Chapter Three Review

The first half of the 2022 season is now officially in the books for the Salem Cowtippers. We finished Chapter Three with our weakest chapter yet -- a record of 14-10. We won three series -- all against Eck League teams: Cleveland, Charlotte, and Chicago. We did not sweep a single series this chapter, and we finally lost our first series of the season, to Akron.

That Akron series is notable for Game Three, which will go down in history for all the wrong reasons. Framber Valdez allowed ten earned runs before recording his third out. We then brought position player Abraham Almonte into the game, and he coughed up three more runs before that final out was mercifully recorded. That 13-run first inning likely stands as a league record. We ended up losing that game by an embarrassing score of 16-2.

That game perfectly highlights an issue that I can't help but notice about this 2022 team. We consistently beat up on bad teams and struggle against the good ones. We are 27-5 against the Darien Blue Wave, North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs, Flagstaff Peaks, South Loop Furies, and Lake Norman Monsters. We are 14-14 against the Las Vegas Flamingos, Ravenswood Infidels, Akron Ryche, Bear Country Jamboree, and Blacksburg Beamers. In fact, we don't own a winning record against any of those five teams.

The lone exception is that we own a 4-0 record against the Los Altos Undertakers, who are a good team (although they probably won't make the playoffs.) There is an exception to every rule, I suppose. The lack of success we've had against good teams tells me we will struggle in the postseason regardless of how dominant we seem to be overall.

Overall, we look like a champion on paper. We own a .700 winning percentage, which puts us on pace for a 112-win season. We have outscored our opponents by 176 runs, which puts us on pace for a runs differential of 352. In the 23-year history of the BDBL, seven teams have reached those two figures:

2002 Allentown Ridgebacks: 113 wins, +433 

2010 Los Altos Undertakers: 113 wins, +378

2013 New Milford Blazers: 113 wins, +356

2015 Los Altos Undertakers: 116 wins, +404

2016 Los Altos Undertakers: 128 wins, +437

2017 New Milford Blazers: 120 wins, +413

2017 Los Altos Undertakers: 117 wins, +373

Of those seven teams, only four (the '02 Ridgebacks and the last three Undertakers teams) won the championship. If we expand the criteria a tiny bit, we can find four other teams that dominated almost equally:

2002 Salem Cowtippers: 112 wins, +344 

2012 New Milford Blazers: 111 wins, +324

2016 Kansas Law Dogs: 115 wins, +343

2018 Flagstaff Outlaws: 115 wins, +299

None of those four teams won the championship. In other words, merely winning a lot of games and outscoring your opponents by a shit-ton of runs during the regular season is no guarantee of ultimate success.

***

Our pitching, which was our greatest asset for the first two chapters, completely fell apart in Chapter Three. We posted a 4.06 ERA for the chapter, although if you remove that one game against Akron, it falls to 3.55. Unfortunately, we can't remove that Akron game, either from the record book or from our memory.

It seems as though every one of our pitchers was beaten up at some point this chapter. The normally-reliable righty-killer Luis A. Garcia was lit up by both Chicago and Akron. Luis H.Garcia was crushed by both Cleveland and Myrtle Beach, allowing 11 earned runs in only 9 innings. Jon Gray tossed a no-hitter against Cleveland, but was then toasted by Myrtle Beach for six earned runs in only three innings.

Steven Matz was brutalized by Cleveland for eight runs (six earned) in five innings, and was also lit up by Bear Country (6 ER in 6.1 IP.) Shohei Ohtani was brilliant against Charlotte and Myrtle Beach, but was absolutely pounded by Chicago (5 ER in 6 IP) and Bear Country (5 ER in 4.2 IP.) Then, of course, there was Valdez.

Overall, Chapter Three aside, we have to be very happy with the performance of our bullpen. Ranger Suarez (8-0, 1.72 ERA), David Bednar (2-0, 2.09), and Joe Kelly (3-0, 2.10) all deserve some consideration for the all-star team. Shohei Ohtani (8-0, 3.41) deserves consideration to start that game. Aside from Ohtani, the rest of the starting rotation is rather mediocre -- which is sort of what we expected. The only exception there is that we expected Lance Lynn to compete for a Cy Young award. Instead, he's gone a modest 9-4 with a 3.53 ERA.

***

On the offensive side, it is difficult to complain. We currently lead the league (by a lot) with 461 runs scored, which puts us on pace for 900+ for the season. Our .819 team OPS currently tops the entire BDBL. We rank among the top three in the BDBL in on-base percentage, home runs, triples, and walks. (Of course, all of that can change as teams continue to play this chapter.)

Brandon Crawford (.333/.397/.609, 17 HR, 53 R, 52 RBI) deserves some MVP votes if he can keep up this pace in the second half. Brandon Belt (.264/.363/.582, 19 HR) has been worth every penny we paid for him last winter, and I believe the best is still yet to come. Ohtani (.224/.360/.515, 23 HR, 54 RBI) has been a productive beast on both sides of the ball, deceptive batting average notwithstanding.

Rafael Devers (.243/.311/.514, 22 HR, 60 RBI) can't seem to get on base, but his power allows us to forgive him for it. We got a lot of flak for going "Type H" on Mark Canha, but man, has that guy produced! He's hitting .280/.403/.471 overall, and ranks #2 on our team in runs created (54.3), behind Crawford and ahead of Ohtani!

All of the above players deserve some consideration for the all-star team. If not for their low usage numbers, both of our catchers -- Austin Nola (.340/.414/.456) and Zack Collins (.261/.408/.478) -- would deserve consideration as well.

Of course, the one guy who has disappointed beyond belief is Trea Turner. He should be posting MVP numbers for us, just as he did in MLB last year, when he posted the top WAR in baseball. Instead, he's hitting a paltry .253/.311/.401. He can't get on base, he can't steal bases (just 9-for-14 in that category), and he isn't racking up the extra base hits we expected he would. His performance this season has been an absolute head-shaking mystery.

***

As mediocre as our Chapter Three performance was, we managed to end on a high note. When Jon Gray allowed seven straight batters to reach base in the third inning of our final game against Myrtle Beach, it appeared as though we were on the verge of another Valdez-like collapse that would have resulted in another embarrassing double-digit loss and the second series defeat of the chapter.

With the bases loaded and one out, Gray struck out the dangerous Dylan Carlson. He then whiffed the not-so-dangerous opposing pithcer, Zach Thompson, to wriggle out of the inning. "Only" three runs scored that inning. It could have been far worse.

Faced with a 6-1 deficit, I have watched this Cowtippers team roll over and die far too many times over the years. For a while, it appeared that this team would die, too, as they struggled to make contact against Thompson. But then Trea Turner -- of all people! -- made it a one-run game with his two-run single in the fifth inning.

Crawford then tied the game in the sixth, and pinch hitter Chad Pinder put us ahead in the seventh. Our offense came through in the clutch -- but so did our bullpen, who held the Hitmen scoreless after Gray left the game in the third inning.

Games like that one give me hope that maybe -- just maybe -- we'll be okay in the postseason. When our team performs the way they're supposed to, great things tend to happen.

Chapter Two Review

Thirty-five percent of the way into the 2022 season, the Salem Cowtippers own a winning percentage of .750 and an 18-game lead in the McGowan Division. We own a runs differential of +146, which is far above the next-highest total (although, granted, most of the teams have played fewer than a dozen games in Chapter Two as I type.) We have scored 329 runs, which equates to 5.9 runs per game -- second only to Great Lakes. Our pitching staff owns an ERA of 2.94, which is tops in the entire BDBL.

In other words, I have very little to complain about right now. But I'll do it anyway.

Complaint #1: Trea Turner

It is time to face a harsh reality: the Trea Turner who plays for us is not the same Trea Turner who plays baseball for a living in real life. The real-life version was the best player in baseball last year, according to WAR. That version of Turner hit for power (28 HR), stole lots of bases (32), hardly ever got caught (86% success rate), got on base (.375), and performed well against right-handed pitching (.305/.353/.475). The version of Turner who plays for us does none of those things.

Our version of Turner, his evil twin, is a rather mediocre-hitting (.258/.323/.397) second baseman who strikes out a shit-ton (45 in 229 AB), gets on base less than one-third of the time he steps to the plate (.323), doesn't hit for much power (6 HR), grounds into a shitload of double plays (9, second in the OL), can't ever get a decent jump, gets thrown out or picked off when he does (60% success rate), and can't hit righties to save his life (.239/.289/.351).

It's time to stop pretending that eventually our evil twin's performance will improve, and start treating him like the player he actually is. That means moving him down the lineup and perhaps replacing him if a replacement can be found. The problem is that his right-handed bat breaks up all of the lefties in our lineup, and there is no one else, outside of possibly Mark Canha, who can fill that role.

Complaint #2: Ryan Tepera

We have never had a traditional "closer" in the history of the Salem franchise. BDBL Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera recorded our all-time high for saves in a season, way back in 2014, with 37. Huston Street (34 in 2015) is the only other reliever in franchise history to record 30+ saves. In general, we often use our best reliever in non-save situations when the game is nevertheless on the line. That "best reliever" this year is supposed to be Ryan Tepera.

Tepera has now thrown roughly half as many innings in the BDBL as he did in MLB, and has already surrendered more home runs (6) than he did all year in MLB (4). He has already blown more saves (5) than he did in MLB (4). This past chapter, he cost us two games that should have been easy saves. He blew a 5-0 lead against the Flagstaff Peaks and a 5-3 lead against the Blacksburg Beamers.

Like Turner, maybe it's time to adjust our expectations to this new "reality" and move Tepera down the pecking order in our bullpen. The only other option is to keep stubbornly inserting him into tight games at our own peril.

That's All

That's it, really. Just two major complaints. Frankly, this represents an all-time franchise record for fewest complaints at this point in the season. Certainly compared to last season, this one has been a complete and utter joy.

There are still some tweaks I'd like to make before trading season ends. If that doesn't happen, and I have to head into the postseason with this roster, I'd be okay with that. It wouldn't be the end of the world. We have some usage issues, for sure, but it's nothing that the free agent scrap heap can't solve.

Notable Notables

Let's end this on a positive note by recognizing some outstanding performances to date:

• Shohei Ohtani. My god. The man has been everything we hoped he would be this year. He's a perfect 6-0 on the mound, with a 2.86 ERA. He currently shares the league lead in home runs (17) with teammate Rafael Devers. He owns the third-highest OPS (.938) on the team. He's just an all-around beast.
• Brandon Crawford. If not for Ohtani, you could argue that Crawford is the MVP of this team, and possibly the Ozzie League. He's hitting .333/.403/.571 in the leadoff spot while playing spotless defense.
• Our catching platoon. I was a bit worried heading into this season that we would have a dead spot in our lineup regardless of who we played behind the plate. I targeted Zack Collins and Austin Nola in the draft as a possibly decent platoon. I had no idea they would be this good. Collins (.272/.413/.509) and Nola (.344/.425/.469) have been outstanding at the bottom of our lineup all season. It's a shame they'll both run out of usage soon.
• Brandon Belt. We expected Belt to be a major asset in the middle of our lineup, and he has not disappointed. He's hitting .276/.370/.644 overall, with 16 homers and 42.7 runs created. He strikes out a shit-ton (50 in 174 AB), but gets the job done when he makes contact.
• Steven Matz. Where on earth did this guy come from? A 1.84 ERA in 44 innings? A perfect 5-0 record? Who is this guy? I targeted Matz in the auction because I thought he'd be a relatively-inexpensive innings-eater this year, and would thrive in St. Louis in MLB. I never expected him to be this much of an asset in the '22 BDBL season.
• Our bullpen other than Tepera. Luis A. Garcia, Joe Kelly, Ranger Suarez, Jake McGee, David Bednar, and Dominic Leone are a combined 15-3, with a 2.25 ERA in 147+ innings. It doesn't get much better than that.

Chapter One Review

Normally, I would use this space to divide our chapter into good, bad, and ugly. Given that we won 23 games, it seems a little whiny to even mention any bad or ugly aspects of this team at the moment. It's all good. Out of our seven series last chapter, we swept three of them and won three others. Only the Bear Country Jamboree managed to play us to a split.

We outscored our opponents by nearly 100 runs (+92). We went 14-2 at home, and 10-2 against the teams in our division. We hit .269/.355/.491 as a team. We posted a 2.49 team ERA, and held our opponents to a miniscule .557 OPS. The next-lowest OPS allowed, as of press time, is over 100 points higher (.681.)

Brandon Crawford (.381/.430/.619) deserves some consideration for OL Hitter of the Chapter. Andrew Benintendi (.316/.379/.506) had a very surprising chapter. Our two catchers, Austin Nola (.300/.382/.400) and Zack Collins (.220/.361/.407), were also surprisingly effective. Lorenzo Cain (.271/.364/.458) was yet another surprise.

Rafael Devers (.270/.312/.609) led the team with 11 home runs and 27 RBI's. Our two big offensive free agent signings, Brandon Belt (.264/.360/.621) and Mark Canha (.300/.434/.463), were also significant contributors.

Even Trea Turner (.265/.331/.469) and Shohei Ohtani (.232/.362/.547), whose numbers paled in comparison to their MLB performances, still proved to be valuable members of our lineup.

On the pitching side, our bullpen was as good as advertised. Dominic Leone (1.69 ERA), Jake McGee (1.69), Luis A. Garcia (1.93), Ryan Tepera (2.04), Joe Kelly (2.16), and Gregory Soto (2.70) were particularly effective.

Our swing man, and highest-paid player, Ranger Suarez, proved to be worth every penny. He went 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in 25+ innings, with two starts and 15 appearances out of the bullpen.

Our starting rotation was as effective as we thought it would be -- only in reverse. We expected Lance Lynn (4-2, 4.83 ERA in 31+ IP) and Framber Valdez (1-0, 4.43 in 20+) to be our best starters. We expected Jon Gray (3-1, 1.88 in 24), Luis H. Garcia (1-0, 2.79 in 19+), and Steven Matz (0-0, 2.45 in 18+) to be back-end guys. They all flipped roles.

Then, there was Ohtani, who not only delivered a strong performance at the plate, but went 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA on the mound. Could he be the first-ever person to win the Hitter AND Pitcher of the Chapter awards?

Of course, we have to be careful not to get too excited about this start to the season. We went 20-8 in Chapter One a year ago, and we all know how that ended. Still, it's better to start hot than cold.

I do see some usage issues creeping up on us already, as we really overtaxed some of our best players last chapter. I was hoping to fill a couple of those holes through trade, but at the moment, it's a seller's market and the sellers are asking unreasonable prices -- or just being rude AF assholes for no particular reason. So, we'll wait it out. As it stands, we have only one player on our farm and reserve rosters that anyone wants, and Adley Rutschman will not be going anywhere.

2022 Salem Farm Report

The Salem farm system ain't what it used to be. Last year at this time, we owned the #3 farm system in the BDBL. This year, one man is preventing us from finishing dead-last. That man, Adley Rutschman, is our #1 prospect for the third -- and hopefully last -- year in a row. He is the unanimous #1 prospect in all of baseball, which is the fifth time in history that our franchise has owned the #1 prospect.

Once Adley finally graduates to the big leagues, we will be banking on a second wave of prospects to graduate from high school, college, and international leagues to the pros, replenishing our system. That's the plan, anyway.

Salem's Top Ten Prospects

1. Adley Rutschman, c
Born: February 6, 1998 (age 24). B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 208. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2018.

Background: Rutschman was the #1 overall pick of the 2019 MLB draft after a stellar career with at the University of Oregon. He is FanGraph's only 70-grade prospect, with above-average scouting grades for hitting, power, defense, and arm. In addition to his on-field tools, he is also reported to be a leader in the clubhouse.

Stats: Although he was ready for the big leagues the moment he left Oregon, Adley has now wasted three of the prime years of his career in the minor leagues. He split last year between Double-A (.271/.392/.508 in 295 AB) and Triple-A (.312/.405/.490 in 157), where he proved, once again, that he belongs in the big leagues.

The Future: Now that it appears that Adley will finally get his chance to make the big club, we now have to wait to see if there is a big league season in 2022. The moment he makes his MLB debut, he will be the best catcher in MLB. He is a once-in-a-generation talent. We have grown unbelievably impatient to add his bat to our lineup. Enough is enough. Let's go.

2. Brooks Lee, ss

Born: February 14, 2001 (21.) B-T: S-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: winter farm draft, 2021 (2nd round).

Background: Lee is currently ranked as the #5 prospect in the 2022 MLB draft by MLB.com, and is ranked #6 by FanGraphs. A shortstop with Cal Poly, Lee was the co-winner of the Big West Player of the Year award last year. He then followed that impressive spring with an even more impressive summer for Team USA and the Cape Cod League.

Stats: With Cal Poly, Lee hit .342/.384/.626 with 10 homers in 222 at-bats. In one 21-game stretch in the Cape League, he hit .405/.432/.667 with six homers in just 84 at-bats.

The Future: Lee is poised to become a very early pick in the MLB draft this year. By the time he reaches the big leagues, Trea Turner's Cowtippers contract will be nearing its end, and Lee can slip right into the shortstop position. Of course, it's more likely that Lee moves to another position before then. It's even more likely that we trade him before he reaches his superstar potential. Because that's how we roll in Salem.

3. Jace Jung, 2b
Born: October 4, 2000 (age 21.) B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 205. Acquired: mid-season draft (pick #2), 2021.

Background: Jung is currently ranked as the #6 prospect in the 2022 MLB draft by MLB.com and #3 by FanGraphs. A second baseman with Texas Tech, Jung is a bat-first middle infielder with 30-home run potential according to some scouting reports. He owns plus raw power and plate discipline, with few weaknesses at the plate.

Stats: In his sophomore season in '21, Jung hit .337/.462/.697 with 21 home runs and a 49/45 BB/K ratio.

The Future: Baseball America ranks Jung as the best player in the '22 college class. It seems like a safe bet that he will be selected very early in the MLB draft in July. His older brother Josh played at the Triple-A level last year, two years after he was drafted in the early first round. We expect Jace to follow in his footsteps.

4. Brock Wilken, 3b
Born: June 17, 2002 (age 19). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 225. Acquired: 1st round, 2022 winter farm draft.

Background: Ranked by FanGraphs as the #2 prospect in the 2023 MLB draft, Wilken had an outstanding freshman season with Wake Forest, tying the school freshman record for home runs (17). He carried that impressive campaign into the summer, where he was named the Cape Cod League MVP.

Stats: Wilken hit .279/.365/.617 as a freshman, with 17 homers and 11 doubles. He then hit .302 in the Cape League, with 10 doubles and 6 home runs. He also led the summer league in walks.

The Future: Wilken is off to a hot start already, homering twice in Wake Forest's first four games. A lot can happen between now and the 2023 MLB draft, but at the moment he looks like a lock for the early first round.

5. Asa Lacy, p
Born: June 2, 1999 (age 22). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 214. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #2), 2019.

Background: Lacy was the fourth overall pick of the 2020 MLB draft following his second season of dominance at the college level. With a fastball that touches triple digits, a wipeout slider, and two other plus pitches, Lacy was expected to move quickly up the ladder in pro ball. In last year's BDBL Farm Report, he was ranked at #27 overall.

Stats: In his pro debut at High-A Quad Cities, Lacy posted an ugly 5.19 ERA in 14 starts. In 52 innings, he allowed 41 hits and a whopping 41 walks, with 79 strikeouts. His walk rate of 7.1 per nine ranked among the highest in baseball last year. 

The Future: What to make of Asa Lacy? History is filled with pitchers who walked a shit-ton of batters for a year or two in the minors, straightened it out, and became dominant big league pitchers. History is also filled with pitchers who couldn't find home plate in the minors and never made The Show. The KC Royals invested $6.6 million in Lacy, so needless to say, they will do everything they can to get him there. How he develops as a pro rests entirely on whether or not he can get his control back to where it was in his college days.

6. Ricardo Cabrera, ss
Born: October 31, 2004 (age 17). B-T: R-R. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 178. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #5), 2021.

Background: Cabrera is currently ranked by both Baseball America and MLB.com as the #3 international prospect in the Class of '21. A natural shortstop with five above-average tools, Cabrera stands out most for his advanced approach at the plate. He is said to have the best bat in his class, with the potential to hit for both average and power at the big league level.

Stats: None to date.

The Future: International prospects are always a crapshoot. Sometimes they become Wander F'ing Franco. More often than not, they become Kevin Maitan. We're obviously hoping that Cabrera falls into that first group -- and that we're not stupid enough to trade him before he gets to that point. 

7. Sal Frelick, of
Born: April 19, 2000 (age 21). B-T: L-R. Ht: 5-9. Wt: 175. Acquired: trade, winter, 2022.

Background: A first-round pick (15th overall) in the 2021 draft, Frelick shot up the charts in his pro debut last year, beginning the year in rookie ball and ending it at the High-A level. As a collegiate player with Boston College, Frelick became one of the most exciting players in college ball with his blazing, 70-grade, speed, athleticism, and contact skills at the plate.

Stats: Sal hit .359/.443/.559 for BC before hitting a combined .329/.414/.466 at three different levels of pro ball. He drew nearly as many walks (21) as strikeouts (25) and stole 12 bases in 14 attempts.

The Future: With his on-base skills and speed, Frelick fits the mold of a prototypical leadoff hitter. He is moving quickly up the ladder, and could reach the big leagues as early as 2023. This year, we hope to see him build on the skills that were on display a year ago, and position himself for a promotion in '23.

8. Benny Montgomery, of
Born: September 9, 2002 (age 19). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 200. Acquired: midseason draft (round 4), 2021.

Background: Benny was a first-round pick (8th overall) in the 2021 MLB draft out of high school. He was considered by some scouts to have the best tools in the high school class, with grades in the 60's and 70's across the board. He is a 70-grade runner with a plus arm and plus raw power.

Stats: In his pro debut at the rookie-level Arizona Complex League, Monty ranked as the #8 prospect in the league by league managers and scouts. He hit .340/.404/.383 in only 14 games (47 AB's), with no home runs and five stolen bases.

The Future: Monty's skills are so raw that it's difficult to know with any degree of certainty how his career will progress from here. The tools are without question. Applying those tools in game situations is another issue entirely. Some scouts feel his long swing will lead to difficulties down the road. Others believe he is athletic enough to adjust to any level of pitching. With his lanky build and long swing, he is often compared to Hunter Pence, which is both good and bad.

9. Thomas White, p
Born: February 1, 2005 (age 17). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-5. Wt: 200. Acquired: midseason draft (3rd round), 2021.

Background: Baseball America calls White "one of the best lefties his age to come around in years." A junior at Phillips Academy in Andover, Massachusetts, White still has another year of high school ball before he reaches draft eligibility. As of now, he ranks as the fourth-best high school player in the Class of '23 by BA and #18 on the FanGraphs 2023 draft list.

Stats: N/A.

The Future: There are few types of prospects that are more of a crapshoot than high school pitchers. A high school junior is 1,000 times the crapshoot of a senior, so it is far too early to speculate about White's draft slot, never mind his pro career. Still, it's nice to have the "best lefty to come around in years" stowed away on the farm club, just in case we win that lottery.

10. Felnin Celesten, ss
Born: September 1, 2006 (age 15). B-T: S-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 180. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (2nd round), 2020.

Background: Celesten has been at the very top of the 2023 international class since he was 13 years old. Scouts place him among the "Mount Rushmore of international free agents" signed over the past decade, along with Wander F'ing Franco, Marco Luciano, and Orelvis Martinez. He has drawn Francisco Lindor comps, and is expected to sign with the Mariners in September for more than $4.5 million.

Stats: N/A.

The Future: Who knows? The only thing I know for certain about Celesten is that I'M NOT FUCKING TRADING HIM! Trading Franco keeps me awake at night, and will continue to haunt me for the next twenty years. I'm not making that same mistake again. If Celesten crashes and burns, I still won't trade him. I will carry his useless carcass on my roster until the end of time if need be.

Chapter One Trades

I was not planning to make any deals prior to Opening Day, but when opportunity knocks, you have to answer the door. After signing Matz, we were still roughly 105 innings short in our starting rotation, and 117 innings short overall. This was not a devastating problem, obviously, because we felt we could either trade for those innings or plug the gap with some unsavory free agents.

Team Sylvester then came calling, offering both Trevor Bauer and Salvador Perez. Bauer (108 IP in MLB) would have perfectly fit those missing innings, and Perez would have filled a gaping hole behind the plate. Perez would also solve another problem that we can't help but notice about our lineup: it is extremely left-handed. Even against left-handed pitching, our lineup is far too left-handed. Perez, with his 50+ homer right-handed power, would have fit better than perhaps anyone else in the game. The problem was the Team Sylvester wanted Adley Rutschman in return. And that is a non-starter.

With Perez off the table, I inquired about Bauer and reliever Jonathan Loaisiga. In the end, a deal was struck: Bauer and a farm guy (who will be released) in exchange for Henry Davis and our last draft pick. Davis' Cowtippers career lasted about as long as I suspected it would when we acquired him. He served his purpose.

Although Bauer was a good fit, there was a better one. So, I reached out to Flagstaff's new owner, Greg Newgard, and gave him an offer he couldn't refuse. In exchange for Bauer and our top-rated prospect, Austin Martin, we received Lance Lynn and a draft pick in return. That pick was then used to select the only catcher currently on our 35-man roster, Austin Nola.

In the end, we traded Henry Davis and Austin Martin for Lynn -- which is the same trade offer we made to Billy Baseball when he owned the franchise.

We prefer Lynn to Bauer for a few reasons. Lynn is a better fit for our ballpark. We estimated that Bauer's slugging allowed would have been about 26 points higher in Salem. It isn't a deal-breaker, and we could have lived with it, but Lynn is simply a better fit. Lynn also has better-balanced splits than Bauer -- not that that would have been a deal-breaker, either. The biggest advantage to Lynn is that he is signed through 2023 at a reasonable salary, whereas Bauer is very unlikely to pitch in MLB this season.

Our entire pitching staff is now complete:

Starting rotation:

• Lance Lynn: 157-123-18-45-176, 677/553 splits
• Luis Garcia: 155-133-19-50-167, 827/548
• Steven Matz: 151-158-18-43-144, 720/727
• Jon Gray: 149-140-21-58-157, 730/753
• Framber Valdez: 135-110-12-58-125, 717/626
• Shohei Ohtani: 130-98-15-44-156, 733/536
• Ranger Suarez: 106-73-4-33-107, 311/600

Bullpen:

• Ryan Tepera: 61-35-4-19-74, 429/559
• David Bednar: 61-40-5-19-77, 531/611
• Joe Kelly: 44-28-3-15-50, 555/535
• Dominic Leone: 54-37-2-22-50, 501/580
• Jake McGee: 60-44-7-10-58, 496/593
• Gregory Soto: 64-46-7-40-76, 495/696
• Luis Garcia: 33-25-2-8-34, 864/367

Our rotation includes three lefties and four righties. Our bullpen includes five righties and two lefties. We can also use Suarez as a swing man -- which seems like the best way to use him. This is at least a division-winning pitching rotation. Of course, we thought the same a year ago, and look what happened.

2022 Preseason Diary: Auction Prep

Cutdown Day is over, and the final list of free agents is now set in stone. We have $37.3 million (third-most in the BDBL) to spend on 16 players. Our needs are:

• 2 catchers
• 2 starting pitchers
• First baseman
• At least one outfielder

Our wants are:

• A lights-out closer
• One more outfielder
• A shortstop vs. lefties

Let's take it position-by-position.

First Base

There are several players we are targeting at the moment. At the very top of our Christmas list is Brandon Belt. He had an absolutely phenomenal year in a ballpark that is extremely tough on left-handers like himself. Put him in our park, and I estimate his slugging percentage would be well over 130 points higher than the .597 average he posted last year.

There are a few problems with Belt, however. First, he is guaranteed to cost at least $6 million, and more likely closer to $7 million. That makes him a Type H player, which guarantees that he'll be paid $7 or $8 million in 2024, which he would be playing at age 35. Second, the guy is constantly injured. In eleven big league seasons, he has managed to reach 500 PA's four times. Third, he had only 381 PA's last year, which means he would have just 419 PA's of usage. Which means we would need to draft another first baseman in addition to him.

I plan to throw $7 million at him and see if it sticks. The problem is that Belt is scheduled to land in the fifth auction lot, and the man that I would want if I don't get Belt is in Lot #4. That man is Yulieski Gurriel. I think teams may shy away from Gurriel because of his age (37), so there is a chance he could fetch less than Belt. Then again, a year ago, 40-year-old Nelson Cruz fetched $7.5 million in the auction, so who knows what the crazy people in this league will do.

If only Belt still played in the outfield, the decision would be easy: draft both! Unfortunately, both men are only rated at first base. In fact, if/when the National League adopts the DH, Belt may end up playing that "position" full-time, leaving us with a very expensive DH for the next two years -- a position already filled by Shohei Ohtani.

Right now, the strategy is to place a $6 million bid on Gurriel. If we get it, great. If not, we go all-in on Belt. If that falls through, then we are mostly screwed. Depending on the pending decision by the Auction Committee, Mark Canha may be available in the draft. If not, Ji-Man Choi will be there. We have the #3 pick in every round, so the worst-case scenario would be to use that pick on one of those two. It wouldn't be ideal, but we could live with it.

Starting Pitching

We need over 380 more innings to fill our starting rotation, which means we need to add two starters just to have enough innings to get through this season (barring trade.) Unfortunately, there aren't many options to choose from. We are looking at one of the weakest pools of starting pitching in league history. This gives us a few options:

Option #1: Go all-in for the best pitchers available. We will take a pass on the 40-year-old Adam Wainwright (although we'll throw a decent bid at him, just in case.) Gerrit Cole and Clayton Kershaw are very likely to be overpriced, so we'll pass on them as well. That leaves Nathan Eovaldi as our top choice. Not only is he a great fit in our ballpark, but I think he will retain good value going forward. The problem is that I estimate it would take $9 million or more to win the bidding on him, given the dearth of quality innings in this draft class.

Option #2: Fill our rotation with mediocre arms and rely heavily on our bullpen. Sonny Gray would be our next logical choice after Eovaldi. Not only would he be a good fit in terms of our ballpark and the innings we need, but we would have the top tie-breaker on him. Steven Matz seems like a decent bet to fill innings this year and have some value over the '23-'24 seasons as well. In a normal year, we could probably sign both pitchers for around $6 million each. This year, that seems doubtful.

Option #3: There is no real appetizing option after the first two. There are only 23 starting pitchers with an adjusted OPS below .800 in this draft, and roughly half of them have fewer than 150 innings pitched. We could try to piecmeal together 380 innings by signing/drafting Ranger Suarez (106 IP, estimated $6M), Carlos Hernandez (85, $5M), and Corey Kluber (80, $5M). This would cost us $16 million -- roughly the same amount that Options 1 and 2 would cost -- but leave us 70 innings short.

These decisions will ultimately have to be made on the fly, as they are entirely dependent on this market. Of course, it all depends on Jeff Paulson as well. He is drafting two picks ahead of me throughout the entire draft, and is very likely to target someone like Hernandez with that third-round pick.

Outfield

There are only a few options that I consider to be palatable here. If Canha is available in the draft, we might be able to snag him with pick #3 in the third round. He would be a perfect fit for Salem. If only we had known Cleveland was planning to cut him, we would have gladly offered some trinket for him and solved one of our glaring issues. Hindsight is 20/20.

Out of all the free agent outfielders, Ketel Marte would be our #1 choice. He's young (28), he has a great track record, he plays the infield as well as the outfield, and I think he'll come more cheaply than expected, since he posted only 374 PA's last year. We could probably go as high as $7 million on him if needed, but I'm not crazy about that price.

The other option would be a combination of Tony Kemp (397 PA, .900 aOPS) and Kevin Kiermaier (390, .817). There really is no full-time outfield option available that makes sense for us, so piecemeal is the way to go. Both Kemp and Kiermaier are lefties, so we'd need to find righty platoon partners for them -- which is usally pretty easy to do.

The nice part about Kemp and Marte is that, because they are rated at second base, we could move Trea Turner over to short and solve our shortstop platoon problem against lefties.

Closer

I would really like to build a world-class bullpen this year. I think we're well on our way to doing so, but adding another arm would seal that deal. My top choice would be Blake Treinen, but I know that he will be a Type H, and we have a club policy never to sign a reliever to a Type H contract. Fortunately, there are about 10,000 other closer-worthy relievers on the market this year. All we need to do is throw a $5M bid on each of them, and we're bound to get one, eventually.

The riskier move would be to wait until the very end and hope to get one at a dirt-cheap price. I'm willing to bet that move would pay off big-time, in theory, but I'm nowhere near ready to put my fake money where my mouth is.

Catcher

I saved the least-important for last. The catching market is completely barren this year. There is only one catcher (Yan Gomes) in the auction and: a) he can't hit righties, and b) he's one of the most error-prone catchers in the league. No, thanks. I'll pass without even placing a bid. (Okay, maybe $1M.)

We've identified two others who would make a good platoon: Zack Collins (231 PA, .710 vs. RH) and Austin Nola (194, .821 vs. LH). The problem is that they don't combine for enough usage to make a full catcher, and would likely cost us two $3M picks just to fill that position.

What we will end up doing, more than likely, is scrapping the entire position and filling it with a couple of $100K picks. Adley Rutschman cannot get here soon enough.

2022 Preseason Diary: The Scherzer Trade

In my last diary entry, I highlighted four holes that will need to be filled this offseason in order for us to field a competitive team in 2022. After looking over our roster once more, I found several more that are fairly significant:

Hole #5: A third starting pitcher

My assumption, up until recently, was that we would only need to add two more mid-rotation inning-eating arms to our rotation. With Scherzer, we were 361 innings short of having a full starting rotation (six innings times 160 games.) After looking at the available free agent pitchers, it became painfullly obvious that adding only two pitchers would not suffice. There simply aren't enough free agents available with that number of innings in MLB '21.

Hole #6: A shortstop against left-handers

Brandon Crawford hit just .244/.300/.422 against lefties in MLB. It wouldn't kill us to start him against southpaws, but he certainly wouldn't be an asset. If we plan to be a competitive team in '22, we probably shouldn't head into the season with three potential liabilities in our lineup.

Hole #7: Shohei Ohtani

Despite his likely defensive liability, we have Ohtani penciled into our lineup against both lefties and righties. The problem is that we also plan to use him as a starting pitcher. That is roughly 24 games this season. On those 24 occasions, who will take Ohtani's place in the outfield? As it stands, we have Yadiel Hernandez with a little over 100 PA's in usage against lefties. Against right-handers, we would have only one viable outfielder, Andrew Benintendi. The problem is that he isn't much (.264/.318/.437) with the bat. This leaves us with a mostly-empty outfield against right-handers!

In addition to these glaring holes, there are also some "nice to have" items on our Christmas shopping list, including a shut-down closer, a decent-hitting catcher, and a backup infielder.

With Scherzer, we had $20.1 million left to spend on 13 players. We decided on a budget of:

• Steven Matz: $6M
• Brandon Belt: $6M
• Another SP: $3M
• Yet another SP: $2M
• Catcher: $1M
• Backup catcher: $500K
• Shortstop vs. LH: $100K
• One more reliever: $100K
• Four scrubs: $400K

The problem here is that we're spending $20.1 million to fill a bunch of holes with a lot of below-average players. And this is the best-case scenario! The odds of signing both Matz and Belt to $6M each are astronomically-low -- especially given the "X-factor" of Billy Romaniello throwing money around like Robert Deniro in Goodfellas.

After realizing that this wasn't a very good plan, I began to wonder what our budget would look like if you removed Max Scherzer's $15.5 million salary from the equation. Our spending budget would balloon to $35.5 million! Which would make our auction/draft budget look something like this:

• Steven Matz: $6M
• Brandon Belt: $6M
• A.J. Pollock: $7M
• Another starter: $5M
• Yet another starter: $2M
• Catcher: $3M
• Backup catcher: $500K
• SS vs. LH: $500K
• Top-notch closer: $5M
• Four scrubs: $400K

Wow! What a difference! I plugged Pollock in there at $7M, just to show the quality of the type of player we could add for that kind of money. I really would not want to sign Pollock at that price, but he would be an excellent fit for us. Instead of spending $5 million on two starting pitchers, we could spend $7 million on two. The difference in quality there would be substantial. Likewise, we could add an actual closer to the bullpen, which would push all of our other relievers down a notch. And we would have a much better catcher at $3 million than $1M.

There is no doubt that we would have a much better, much deeper, team without Scherzer. We placed him on the block, and after a week or so, made an offer to the Ravenswood Infidels: Luis Garcia and Henry Davis for Scherzer. Ravenswood GM Brian Potrafka asked us to throw in Matt Wisler, and we sealed the deal.

There is no doubt we downgraded our rotation. In fact, we probably just gave away the OL Cy Young award winner (unless the league decides to unjustly reward Gerrit Cole yet again.) Our franchise's philosophy, since the very beginning, has been to feature a strong starting rotation. That philosophy ended with last season's debacle. It's time to try something new.

Garcia has some serious split issues (827/548), which will cause problems against the many BDBL teams that like to fill their lineups with lefties against such pitchers. Garcia will likely face twice as many lefties in the BDBL this season as he did in MLB. But that's okay. He has 170 innings of usage, and absolutely dominates right-handers. There is some good value there, if we use him correctly.

Davis is a guy we don't really "need" thanks to the presence of Adley Rutschman on our roster. He can serve us in one of two ways. First, although scouts praise his arm strength, there are many legitimate questions about his blocking, game-calling, and framing skills behind the plate. It's quite likely that he will move to another position over the next year or two, and we could use a power-hitting first baseman or corner outfielder. Second, he could become very valuable trade bait -- which is something we lack at this point.

Normally, I like to stay as far away from the auction as possible. It has been many years since we had this much money to spend, but this auction class does not look as though it is worth the money. As with every auction class, it is filled with aging veterans who are unlikely to be worthy of their salaries a year from now. The last thing we want to do is handcuff our 2023 and 2024 teams for a one-year-only benefit.

Thankfully, Doyle is gone, so the auction's greatest wildcard is now a relic of the past. Unfortunately, he's been replaced by Billy Baseball, who is an even greater wildcard. Billy has told me that he plans to build around the tiny core of players that Doyle left for him, and he has a ton of money to do so. The last thing Billy should be doing is blowing money on aging veterans in this auction/draft, but it appears that is his plan.