prospects list.

Stats: Pitching for Cuba's U-18 national team, Morales set a record with 161 strikeouts in 82+ innings.

The Future: Like all young pitching prospects, TINSTAAPP rules apply. Morales could become a "frontline starter" as MLB.com predicts. Or he could flame out like so many other mega-hyped young pitching prospects. One year from now, I'd like to think that Morales will rank much higher on this list, but, as with every other player on this page, there are no guarantees.

2023 Farm Draft Diary

I don't think I can recall a farm draft from any past season that I was less excited about than this one. There isn't a single player on my lengthy draft list who excites me. There isn't a single player who has a better than 50/50 chance of ever seeing the big leagues. What the fuck is the point of this? What a monumental waste of time. And now we get to fill in 20 farm spots instead of 15. I hate each and every person who voted for this farm expansion.

But enough about me and my seething hatred. Let's take a look at my top ten. As I type, we are four picks into this draft, and already, I've seen one player selected who was not on my radar at all. That player, Jackson Merrill, happens to be the #22 prospect in baseball according to FanGraphs. I know who he is. He was on my list a year ago. I assumed someone had taken him already. No matter how much time I waste-- er, spend-- researching for this stupid fucking farm draft, I always miss someone. This year is no exception.

Top Ten:

1. Bryan Ramos, 3B, ChW
2. Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
3. Brayden Taylor, 3B, Texas Christian
4. Miguel Bleis, OF, Bos
5. Derek Curiel, OF, HS
6. Aiden Miller, 3B, HS
7. Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami
8. Rhett Lowder, P, Wake Forest
9. Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
10. Colt Keith, 3B, Det

My #1 choice is a guy who has been described as "projects as solid-average regular in MLB." That is how exciting this draft is. That list above is completely interchangeable. Swap #10 for #1 and I'd be fine with it. It literally doesn't matter.

Winter Trades Wrap-Up

It looks like we're done trading for the winter, so it's probably safe to post this wrap-up of our winter trades. Maybe.

The very first item on our winter to-do list was to somehow jettison $4 million, as we were sitting $4 million above the cap heading into this winter trading season. My first inclination was to trade Framber Valdez along with one of our expensive free agents from last year. As much as I didn't want to trade Framber, it seemed like he was our best (only?) trade chit.

We initially asked for what I thought was an extremely reasonable package deal from the Los Altos Undertakers, but GM Paulson balked at that deal. Instead of getting the fifth-place pitcher in the AL Cy Young voting, Paulson ended up with the NL Cy Young winner. It's good to be Jeff Paulson.

For reasons I still can't explain, we received very little interest in Valdez. I guess people are turned off by guys with 200+ innings, a sub-3.00 ERA, and an MLB record 25 consecutive quality starts. So, I moved on to Plan B.

The one and only ranked prospect we have on our farm is Sal Frelick, so of course he had to go. This may be the year where we rank dead-last in the BDBL Farm Report with a grand total of zero points. Flagstaff GM Greg "Hoss" Newgard was kind enough to take Frelick off our hands, along with $6 million in mostly-useless Steven Matz salary. Oh, and we had to throw in the best pitcher from the 2022 draft, Connor Prielipp, just to make it fair.

With that monkey off our backs, I was able to focus on improving our 2023 team as cheaply as possible. Ravenswood GM Brian "Skiz" Potrafka began inquiring about Lance Lynn and/or Ranger Suarez. Both have good value this year, but both carry burdensome salaries. Dumping one of those salaries was a bonus I hadn't considered. Skiz was more interested in Lynn, so I offered him in exchange for somewhat-useful bullpen arm Buck Farmer. Done deal.

With several holes to fill on our active roster, and very little money to fill those holes (even after those two trades above), I was able to fill a gaping hole in the outfield with the $500,000 bat of Austin Slater. He cost us Ricardo Cabrera, who will now become the next Wander F'ing Franco, guaranteed. Unfortunately, Slater can only play about four chapters this year, so we'll have to find someone to fill those other two.

Paulson floated a bunch of names on the Selling forum, including another decent and cheap bullpen arm, Carl Edwards. I sent him some names I'd be willing to trade, and of course he chose the name I least wanted to trade out of the bunch, Enrique Bradfield.

Lastly, Chicago GM John Gill is in the midst of his annual winter purge, where everything must go, go, go! One of those things, A.J. Minter, interested me enough to offer our best remaining prospect, Jace Jung. Minter (70 IP, 418/608 splits) automatically becomes our closer.

As it stands, we look pretty good pitching-wise:

Starting rotation
1. Shohei Ohtani: 166-124-14-44-219, 636/518
2. Framber Valdez: 201-166-11-67-194, 505/621
3. Ranger Suarez: 155-149-15-58-129, 538/757
4. Jon Gray: 127-105-17-39-134, 731/602
5. Luis H. Garcia: 157-131-23-47-157
6. J.P. Sears: 70-67-8-23-51, 684/723

Bullpen
1. A.J. Minter: 70-49-5-15-94, 418/608
2. David Bednar: 52-42-4-16-69, 545/670
3. Buck Farmer: 47-36-2-25-54, 683/563
4. Ryan Tepera: 57-42-7-20-47, 625/614
5. Carl Edwards: 62-51-8-25-56, 628/673

We're only about 50 innings short in the rotation and 120 innings short overall. Hopefully we can pick up some under-appreciated arms for cheap in the draft. I feel good about both the rotation and bullpen. Ohtani and Valdez are studs. The bullpen isn't Undertakers good, but it's good enough. We should be okay pitching-wise.

The offense is a different story. We have some good bats, especially against right-handers, but far too many holes to fill and no money to fill them.

Lineup vs. LH
1. Andrew Benintendi, LF: .269/.347/.328
2. Trea Turner, SS: .298/.344/.542
3. Garrett Stubbs, C: .333/.429/.750
4. Shohei Ohtani, DH: .263/.329/.459
5. Austin Slater, RF: .277/.379/.445
6. Rafael Devers, 3B: .272/.315/.424
7. Mark Canha, CF: .241/.335/.398
8. TBD, 1B
9. TBD, 2B

It would have been hugely helpful if Brandon Belt had hit his weight last year. How someone can be so consistently good for so long and then just implode is a true mystery. Likewise, how Brandon Crawford could go from awesome to absolute garbage in the blink of an eye is one of baseball's greatest mysteries. That's what I get for signing Giants. Thanks to those two assholes, I have no one to play on the right side of the infield.

Lineup vs. RH
1. Andrew Benintendi, LF: .318/.384/.428
2. Rafael Devers, 3B: .304/.374/.557
3. Shohei Ohtani, DH: .278/.370/.551
4. Adley Rutschman, C: .280/.386/.503
5. Mark Canha, CF: .280/.385/.405
6. Austin Slater, RF: .246/.350/.361
7. Trea Turner, SS: .298/.342/.440
8. TBD, 1B
9. TBD, 2B

This is actually a pretty good lineup. We still have two glaring holes to fill -- three when Ohtani pitches (unless DMB releases that patch -- LOLOL!) But having five batters with a .370+ OBP in an era where the average OBP has plummeted to just .312 is pretty damn good.

After all is said and done, we have $6 million to spend and 15 players to spend it on -- including eight who will have to be carried on the active roster. Needless to say, I'll be watching the auction from the sidelines.