Chapter Five Review

Another chapter, another crushing disappointment.

We finished Chapter Five the same way we finished the preceding three chapters, combined: with a .500 record. The epitome of mediocrity. We are now 52-52 since the end of Chapter One, despite adding Jose Altuve, Mike Clevinger, Kurt Suzuki, Kolten Wong, Sean Doolittle, and Brandon Workman during that period. Over that same period, we rank seventh in the Ozzie League in runs per game with a paltry 4.8 (barely above the league average of 4.6). We hit .240/.310/.421 over that timeframe, compared to a league-average rate of .247/.315/.419.

By nearly every measure, we own a league-average offense despite having five players on our roster that posted an 800+ OPS on the disk. All five of those players are underperforming, with an OPS that ranges anywhere from 29 (Christian Walker) to 105 (Rafael Devers) points below their disk OPS. We also have two other batters with a disk OPS of .790+. One of them (Ramon Laureano) is actually outperforming his disk OPS by 26 points. The other, David Freese, is currently sporting an OPS (as a Cowtipper) of .605 -- a whopping 186 points below his disk OPS.

After slumping for several chapters, Devers has finally picked up the pace of late, and yet he is still batting just .198/.260/.397 against lefties (compared to .288/.337/.506 on the disk.) Yadiel Hernandez -- sporting an OPS of 801 on the disk against right-handers -- is currently hitting .231/.310/.394 against righties. Kurt Suzuki and Kolten Wong, added in order to boost our offense, are hitting .244/.312/.402 and .230/.335/.323 for us, respectively.

On the pitching side, we posted an incredible team ERA of 2.44 in the first chapter. Our team ERA since then? 3.98. That is only the third-best ERA in the Ozzie League during that period. Same pitchers, with the exceptions of some quality additions, and yet they're over a run and a half WORSE. Go figure.

Sonny Gray became the first Cowtipper in history to toss a no-hitter earlier this year. He is sporting a 5.10 ERA over the past four chapters. Jon Gray was an all-star this year. His ERA since the end of Chapter One: 4.43. Mike Clevinger was the ace of the Akron staff before we acquired him. With Salem, he's just 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA over 62+ innings. Max Scherzer, Chapter One's Pitcher of the Chapter, is just 9-7 with a 3.60 ERA since then.

Stephen Strasburg, Scherzer, Clevinger, Sonny Gray, and Jon Gray, on paper, may be the greatest starting rotation ever assembled in the BDBL. Combined, they are just 37-34 with a 4.13 ERA over the past four chapters.

Lastly, there is the defense. We rank dead-last in the entire BDBL in fielding percentage (.979), and own a comfortable lead in errors. In fact, as of this writing, we're the only team in the BDBL with over 100 errors -- with 28 games left to play this season. Shohei Ohtani is a tremendous liability in the field no matter where we play him. He posted a .951 fielding percentage at first base (14 errors in 48 games started.) We then moved him to right field this past chapter, where he has already committed more errors (5) in 24 starts than any other outfielder on our roster has committed all season. In addition to the errors, Ohtani has atrocious range, takes bad routes to balls, and costs us several hits and runs just by being so godawful with the glove. Yet, because he owns the second-highest OPS on our team against right-handers, it's difficult not to include him in the lineup.

And then there is Alex Colome. In 55 innings, poor Alex has yet to record a put-out. He has only one assist. Yet, somehow, some way, in five total chances in the field, he has committed FOUR errors. Seriously. You can look it up.

Overall, the Cowtippers own the best runs differential in the McGowan Division -- and second-highest in the Ozzie League -- and yet we trail the Joplin Miners by two games. Our Pythagorean Difference of minus-6 is currently the worst in the Ozzie League, thanks in large part to our 19-24 record in one-run games. We lead the entire BDBL in blown leads after seven innings, with thirteen. No other team has more than ten. Yet, oddly enough, our bullpen ranks among the top five teams in the BDBL in lowest inherited runners scoring percentage, and in the middle of the pack in blown saves and blown save percentage. We simply have run into bad luck. Again and again and again and again.

As always, we discovered some incredibly aggravating new ways to lose baseball games in Chapter Five:

• In our first of three losses against the Joplin Miners, Dan Vogelbach -- who had just been picked up off of the free agent garbage dump -- hit a home run off of Stephen Strasburg to take the lead. That ended up being the winning run of the game, as Joplin won by a score of 3-2.
• In the third game of that series, we took a 4-2 lead in the first inning, and cruised into the seventh inning, up 5-2. The wheels then fell off the bus when #7 and #8 hitters Danny Santana and pinch hitter Justin Smoak hit an RBI triple and double, respectively. Taylor Guilbeau and Jon Gray then loaded the bases in the eighth inning, and wife-beater Marcell Ozuna followed with a grand slam home run, putting the game away.
• Facing the lowly Darien Blue Wave, someone named Houser somehow managed to hold our offense to just one run over seven innings. The Darien bullpen then tossed two near-perfect innings of relief to close out the 3-1 win.
• One of our many one-run losses came at the hands of the lowly Iron Spider Pigs, who managed to SHUT OUT our offense with the combined effort of Merrill Kelly and some guys named Irvin, Fairbanks, Brogdon, and Suarez. We racked up eight hits and five walks, and failed to score a single run. We left a whopping ELEVEN runners on base.
• Against Bear Country, we carried a slim 7-6 lead into the eighth inning...and proceeded to serve up SIX runs. Clevinger, pitching in emergency relief, somehow managed to allow four runs to score on five hits and a walk...all while recording just one single out.
• We lost a game against Los Altos when Sean Doolittle -- our most reliable relief pitcher and best pitcher against lefties -- allowed a walk-off seeing-eye squibbler up the middle to lefty Joc Pederson.
• We carried a 4-0 lead into the fifth inning of the fourth game of that series, only to watch our pitching staff implode yet again in the late innings. We clung to a 6-5 lead heading into the eighth...and then watched in helplessness as FIVE runs crossed the plate.

Not only aren't we hitting or pitching well overall, but we're doing incredibly poorly in clutch situations. In late innings (7-9), when the score is within two runs or fewer, only five teams in the entire BDBL own a lower OPS than our .683 in that situation. When the score is tied in those late innings, our OPS drops to .608. When we're down by one run, our OPS in late innings is...get this...509! That is the same OPS as the South Philly Gritty!

We own a .727 OPS overall. With runners in scoring position, our OPS drops to .722. With two outs and RISP, it's .715.

Now, let's do pitching. Our overall team OPS allowed is .682. In innings 7-9, that OPS rises to .690. If the score is within two runs, our OPS is .689. Within one run: .698. With the score tied, it's just .525 -- best in the BDBL! But...if we're ahead in the late innings, watch out! If we lead by one, our OPS allowed jumps to a whopping .818! That's the fifth-worst in the league! If we're ahead by two, it's .723. With runners in scoring position, we allow a .729 OPS.

I don't know what to do about any of this. It is what it is. Improving this team via trade is no longer an option. Even if it were, the trades I've made to date have not improved this team whatsoever. We have 28 games to make up a two-game deficit. If we do, I do not feel confident at all about this team's chances in the postseason. If we don't, it's the most ridiculous thing that I've ever experienced in 22 seasons of playing in the BDBL.

It's Over

The division race is over. The 2021 season is over. It is time to concentrate on 2022. I am officially done with this team. For the first time (I think?) in our 22-year history, I am stepping down as the manager. I have handed off that duty to the MP. I have zero interest in managing this group of players any longer. It is pointless, and it is a waste of my time.

Our three-game deficit in the McGowan Division ballooned to five games thanks to a series loss -- at home -- against the Joplin Miners. Dan Vogelbach, who was discarded by the Los Altos Undertakers earlier this season and plucked off the free agent garbage dump by Doyle -- despite the fact that Doyle will have to pay $1.1 million at the end of this season to cut him -- hit two crucial home runs in the series, and was easily the MVP. (Note: although I say Doyle will have to pay to cut him, we all know Doyle won't be around at that point, so he won't pay any penalty whatsoever.)

The coup de grace was when noted wife-beater Marcell Ozuna -- discarded by the Highland Freedom earlier this year -- hit a game-winning pinch-hit grand slam home run in Game Three off of Jon Gray, who just happens to be one of the best pitchers in this game at preventing right-handed hitters like Ozuna from hitting home runs.

That was the straw that finally broke this camel's back.

Oh -- I also got to experience something I never thought was possible! Jim Doyle actually found a way to be even more of an annoying asshole than he already is! Throughout all three games that I managed, Doyle repeatedly took the first pitch, just to prolong the agony. And despite putting a number of his hitters into an early 0-1 count, they managed to reach base despite his effort to the contrary.

This game, and this ridiculous 2021 season, can kiss my ass.

Chapter Five Additions

I wasn't planning to make another trade this season, but when the opportunity arose to add Jose Altuve to our lineup, I just couldn't resist pulling the trigger. We have been hemorrhaging offensive production all season long at one particular spot in our lineup. Against left-handers, that spot has been Jose Pirela's. Pirela carries an 800+ OPS against lefties on the disk, but has hit just .217/.225/.380 this season. Against right-handers, Yadiel Hernandez sports an 800+ OPS on the disk, but has hit just .239/.320/.417.

Altuve doesn't play left field, so when the offer was made, I assumed he wasn't a fit. Then I realized that Kolten Wong and Nick Senzel can both shift to the outfield, which opens up second base. With one move, we've replaced an entirely useless dead spot in our lineup with an all-star-caliber hitter.

Of course, no acquisition comes without sacrifice. I've gone back and forth on Nick Madrigal's value to our franchise over the years. At times, I regarded him as a foundational player, and grouped him in with Devers, Turner, Ohtani, and Rutschman. At other times, I thought he could best serve as trade bait. After watching him play for roughly half a season in the big leagues, I have a pretty good idea what he is and what he will become.

Initially, my plan was to trade for a high pick in the upcoming free agent draft, use that pick to select David Fletcher, and it would be as if we added Altuve for nothing. (Fletcher and Madrigal are nearly identical players.) However, the idea of keeping Altuve is growing on me. Ohtani, Turner, and Devers all rank among the top ten (seven, really) in WAR this season. Altuve gives us four players in the top fifteen. Brandon Crawford makes five out of the top twenty. That's a very nice foundation for 2022.

The only issue with keeping Altuve is his $12 million salary. That would leave us with around $8 million to fill several holes. Also, keeping him means there would be nowhere to put Crawford. These are both good problems to have. Worst-case scenario is that we trade either Altuve or Max Scherzer and plug some of those holes in the process. We have already had an inquiry about Altuve, so I'm sure that it wouldn't be difficult at all to trade him or Scherzer.

*** 

Unfortunately, we were only able to pick up two free agents this chapter, due to a lack of players that we could release. That said, we're happy to have the two that we got: Sergio Romo and Dominic Leone. We've managed to collect a pretty decent bullpen for 2022 if they all continue pitching as well as they have to date:

David Bednar: 40 IP, 28 H, 5 HR, 15 BB, 50 K, 2.70 ERA, 612/626 splits

Dominic Leone: 23 IP, 14 H, 2 HR, 10 BB, 27 K, 1.54 ERA, 450/546 splits

Sergio Romo: 38 IP, 28 H, 2 HR, 11 BB, 39 K, 3.52 ERA, 591/554 splits

Jake McGee: 42 IP, 27 H, 5 HR, 7 BB, 45 K, 2.34 ERA, 376/591 splits

Paul Sewald: 31 IP, 19 H, 2 HR, 12 BB, 54 K, 2.30 ERA, 563/491 splits

Gregory Soto: 43 IP, 32 H, 4 HR, 27 BB, 53 K, 2.95 ERA, 526/697 splits

Jeffrey Springs: 43 IP, 33 H, 9 HR, 14 BB, 61 K, 3.53 ERA, 838/758 splits

Ryan Tepera: 43 IP, 22 H, 3 HR, 12 BB, 50 K, 2.91 ERA, 387/512 splits

Matt Wisler: 40 IP, 34 H, 6 HR, 9 BB, 53 K, 4.05 ERA, 658/713 splits

The best part about those nine guys above is that they earn a combined salary of just $1.3 million. Bednar was acquired as a free agent last year, and is the only one with a salary above $100K. All of the others were picked up this year, either in the $100K rounds of the draft or via free agency. 

*** 

Okay, let's talk about the 800-pound gorilla in the room. The unwritten rule in any fantasy baseball league is that each owner makes decisions in good faith, with his franchise's best interests (both present and future) at heart, just as a real-life GM of a real-life baseball team would do. Part of that good faith practice is the idea that no GM who plans to keep his job would ever burn his franchise to the ground in order to win now at any and all costs. It would be foolish and counterproductive to do so -- unless that GM doesn't plan to keep his job.

Jim Doyle is acting very much like someone who doesn't plan to stick around after this season. If that is true, and he has no future in the BDBL, then it doesn't matter what decisions he makes that impact his franchise's future. He can -- and has -- throw caution to the wind, sell the entire farm, and throw all of his eggs into the win-now basket, because hey, what does he have to lose? That is exactly what he's done by trading the last few pieces of his franchise's future in exchange for Cody Bellinger and Corey Knebel.

I was involved in trade talks for both players this chapter, but ultimately decided that it wasn't worth the cost to our future. Doyle doesn't have to worry about that, evidently. As I wrote here many times before, it doesn't matter what the Joplin Miners do or don't do. All that matters is how the Salem Cowtippers perform on the field. When you play .500 ball over three chapters, it doesn't matter what your competitors do. You aren't going to win the division, regardless. We simply need to win. It's as simple as that.

This game has a way of rewarding bad behavior. See Paul Marazita's three straight trophies to kick off this league, or John Duel's championship season before he bailed, or Anthony Peburn's string of division titles. Those infamous villains of BDBL past may soon be joined by another.

Chapter Four Review

Welp.

At this point, four chapters into the 2021 season, it is safe to assume that the Cowtippers team that we all witnessed in Chapter One was an anomaly. That team, with its outstanding pitching, solid hitting, and passable defense, was a mirage. The real Cowtippers are the ones that we've seen in the three chapters since then. We played .643 baseball in Chapter One. We have played .500 ball since then. We are Team Mediocrity.

This pathetic team, with its starting rotation that includes four all-stars, and a lineup that includes Rafael Devers, Ramon Laureano, Trea Turner, Shohei Ohtani, and numerous other hitters with an 800+ OPS split, has been the very definition of mediocre since the end of Chapter One.

When you are four games behind in the standings, there are two things your team must do in order to gain ground in the race: 1) beat bad teams, and 2) capitalize on the opportunity when the first-place team stumbles. We did neither this chapter. We went 4-5 against the last-place Ravenswood Infidels and Lake Norman Monsters, and we finished with the same shitty 13-11 record as the hapless Joplin Miners.

To put things into perspective, the North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs, who own the fourth-worst record in the BDBL, SWEPT the Monsters in Chapter Four. We barely managed a split.

We lost one game to the Monsters because Dylan Bundy -- who came into the game with an ERA over 7.00 -- held us to just three runs in six innings, while our "all-star", Sonny Gray, was whacked around for five runs on ten hits in four innings. We lost another game to Lake Norman when Framber Valdez and Mike Clevinger, pitching in emergency relief, blew a 4-0 lead.

We lost three out of four games to Ravenswood, including two games where the Infidels started a pitcher with a 7.00+ ERA. Stephen Strasburg, the starting pitcher for the OL all-star team, blew a save in that series. Rafael Devers went 0-for-12. We managed to hit just .215 against a pitching staff that owns the 8th-best ERA in the Ozzie League.

We lost a game to Los Altos when Sonny Gray allowed TWELVE runs in five innings. We scored five runs against the Undertakers' starter...and lost. Looking back, it is impossible to believe that Sonny Gray actually tossed a perfect game this year. It's been all downhill for him since then.

We lost a game to the Akron Ryche when we called on Max Scherzer, all-star, to hold a 4-2 lead in the ninth inning. The very first batter of the inning hit a weak grounder back to the mound. Scherzer snagged it, jogged over to first, and underhanded it to the first baseman...who somehow dropped it. This led to a three-run inning. Another walk-off, one-run, loss. Scherzer failed to even record an out in that inning.

The Cowtippers pitching staff posted an ERA of 2.44 in Chapter One. Our ERA this past chapter was 4.11. Folks, this is the same pitching staff! The only changes to that staff since Chapter One were the additions of Mike Clevinger, Sean Doolittle, and Brandon Workman. We added three quality pitchers and our pitching staff somehow got WORSE!

Our offense has posted a below-average OPS (.722) this season. We currently rank #18 out of 24 teams in that category. The Myrtle Beach Hitmen have a higher team OPS than Salem. So do the Darien Blue Wave. Robinson Chirinos, David Freese, Nick Madrigal, Jose Pirela, and Rafael Devers all own an OPS that is 100+ points lower than the one on the projection disk.

On the plus side (there's a plus side??), Devers' bat finally -- FINALLY! -- heated up in Chapter Four. He managed to hit .338/.424/.525 for the chapter, with three homers in 80 at-bats. Of course, most of that came from the bottom of the lineup, so he managed to drive in only 11 runs. Still, his performance was perhaps the only highlight of the chapter.

So...what now? We only have two chapters remaining to gain four games in the standings. Hell, we've overcome an eight-game deficit in only one chapter in the past. The difference is that we had a decent team back then. This is not a decent team. It should be, but clearly, it isn't.

Chapter Four Pickups

I had high hopes for all of the free agents we signed a chapter ago. Yet, of the five players we signed, we ended up releasing four of them this chapter. At least we got one useful piece of trade bait (Josh Harrison) out of that mess. This chapter, we picked up eight free agents, which may or may not be an all-time record. Here they are, in the order in which they were chosen:

1. Brandon Crawford

Crawford is not someone that we wanted or needed, but we would have been fools not to select him once all of our preferred free agents disappeared. At the ripe old age of 34, he is having a career year. He has already hit 15 home runs, which is the most he has hit since 2015, and is hitting .253/.339/.537 overall. We have nowhere to put him with Trea Turner firmly entrenched at shortstop, but perhaps we can move one of them over to second, given that our second baseman, Nick Madrigal, is now done for the year.

2. Jace Jung

Jace, brother of Josh, is arguably the top college freshman hitter in the nation. Batting in the heart of the Texas Tech lineup, Jung hit .337/.462/.697 this season, with 21 homers, and more walks (49) than strikeouts (45). He could very well be selected at the very top of the 2023 draft.

3. Thomas White

Normally, we would steer clear of any high school junior. We have made that mistake in the past, and it never ends well. Too much happens between the ages of sixteen and eighteen, and the players who are identified as being the best of their class in their junior year are often nowhere to be seen by the time they graduate. Especially pitchers. That said, you don't often read the type of glowing, gushing, praise that White has received from scouts and pundits alike. He is being hyped as the surefire number one overall pick in 2023, and this opinion seems to be universal. When someone like that comes along, it's worth the lottery ticket -- especially as the third pick in the draft.

4. Benny Montgomery

We didn't own a single player on our farm who is likely to be selected in the 2021 draft until we added Montgomery. Monty, an 18-year-old high school punk, is generally considered to have the best tools, across the board, in the draft. He hits for average and power, he has speed that some consider to be an "80" on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he has a plus arm in the outfield. The only knock on him is that he has a quirky swing that may get him into trouble at the pro level. He's a big kid who is often compared to Jayson Werth, which I suppose wouldn't be bad.

5. Ricardo Cabrera

It is very difficult to find information on the 2021 and 2022 Latin American prospects who used to be called "July 2" prospects. So much has changed over the past couple of years that scouting reports and rankings have all but disappeared. Given that, the scouting reports that I was able to find suggested that Cabrera could be one of the top Latin American players who will be signed this year. He has the most well-rounded tool set of the group, and is said to be the most advanced of that group. We'll see.

6. Paul Sewald

Sewald is a 31-year-old journeyman reliever with the Mariners. In a very small 14-inning sample, he has allowed 10 hits, no home runs, and eight walks, with 23 whiffs. He is a right-hander, but has limited lefties to a .125/.276/.167 batting line. Righties have hit .233/.303/.333 against him. Of course, one bad outing can change all of the above.

7. Phil Gosselin

Yet another old (32) journeyman who is performing well in a small sample. Gosselin is currently being used in a platoon around the infield, hitting primarily against left-handers. He has excelled in that role, hitting .433/.452/.633 in only 31 plate appearances. Like Sewald above, one bad streak could ruin Gosselin's numbers and make him entirely useless. A lot can happen in half a season.

8. Logan Tanner

Louisville catcher Henry Davis is generally considered to be a lock to be selected in the top five picks of the 2021 MLB draft. Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada is generally considered to be one of the top catchers in the 2022 draft, and was selected in the first round of our midseason draft. Tanner, a catcher with Mississippi State and a member of the 2022 draft class, is arguably better than both of them. He is a tremendous defensive catcher, and hit .284/.375/.528 in his sophomore season, with a team-leading 14 home runs, and a 33/38 BB/K ratio.

News and Notes

I know that this is most likely a delusion caused by my deep-seated love and bias for all things Cowtipper, but it sure seems that whenever we enter into trade talks with another team, the asking price for our players is ten times that of any other team in the league. I have often thought that it's better to have a shitty farm system than a good one when it comes to trade talking. If you offer your "best" prospect, who happens to be the 60th-best prospect in baseball, it gives the illusion of being a better offer than if they same player were offered by a team that also owns the 6th-, 10th-, and 25th-best prospects.

Maybe it's just me.

In any case, after a shit-ton of begging, negotiating, arm-twisting, and heavy-drinking, we somehow managed to pull off two more trades this past chapter. Both trades should have been completely unnecessary. Hell, ANY trade that we have made over the past two chapters should have been unnecessary, given the quality of our team on paper compared to the competition. Yet, here we are.

In this Bizarro World of BDBL 2021, where black is white and up is down, we actually need to make a trade for a third baseman who can hit, despite the presence of Rafael Devers on our roster. To that end, we added David Freese from the Ravenswood Infidels. Freese's projected stats are nowhere near as good as Devers', and yet Freese is currently posting an OPS that is 100 points -- ONE-HUNDRED POINTS!! -- higher than Devers.

It's a very small sample, and Freese is severely restricted in usage, but every bat helps. If Devers' bat finally begins to heat up, we can move Freese to first base, where every batter we've used in that position has struggled all season.

In exchange for Freese, who only has 180 PA's left in usage this season, we had to give up TWO players with 2022 value. Like I said above, it seems like any other team would have had to give up half of what we did, but it is what it is. Josh Harrison was our best -- and only -- decent free agent acquisition last chapter. Codi Heuer was one of the rare middle relief fliers that actually panned out. Neither one will be contributing to our team in 2022 because Rafael Fucking Devers can't hit a baseball.

We acquired yet another ace-caliber starting pitcher, Mike Clevinger, in our second trade. That gives us an insanely-good starting rotation of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Sonny Gray, Jon Gray, Mike Clevinger, and Framber Valdez. The fact that we're in second place, barely clinging to a .500 record, with that rotation is beyond stupid.

Even though Clevinger is a starter, we mostly acquired him to bolster our bullpen. The plan is to use those six pitchers as starters, but whichever two are not scheduled to start in any given series will be used out of the bullpen. In this year where quality relief pitching is completely non-existent, outside of Great Lakes' inexplicable success with no-name nobodies, it seems like this is our best/only option. There simply aren't any relief pitchers worth trading for in this market. Why not use our stellar starting rotation to its maximum benefit?

In exchange for Clevinger and two other guys, we made the very difficult decision to finally part ways with Spencer Howard. This past winter, we rejected one trade offer after another for Howard. He was ticketed to fill the void that will be left in our rotation when Strasburg and Sonny Gray become free agents at the end of this year. However, the more we watch him pitch, the less we're convinced that he will ever fill that void.

I absolutely HATE giving up someone like Howard for a three-chapter rental. We've made trades like this in the past, and they have always bitten us in the past. We get three chapters of use from the guy we acquired, we lose in the postseason, and in the end, we end up giving up years of production in exchange for nothing. But here we are again.

If not for our complete and utter lack of confidence in Howard, this trade wouldn't have happened. Increasingly, it was looking as though time were running out to get anything of value in exchange for him. Had we traded him last winter, or two years ago, we could have received much more in exchange. But we held on to him, hoping and praying for him to fulfill his ace potential. Now that we've finally traded him, he is practically guaranteed to become that ace in the very near future.

We won't worry about that future at this point. We have too much work to do in the present.

*** 

On that note, we've decided to shake up the lineup in the second half. Against left-handers, we will likely begin using Freese at third base. Against righties, we're moving Shohei Ohtani to right field, and use Freese and Aledmys Diaz at first. We're hoping that this not only boosts our offense, but improves our defense, as Ohtani's errors at first base have become a constant, nagging, issue.

With Suzuki behind the plate, and Kolten Wong at second, we should -- SHOULD -- score more runs in the second half than we did in the first. This game, however, seems to have a very stubborn mind of its own.

Chapter Three In Review

As I did last chapter, I will forgo our Chapter Review tradition of breaking this report into "good, bad, and ugly" sections, as there was very little good or bad to report in Chapter Three. At the end of Chapter Two, I asked on this page which version of the 2021 Cowtippers was the "real" version: Chapter One or Chapter Two?

Keep in mind that there is very little in common between those two versions. They are practically polar opposites -- to the point where it is difficult to understand how the same team, with the same players, using the same player cards, can perform so drastically differently from one chapter to the next. As we progress further into this ridiculous season, it appears that the Chapter Two version of the Cowtippers is the one that we should expect to see from this point forward.

On a similar note, it appears that the Rafael Devers that we saw in Chapter One, who got off to a blazing-hot start before cooling down a bit and finishing with a respectable .273/.316/.500 batting line, is a thing of the past. We must come to accept the fact that the version of Rafael Devers that plays in the BDBL is not the one we see in real life. Our version hit all of .189/.265/.356 in Chapter Three, which appears to be his "new normal."

For the season, Devers is hitting just .217/.272/.398. These numbers pale in comparison to the numbers on the projection disk: .292/.344/.530. How on earth those numbers somehow translate into this shitty performance, 80 games into the season, is truly a statistical marvel.

Prior to the start of this season, we ran six sims using the projection disk, with Devers playing in Salem's home ballpark in all 162 games each season. His median OPS for those six sims was .823 -- 52 points below his projection OPS (which is fairly in line with the league average, given that our ballpark favors pitchers.) The lowest OPS he posted in those six sims was .792. That lowest OPS is a whopping 122 points higher than his current OPS in the BDBL. How many seasons would we need to sim before we would see an OPS as low as .670? 1,000? 10,000? 1 million? We're likely witnessing a performance that is probably three standard deviations below the mean! That is as statistically-improbable as it gets, folks. We're talking lottery-winning odds.

So, now the question is: what do we do with a third baseman who is posting a .670 OPS, is basically useless overall, is a huge liability in the field, and completely useless against left-handers (.525 OPS)? We have dropped him down to #5 in the lineup against righties, and #6 against lefties, and he is still killing us. So, do we sit Rafael Fucking Devers? Who on earth would we play instead? Aledmys Diaz? Keep in mind: Devers is the guy that we thought would have a good chance to become the first Salem MVP since Sammy Sosa!

Of course, Devers is hardly alone. Christian Walker (-133), Yadiel Hernandez (-113), Kurt Suzuki (-106), Robinson Chirinos (-247), Jose Pirela (-124), and Nick Madrigal (-141) are all posting OPS's more than 100 points below their projected numbers. That's SEVEN players, folks. We could almost field an entire LINEUP of hitters that are under-performing their projections by 100+ points!

So...what do we do about this? Do we sacrifice our entire farm system to upgrade our lineup? Which first baseman could we get who hits better than Christian Walker's .804 projected OPS? Or Jose Pirela's .805 OPS against lefties? Or Yadiel Hernandez's .801 OPS against righties? If the projected numbers have zero correlation to their actual performance, then why bother upgrading?

We have a starting lineup comprised of five hitters with an .800+ OPS against lefties (with two others above .790), and five players with an .800+ OPS against righties...and we currently own a team OPS of .709, with a lefty/righty split of .684/.721.

Folks...there is ZERO correlation between the stats on the projection disk and our team's actual offensive performance. ZERO.

Moving on. Defensively, the Salem Cowtippers rank DEAD LAST in the BDBL in fielding percentage, with a league-high 70 errors. No other team has more than 54 errors as I type, so we lead the league by a VERY comfortable margin. The main culprits here are Devers and Shohei Ohtani. Devers has posted a career MLB fielding percentage of .931, but he's sitting at .907 in the BDBL, with 17 errors so far. Ohtani is forced to play out of position as a DH, so his 11 errors (.959%) at first base is at least understandable. Alex Colome has only had FOUR total chances in the field so far, and has committed THREE errors. Max Scherzer and Sonny Gray have committed four errors combined, and both carry a fielding percentage below .900. In total, nine of our team's seventy errors (13%) have been committed by our pitchers -- which has to be the league leader.

Last, but certainly not least, let's talk about the bullpen. 80 games into our 160-game season, it has become crystal clear that we cannot trust ANYONE on our roster to hold a three-, four-, or even five-run lead. Here are our runs allowed per inning, and where we rank among the BDBL:

1st inning: 45 (19)

2nd inning: 21 (1)

3rd inning: 29 (8)

4th inning: 38 (19)

5th inning: 27 (4)

6th inning: 27 (2)

7th inning: 33 (8)

8th inning: 51 (21)

9th inning: 35 (23)

With the weird exceptions of the first and fourth innings (poor performance against the top of the lineup!), we rank among the best in the league in preventing runs in the first six innings of the game. After that, we fall completely apart. We rank near dead-last in the eighth and ninth innings. It doesn't seem to matter who we use in those situations, either, as we have tried everything we can think of to avoid this -- including using our usual inning one-through-six starters out of the bullpen!

That's right. Our bullpen has been so bloody awful that we began using our four aces -- Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Sonny Gray, and Jon Gray -- in relief. These are four of the best pitchers in baseball. Surely, they can handle pitching an inning or two without allowing more than three runs....right? Wrong.

Max Scherzer (6 times), Stephen Strasburg (10), Sonny Gray (14), and Jon Gray (6) have been used out of the bullpen a whopping 36 times this year (only 8 fewer times than our relievers!), and have gone 3-9 in those games. Our two Cy Young candidates and two top-50 starters have lost NINE games in relief this season. NINE. That is roughly the same number of losses as all of the relievers on our team, combined.

Is there a parallel universe somewhere where this makes a lick of sense?

We finished Chapter Three with a 13-11 record. We barely outscored our opponents by nine runs. Over the past two chapters, we have gone 25-27 with a +13 runs differential. We've lost ten more games than the pathetic, flag-waving, waffling, Joplin "Cutting Our Losses" Miners over the past two chapters. Is there a light at the end of this dark tunnel, or is it time to reset expectations for the second half? At this point, it appears that the Salem Cowtippers you see now are what we are stuck with from this point forward.

* * * 

Let me close out this delightful chapter summary by showcasing some of the completely asinine fucking ways we lost games in Chapter Three:

• In a game against the Niagara Locks, we managed to rally to tie the score in the sixth inning, and our bullpen miraculously managed to hold the Locks at bay for four innings. Our offense couldn't make heads nor tails out of Matt Strahm (mediocre 3.92 ERA on the disk) or Carlos Estevez (4.18), who pitched four innings of one-hit shutout relief combined. Then we brought in Strasburg to start the bottom of the 11th inning and he served up a walk-off homer to the first and only batter (Xander Bogaerts) that he faced.
• We took a commanding 5-0 lead against the Carolina Saints, at home, in the first of our four-game set. We went to the bullpen early, having started the shaky Framber Valdez, and watched as they slowly allowed Carolina to creep back into the game while our offense took the rest of the day off. In the ninth, we held a slim 5-3 lead. We handed the ball to Sonny Gray...who proceeded to allow FIVE runs.
• We then lost Game Two of that series when Jon Gray somehow couldn't contain the awesome offensive firepower of Franklin Barreto (who is hitting .204/.290/.407 for Carolina this season.) His three-run blast -- made possible by yet another error by Rafael Devers -- put the game out of reach. The crushing blow in the first game, a three-run triple off of Sonny Gray, also came off the bat of Barreto.
• We lost a game to the lowly South Loop Furies when Jon Gray was tasked with holding a tied score in the bottom of the ninth. Instead, he allowed a leadoff double (where the runner advanced to third on yet another error by Ramon Laureano.) The next batter popped out to right field...where Yadiel Hernandez dropped the ball, and the winning run of the game happily scampered across the plate. Back-to-back errors led to a walk-off.
• We lost a completely idiotic game to the Allentown Ridgebacks in which not one, but TWO of our Cy Young candidate aces blew easy saves in the late innings. First, we brought Scherzer into the game in the eighth inning to protect a three-run lead. He proceeded to allow a two-run double and an RBI single to tie the game. Then, in the twelfth inning, Strasburg took the hill for his third inning of relief and allowed a three-run blast to Matt Olson with two outs. We managed to lose that game by only one run after Trea Turner hit a two-run homer with no outs in the bottom of the inning. But then someone named Grant Dayton struck out Aledmys Diaz, Kolten Wong, and Ramon Laureano in order. Whiff, whiff, whiff. Fucking Bugs Bunny.
• We ended up losing three of four to Allentown in that series after Corey Kluber carried a no-hitter into the fifth inning of Game Two, and someone named Andrew Kittredge carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning of Game Three. Rafael Devers failed to get a single hit in that entire series.

* * * 

So...where does that leave us? Frankly, I see no reason to expend any effort whatsoever on improving this team, given this team's apparent lack of effort to win regardless of who I put on the field. We have pursued a few trades, but the asking price is always much, much higher than we're willing to pay. Of course, the irony is that 2021 is the year when star players have been traded for pennies on the dollar. It's a buyer's market for everyone except us, it seems.

We will likely ride this team to the end, for better or -- likely -- worse. What a ridiculous season it has been in every conceivable way.