January 1:
It's the first day of the auction, and already we are faced with a dilemma. We have $5 million budgeted for a reliever. Our one pressing need is a right-handed reliever who dominates righties, while keeping lefties in check. There are two pitchers in this auction that fit this criteria better than most: Kenley Jansen and Scott Barlow.
Jansen is 34 years old. Las Vegas has the tie-breaker on him. There is no reason on God's green earth for Johnny Bo to pay $5 million for a reliever, given his team's situation, but he has a crazy amount of money to spend. It seems highly-plausible that he goes the max on Jansen before Type H kicks in -- and no one in his right mind would go Type H.
That leaves Barlow, who just happens to be in Lot #1. Cleveland currently owns the high bid at $3.5M, and we're only a few hours into the auction. No one owns the ultimate tie-breaker on Barlow, but the Rocks just barely edged us for the tie-breaker on wins.
Would Mike Stein go all-in on a middle reliever at $5M this early in the auction? If he does, could we get Jansen? If not, what's our backup plan? Already, this auction is stressing me out, and it just began!
January 2:
Barlow's price is now $4.5 million, and is almost certain to reach $5M by tomorrow night when his auction ends. We will pass, and hope that one of the many other relievers falls to us at $5M or below. Meanwhile, I can't help but notice how shitty these lots are arranged. It is hard to imagine a way that they could be ordered more poorly from my perspective.
The first basemen that I want to sign are: Brandon Belt, Yuli Gurriel, and Mark Canha. In that order. Unfortunately, they are available in reverse order in this auction. Canha is in Lot #3, Gurriel in Lot #9, and Belt in Lot #10. This creates a massive dilemma. If we win the bid on Canha, we can move him to the outfield. No big deal. If we win the bid on Gurriel, then we can't possibly bid on Belt -- which would be an absolute shame, as he will be a BEAST this year. If we gamble by waiting for Belt, and our $7 million bid isn't enough, then we're absolutely screwed at the first base position.
We see the same type of dilemma, to a lesser extent, among the starting pitchers. Ranger Suarez is our #1 target, and he appears in Lot #5. We plan to bid $7 million for him, but what if we don't get him? Eduardo Rodriguez would be our second choice, but he's in Lot #2. Sonny Gray would be choice number three, but he's in Lot #4.
Nathan Eovaldi is also in Lot #4. He would be our actual first choice, but I assume he'll be too expensive. But what if he's not? What if we submit a bid of $9 million, and it sticks? Placing an emergency backup bid on Gray would be the wise thing to do, but if -- as we expect -- the last bid on Eovaldi isn't made within seconds of 10:00, then there won't be time to do so.
Ah, the frustration and pressure of the auction. Isn't it wonderful?
January 3:
My primary goal in this auction is to sign undervalued players who will perform better than their MLB numbers suggest, who won't cost as much as the top-tier players, and who will have good value over the next two years. Eduardo Rodriguez fits this description better than anyone in this year's auction class.
I have projected that Rodriguez's ERA in the BDBL this year will be at least 1.5 runs lower than the 4.74 ERA he posted in MLB. I also believe that he will be a good bet going forward, given the contract he just signed with Detroit.
I placed a $6 million bid on E-Rod, in the belief that no one would ever bid higher for a pitcher with only 157 innings pitched and a 4.74 ERA. I figured if someone were foolish enough to do so, then have at it. As of mid-afternoon yesterday, the bid for E-Rod stood at just $4 million, and I was feeling very confident that I would sign him.
Then came the text: "You've been outbid."
I wrote in my Draft Preview last week that there was one "fly in the ointment" this winter, and it was Billy T. Baseball. Boy, did that statement ever prove prescient. Billy only has $19 million to spend, and he needs almost an entire pitching staff and half a lineup. He has no business bidding $6 million on any one player -- especially a pitcher with only 157 innings. But Billy being Billy, he went ahead and did it anyway.
Don't get me wrong. Rodriguez is a good pickup for the Blazers. He gives them a few quality innings this year, and will be a reasonably-priced asset next year. He will perform especially well in their home ballpark. But here's the thing...I seriously doubt Billy knew any of this when he placed that $7 million bid on Rodriguez. I seriously doubt he has ever heard of FIP or WAR or BABIP. I seriously doubt he has performed the calculations to adjust for ballpark factors. I think he just saw that I was winning the bid on E-Rod and decided to take over Jim Doyle's position as BDBL Gadfly.
This isn't the end of the world. The auction is still young, and there are still many worthy pitchers to bid on. I have learned my lesson, however, and will not bid on anyone (that I really want) until the last remaining seconds of his auction.
The farm draft was yet another source of incredible aggravation this year. Normally, it is highly unusual for someone to take the next player on my farm list, as we all seem to have different opinions and goals when it comes to building a farm team. Especially in the later rounds of the draft, it is very rare when someone "steals my guy." This year, it happened in every round.
I was debating between taking Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Brock Wilken in Round One when Team Sylvester made that decision for me by taking Yamamoto with the pick just before mine. In Round Two, I patiently waited to draft James Wood, in the mistaken belief that the rest of the league had forgotten about him. Two picks before mine, Niagara took him. My second choice, Colson Montgomery, was then snatched by Team Sylvester, leaving me scrambling to find a third choice. In Round Three, I assumed that no one -- NO ONE -- had their eye on 15-year-old Cuban Brandon Mayea. But Team Sylvester, once again, snatched him away with the pick just ahead of mine.
With no one of any real interest remaining on my draft list, I traded the pick to Myrtle Beach in exchange for their first $100K pick. Hopefully it comes in handy. If not, we sacrificed nothing.
January 4:
The auctions for four of the five players last night ended with a whimper. Not a single last-seconds "snipe" happened, and all four players were won at the same bid that showed at the start of the day. This is the first time in memory that has happened. Maybe this is a new trend, or maybe it's an anomaly. Time will tell. One thing is for sure: the league just handed Akron the Ozzie League title.
I placed $5 million bids on three players: Mark Canha, Avisail Garcia, and Kenley Jansen. I also placed a $9 million bid on Nathan Eovaldi. My bid for Eovaldi is already topped, and I don't think I will go any higher. My bid for Jansen was topped as well, as Charlotte has decided to go "Type H" on a reliever in this auction. I have no interest in doing so, so I will move on to the next of the dozen closers available in this auction.
January 5:
As soon as I placed the bid on Avisail Garcia, I instantly regretted it. His error rate would drive me absolutely insane. After last year's error-filled debacle, I'd like to do everything I can to avoid that this year. Luckily, Mike Stein (and then Bart Chinn) bailed me out of that bid.
It turned out that two people in the league actually thought E-Rod was worthy of a Type H salary, so I don't feel so bad about missing out on him anymore. Best of all, Billy Baseball is now down to $12.5 million with 19 spots left to fill. You would think that would mean he's no longer a problem, but I've been wrong before.
The new "fly in the BDBL ointment" is Mike Stein. The dude has Elon Musk money and is a complete and total wildcard when it comes to spending it. No one knows how he will bid on any given day -- least of all, Stein himself! As I type, he has a winning $7 million bid on Chris Sale. Let's hope that sticks, so at least he'll have a little less to work with.
One thing is for certain, given the bidding that took place yesterday: our odds of signing Ketel Marte went from slim to none. If there was a bidding war over A.J. Pollock, resulting in an outrageous salary of $7.5 million, then what on earth will happen to Marte? We now know that Ravenswood is willing to spend $7.5 million for an outfielder, and the pickings are now slimmer than ever. And guess who owns the ultimate tie-breaker on Marte? Yep. Mike Stein.
It is looking more and more likely that we will have to fill our outfield in the draft portion of this winter signing period. Other than Marte, Tony Kemp is the only outfielder on the board who interests me. I have no idea how much it would take to sign him, but you wouldn't think it would be much.
We're currently winning the bid on Mark Canha at $4 million, but the rub is that Mike Stein is the one driving up his price! Stein, just as a reminder, RELEASED Canha a couple of weeks ago. He could have kept him at $5 million, but instead, tossed him away...and is now willing to pay $4 million for him. Nothing about that makes a lick of sense, but that's what we're dealing with in this auction.
There are two players that I want in this auction so badly that I'm willing to overpay: Ranger Suarez and Brandon Belt. We're currently winning the bid on Suarez at $5.5 million, and I'm willing to go as high as $7M. Belt won't be up for auction until the very last day. I'm already experiencing heart palpitations over that one.
January 6:
The league is having a good laugh at my expense over the fact that I went "Type H" on Mark Canha. But here's the thing: I'm actually happy with that signing. Sure, it would have been nice to sign him for $5 million, but I had originally allocated $6 million for that slot, so I'm getting him below what I had budgeted.
Canha is an excellent fit for our roster in several ways. First, he gives us defensive flexibility, as he is rated at first base and all three outfield positions. We have a hole at first base and another in the outfield. Canha fills both. He also allieviates some of the pressure to sign a first baseman. We can now wait until the last day of the auction to bid on Brandon Belt without worrying about filling that position if we don't win that bid.
I estimate that Canha's slugging percentage will be roughly 45 points higher in the BDBL this year than it was in MLB, due to ballpark factors. That puts his OPS just under .800, which makes him as valuable offensively as Avisail Garcia, who also went for $5.5 million.
Going forward, there is no reason to believe that Canha won't be worthy of his $5.5M/$6.5M salary. He has been an above-average player for four straight years, and is only 33 years old. The New York Mets just signed him to a two-year, $26.5 million contract, so we aren't alone in betting on Canha's future.
As I type, we own the winning bid on Sonny Gray at $5.5 million. His auction ends tonight. Our bid is $6.5 million, so if we get him at or below that amount, I'll be happy. Tomorrow, we will find out if we win the bid on Ranger Suarez. We currently own the top bid at $5.5 million, and our top bid is $7.5 million. If we get both Gray and Suarez, I will consider this auction to be a success. If we get Belt in addition to those two, it will be a tremendous success.
January 7:
Evidently, I was completely delusional in thinking that I might be able to sign Ranger Suarez this winter. The bidding for his 105 innings is now at $9 million, and there are still 13 hours left in his auction. We are, for all intents and purposes, completely screwed.
I need to fill 570 innings in my starting rotation, and the options are all completely nauseating. 40-year-old Adam Wainwright is the best option in terms of 2022 performance, but I'm guessing, with the way this auction is going, that he will cost eight digits. If my goal is to throw away my franchise's future in order to "go for broke" in '22, then Wainwright would be my guy.
After that, we have a cluster of mid-rotation inning-eaters, all of whom share the same characteristics: early-30's, mostly left-handed, unfavorable ballpark factors, 140-180 innings of usage. This group includes Steven Matz, Marcus Stroman, Alex Wood, and Sean Manaea. I don't really want any of them. Of the lot, I would prefer Matz, but the idea of paying $7 million for him (which seems to be the going rate this winter) makes me sick to my stomach.
The problem is that if we pass on that entire group, we're left with some extremely unsavory options. In the auction, we're left with Clayton Kershaw (who will go for an outrageous sum and may never pitch again), 42-year-old Rich Hill, and a steeply-declining Madison Bumgarner. I don't want any of them on my roster.
That forces us to fill 570 innings in the draft. There are two decent pitchers for '22 (Carlos Hernandez and Corey Kluber) who have 80-85 innings each. Tyler Alexander has 106 innings. If we were somehow able to draft all three (which is an absolutely absurd possibility), we would still have 270 innings to fill! We would be forced to draft inning-eaters like J.A. Happ (152+ IP, 5.45 CERA) just to get by. At that point, what would be the point of any of this? We wouldn't be competing this year, so why bother?
For the first time in my BDBL career, I am at a complete loss. I don't know what to do.
January 8:
We passed Plans B, C, D, E, and F a long time ago, and our backs are up against the wall. Our last remaining hope for filling in SOME of the missing holes in our starting rotation rested with Marcus Stroman. Stroman would hardly be our first choice, and hasn't even been mentioned here before because of that, but he belongs to the same cluster of pitchers as Sonny Gray, Adam Wainwright, and Alex Wood. We expect all four of those pitchers to perform relatively equally this coming season. Of the four, we preferred Gray, who went for $7.5 million -- far above what we were willing to pay for him. We were hoping to sneak Stroman through the back door, now that every other team in the league has seemingly exhausted their funds. Or so we thought.
Late yesterday afternoon, the bidding for Stroman -- whose auction doesn't even end until Sunday night -- reached $8 million. That is simply insane. Our last viable option for innings collapsed in that moment, and we were staring at the very real possibility that we would walk away from this auction without a single starting pitcher.
In that moment, I asked: "How can we fix this?" How can I walk away from this auction feeling good about it? The answer, of course, was Ranger Suarez. He was the guy we targeted from day one. Never in a million years would I have imagined that we'd have to pay $9 million or more for him, but the situation is what it is. You can't fight reality.
In the final seconds before 10:00pm, I placed a $10.5 million bid on Suarez, fulling expecting Highland (or Chicago, for that matter) to top it. Instead, the 10:00 hour came and went with Salem winning the bid at a salary of $9 million.
I still have a whopping 270 innings to fill, but having Suarez at the very top of our rotation eases the pressure quite a lot. Inning-for-inning, he was the best pitcher in this draft class, and we got him. Now, the question is: what to do with him?
We have two options. We could either go after old-timers Rich Hill (whose auction we're currently winning) and Adam Wainwright to fill those 270 innings, and then use Suarez as a major multi-innings weapon out of the bullpen. Or we could punt the issue entirely, fill in the innings through trade later in the season, and go all-in on offense.
It all depends on Hill. If we win that bid, then we have to decide which direction we will go at first base: Yuli Gurriel or Brandon Belt. Obviously, Belt would be the first choice, but we may not have enough funding to afford him. We definitely do not have enough funding to afford Belt, Hill, AND Ketel Marte -- whose bid is already at $8 million, despite the fact that he isn't even showing up on the main page yet.
January 10:
We have nine teams ahead of us in the auction tiebreaker, and all nine teams appear to be hell-bent on bidding $5 million on each and every player in this auction, forcing us to go Type H if we want any of them. I have mixed feelings about losing last night's bid on Rich Hill. On the one hand, we could have really used his 175 innings of usage. On the other hand...it's Rich Hill. That bid was won by Johnny Bo, who appears to be hell-bent on filling his roster with warm bodies yet again. Lather, rinse, repeat in Vegas for the 24th year in a row.
So, now we either fill that missing spot in our rotation with Steven Matz -- the guy we targeted at the very beginning of this process -- or we leave it unfilled and go after others. If we opt for the latter, then we'll need to get very creative. Matz is a mediocre pitcher this year, and is a high-risk keeper at more than $5 million over the next two years. If you told me I could sign him for $5 million -- or even $6M -- I might do it. The way this auction is going, he will likely fetch $9 million.
Dylan Floro is the reliever we need to have, based on his numbers against right-handers. He is the missing piece we desperately need. If we don't get him, we're screwed. But I'm not bidding more than $5 million on him. What are the odds that none of the nine teams ahead of us bids $5 million? Practically zilch. Floro is in the very last lot, which means we will be forced to plug that hole in the draft if it comes to that.
The most pressing issue, and the source of a tremendous amount of angst and stress since the beginning of this auction is the first base question. Do we go with Gurriel or Belt? Jeff Paulson, one of the Nine, has already forced a Type H bid on the 37-year-old Gurriel. There is no question that Gurriel would be the better fit for us for the regular season. He has full-time usage. He is good against both lefties and righties. He has a Vg range rating at first base, which we desperately need in our infield, along with a low error rating. He is the perfect fit for us. For the regular season.
For a short playoff series, Belt is without question the better option. If he were a full-time player, he would win the MVP and Babe Ruth awards this year. He posted an OPS above 1.000 against right-handers in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball. According to my calculations, his slugging percentage would be more than 130 points higher in our park.
Akron has already taken Belt Type H as well. He's sitting at $5.5 million, which tells me I'm not the only one targeting him in this auction. Akron has $14 million to spend, and no holes in their roster to fill, so they can pretty much add anyone they want. Still, their bid for Belt is odd. Josh Bell, with 800+ splits against both sides, is their first baseman. He can also play the outfield, but he is rated Pr at both corners. Is D.J. Shepard seriously planning to degrade his defense to upgrade his offense? Akron does need at least one outfielder, given the usage restrictions of Ronald Acuna. Maybe so.
If D.J. is targeting Belt, then perhaps we should just bite the bullet and bid on Gurriel. That would solve one pressing issue, and would give us a little more wriggle room in our budget. I really hate to give up on the dream of owning Belt, but we have had to sacrifice in several ways this winter. What's one more sacrifice?
January 11:
Dear Diary: Every single member of this league can just go ahead and suck an entire bag of dicks.
Maybe that's a little harsh, but I'm still reeling over what happened last night. Yuli Gurriel was sitting at $5 million for days. At some point late yesterday, the bidding went Type H. I mistakenly assumed that meant that teams were hesitant to go Type H on a 37-year-old first baseman -- and rightfully so! I have spent weeks agonizing over that decision myself.
I patiently waited until the final few seconds before 10:00, and submitted a bid of $7.5 million -- $1 million more than I had wanted to spend, but I figured it was better to be safe than sorry.
It still wasn't enough.
Evidently, I have wasted a great deal of time over the past several weeks crunching numbers, creating a budget, developing a strategy, scouring through scouting reports and age-curve analyses, and painstakingly creating multiple scenarios in which to spend the rest of my remaining cash. All this time, I wasted, when I could have just done what the rest of the league has evidently decided to do: throw as much money as possible at every single player in the auction, without any care in the world, and without any consideration whatsoever to the future.
Hey, maybe this is a blessing in disguise. Maybe we'll end up with a "bargain" price for Brandon Belt -- who was our #1 offensive target all along. Maybe we'll get him at such a discount that we'll have enough left over to sign Steven Matz and a decent reliever.
Maybe monkeys will begin flying out of my rectum at any given moment. You never know. Seems just as likely.
January 12:
This is it. The entire auction -- the entire season, perhaps -- comes down to this. I need three players in today's auction lot, and I have already placed my maximum bid on all three. Now I wait for the inevitable last-seconds sniping at 9:59:59 tonight. I have been told that my concept of having a budget and sticking with it is antiquated, and does not work in the real-time auction era. I'm okay with that.
As I type, I have the winning bids on Brandon Belt ($5.5M), Steven Matz ($5.5M), and Joe Kelly ($5M). I know these bids will not stand. My max bids for the three, in order, are $9.5M, $7M, and $5M. I cannot afford a penny more. If I win all three bids at the max, I will not have any money left to fill the holes at catcher and our middle infield.
That said, if I leave this auction with Ranger Suarez, Mark Canha, and Brandon Belt, I will consider this to be a great success. Those three, along with Matz, were players I identified as "must-haves" way back in November.
We are now at the mercy of the BDBL. D.J. Shepard has already reached out to me to confirm that he will not be raising the bid on Belt. I don't know if anyone else is in the market for a first baseman. The fact that Joey Votto went for just $5 million last night tells me no. In retrospect, perhaps I should have bid $5M on Votto myself, just to keep him away from our competition (or to force them into a Type H deal.) Oh, well. What's past is past.
January 13:
I am still recovering from the shock, so forgive me if I sound a little disconnected from reality. Did that just happen? Did we really just win THREE players on the final day of the auction? Two of them at salaries far below what we bid for them? Seriously?
After twelve days of angst and frustration and aggravation, we ended up with the players we targeted at the very beginning, before this all began: Ranger Suarez, Brandon Belt, and Steven Matz. We also got a full-time 1B/OF and a quality closer...and we still have money to spend!
This could not have worked out better.
