We just wrapped up the strangest Midseason Draft in our league's history. For the first time ever, no new information was available since the Winter Draft. Hardly any games were played, so there were no surprise or breakout performances to evaluate. Scouting wasn't allowed, so there were no new scouting reports to consider. Yet, the game must go on, and so we did. Below, I list the players we acquired during this draft. But first, we have a trade to announce.
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Although we've had a good deal of success this season, there are a couple of major issues that we needed to address at some point this season; namely, our bullpen and Andrew Benintendi. Our bullpen was primarily (almost solely) responsible for several losses last chapter. The main reason for our success in 2019, I believe, was the strength of our bullpen. It has been my goal to recreate that strength in 2020, but it hasn't been easy.
Two chapters ago, I added Mark Melancon and Rowan Wick to our bullpen. Melancon is merely an innings-eater, but Wick is the guy we identified last winter to potentially fill the role that Ryan Brasier filled for us in 2019: the righty-killer. So far, so good. Wick was very good for us in his Salem debut.
Next, my goal was to find that lefty-killer that Oliver Perez so crucially provided for us in 2019. I targeted Aaron Bummer for that role last winter, and tried everything I could to bring him to Salem. His owner, Tony DeCastro, absolutely refused to deal him no matter which names I tossed his way. Finally, with the deadline only hours away, we got our guy.
Along with Bummer, we received veteran Brett Gardner, who will immediately replace Benintendi in the starting lineup against right-handers. Benny has been absolutely useless (.187/.254/.290) against righties this season. Gardner (.256/.325/.511) should be a vast improvement.
Of course, we had to give up way too much to get these two pieces of the puzzle. Kwang-Hyun Kim has some decent stats on the projection disk, and is only $100K in salary. Garrett Mitchell and Garrett Crochet are two college prospects with very high ceilings. We were very high on Tanner Burns coming into this season, so he could become a valuable commodity as well. Hopefully, it was all worth it.
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Okay, now to our new draft picks:
#1 Sam Delaplane
It's funny, because I don't think I even listed Delaplane in my top ten list that I posted prior to the draft. Yet, as our pick approached, and the players I really wanted disappeared from the board one after another, Delaplane looked more and more attractive. He looks very much like a future shut-down closer, both in terms of his scouting reports and his numbers.
He offers a 70 slider (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and a 60 fastball. That combination has led to a minor league K/9 rate of over 15. His BB/9 rate of just over 3.0 is very reasonable. He also has some very favorable stats on the projection disk: 61+ IP, 51 H, 8 HR, 28 BB, 79 K, .715/.665 splits.
#2 Felnin Celesten
After our first pick, I decided I would switch up our entire draft strategy and focus on players with quality stats on the projection disk. Given the state of MLB at the time, it seemed like a reasonable gamble to assume that we will be using that disk for the 2021 BDBL season. With that in mind, I had Sam Selman's name written in indelible ink for our #2 pick. Then Tony Chamra swooped in and took him, five picks before ours.
Change of plans. I had 15-year-old Rodrick Arias penciled in as a possible late-draft flier. I normally wouldn't think of picking someone so young, but his scouting reports are pretty insane. Apparently, Jeff Paulson has read those same reports, as he selected Arias with his first pick, right behind us in Round One.
The only international player whose scouting reports are even better than Arias is Celesten. Just 14 years old, he has been called a "once in a generation" type of prospect, who is already graded a 50 on the 20-80 scale. With no one else on the board who provided nearly that level of excitement, I decided to roll the dice and prevent Paulson from having two of the best international prospects in the game.
#3 Hoby Milner
Returning to the projection disk, we selected Milner, who is projected to have 58+ IP and .637/.694 splits.
#4 Yadiel Hernandez
Hernandez would have never squeezed his way into the Washington Nationals outfield if the 2020 MLB season had been played, but his projected stats show plenty of playing time: 418 AB, .266/.355/.447 overall, with .736/.801 splits. If we end up playing with the projection disk, he could be our starting corner outfielder in 2021.
#5 Braylon Bishop
We decided to roll the dice on another teenage phenom. Bishop is a five-tool athlete, and one of the top prep players in the country. He is expected to be an early first-rounder in the 2021 MLB draft, but that is almost certain to change over the coming year.
#6 David Bednar
You guessed it. Another projection disk asset. Bednar's stats: 69 IP, .691/.629 splits.
#7 Taylor Guilbeau
Another yet another. Guilbeau may end up being our lefty specialist out of the bullpen next year. His projected stats: 56+ IP, .590/.698 splits.
#8 Jose Pirela
Pirela is projected to hit .274/.327/.478 against left-handers, and is rated at six different defensive positions.
#9 Christian Vaquero
Yet another very young teenage phenom from the international pool. The 2021 class is said to be among the best in years. Arias and Vaquero are currently ranked #1 and #2, but that ranking is so volatile, they could switch places by next July -- or fall out of the top ten altogether. It's all a crapshoot.
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Now that it looks as though MLB's 2020 season is a complete bust, it's all but guaranteed that we will be playing the 2021 season using the projection disk. With that in mind, here is what our team would look like next season:
C: TBA
1B: Christian Walker: 493 AB, .256/.329/.475 overall, .832/.783 splits
2B: Nick Senzel: 414 AB, .261/.326/.435 overall, .774/.752 splits
3B: Rafael Devers: 624 AB, .292/.344/.530 overall, .843/.887 splits
SS: Trea Turner: 579 AB, .282/.341/.466 overall, .815/.803 splits
LF: Andrew Benintendi: 568 AB, .269/.345/.438 overall, .737/.800 splits
CF: Ramon Laureano: 454 AB, .258/.324/.469 overall, .806/.784 splits
RF: Jose Pirela/Yadier Hernandez: .805/.801 platoon
Bench: Shohei Ohtani: 380 AB, .282/.344/.518 overall, .798/.889 splits
SP: Max Scherzer: 174 IP, 132 H, 39 BB, 236 K, 3.00 ERA
SP: Stephen Strasburg: 184+ IP, 152 H, 50 BB, 221 K, 3.22 ERA
SP: Sonny Gray: 158 IP, 132 H, 59 BB, 171 K, 3.82 ERA
SP: Jon Gray: 155+ IP, 149 H, 53 BB, 160 K, 4.28 ERA
RP: Trevor May: 52+ IP, 44 H, 24 BB, 65 K, 3.93 ERA
RP: Ryne Harper: 55+ IP, 55 H, 16 BB, 52 K, 4.20 ERA
RP: J.B. Wendelken: 71 IP, 67 H, 28 BB, 72 K, 4.18 ERA
RP: Rowan Wick: 60+ IP, 53 H, 32 BB, 66 K, 4.03 ERA
RP: Aaron Bummer: 70 IP, 64 H, 29 BB, 64 K, 3.86 ERA
RP: Hoby Milner: 58+ IP, 52 H, 18 BB, 65 K, 3.53 ERA
RP: Sam Delaplane: 61+ IP, 51 H, 28 BB, 79 K, 3.82 ERA
RP: Shohei Ohtani: 69+ IP, 61 H, 29 BB, 83 K, 3.89 ERA
It's a real shame that Strasburg's Cowtippers career will end with projected stats. He has had an outstanding career with us, but it would have been nice if he had ended on a high note by winning that elusive Cy Young award. It's also a shame to see Sonny Gray's 2019 MLB performance discounted so badly. I doubt we would have seen that much regression in his numbers.
Likewise, it would have been nice to see if Adley Rutschman and/or Nick Madrigal could have made an impact this year. Then again, it would have been nice to see some real baseball of any kind being played in 2020. It is what it is. We have no choice but to make the best of this unthinkable situation.
The Midseason draft is upon us. Of course, this year, the draft is much, much weirder than it has been in years past because exactly zero baseball has been played since the Ides of March. So, we're left with nothing but scouting reports. Still, there is some value to be had here.
Here are my top ten picks as we head into the draft. Of course, the order of this list will change a dozen times by the time we actually pick.
1. Heston Kyerstad, OF, Arkansas
2. Max Meyer, P, Minnesota
3. Zac Veen, OF, Orange, FL
4. Felnin Celesten, SS, DR
5. Rodrick Arias, SS, DR
6. Yoelqui Cespedes, OF, Cuba
7. Reid Detmers, P, Louisville
8. Bryce Jarvis, P, Duke
9. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
10. Wilman Diaz, SS, Venezuela
After splitting the first four series we played in Chapter Three, we won seven of our last eight games, giving us a record of 15-9 for the chapter. Overall, we own a .663 winning percentage, which is second only to the mighty Los Altos Undertakers.
We have a few deals in the works, and hope to make an announcement by the end of this chapter. We are also preparing for the mid-season farm draft, so that will be covered in the next post as well.
The Good
The Brothers Gray were outstanding in Chapter Three. Jon went 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 28 innings, and Sonny went 3-1 with a 1.97 ERA in 32. Our newest member, Rowan Wick, was excellent as well, sporting a 1.04 ERA in 8+ innings. The seldom-used Ken Ryan (1.50 ERA in 6 IP) was also surprisingly good.
Rafael Devers (.361/.394/.722) continues to do nothing but rake. At this point, he looks like he could possibly become the first Cowtipper to win the MVP award since John Olerud way back in 1999.
Trea Turner (.333/.400/.611) was only 2-for-4 in stealing attempts in Chapter Three, but hit four home runs and eight doubles.
Tom Murphy (.333/.360/.667) and Cameron Maybin (.333/.362/.511) have been consistently good from the beginning of the season.
The Bad
Shohei Ohtani whacked five home runs and added a pair of triples in Chapter Three, but hit just .212/.254/.545 overall.
Jose Ramirez (.205/.271/.397) has struggled most of this season. Our MVP from a year ago has been all-but-useless at the plate, and has already committed eight errors while playing out of position at second base.
Max Scherzer (3.97 ERA in 34 IP), Stephen Strasburg (3.52 in 38+), and Anibal Sanchez (3.31 in 16+) weren't bad, per se, in Chapter Three, but they weren't exactly the Cy Young-caliber pitchers they should be. Scherzer pitched a real stinker (7 ER in 5 IP) against Great Lakes last chapter. Strasburg got lit the fuck up (5+ IP, 13 H, 7 R, 5 ER) against Kansas City. Sanchez was just...meh. I expect better from these guys.
The Ugly
Christian Walker (.160/.266/.259) pretty much took the chapter off. He's our only real first baseman, so we have to plug him into the lineup every day, but man, has he been useless. At least his Ex glove takes some of the sting away.
Bryan Holaday (.130/.167/.174) had a horrendous chapter, to the point where we may just cut him loose.
I wish we could cut Andrew Benintendi (.174/.240/.290) loose as well, but he's under contract for many years to come. The face of our Jumbotron a year ago has turned out to be an automatic out at the bottom of our lineup.
New guy Mark Melancon (6.35 ERA in 5+ IP) had a rough debut as a Cowtipper. Usually-reliable Sam Dyson posted a 6.75 ERA in 8 IP in Chapter Three, and blew two saves.
But the worst of the worst in Chapter Three was Trevor May: 7 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, and 4 (count 'em, FOUR!) home runs allowed. Where the hell did that come from? May was pretty much lights-out in the first two chapters. He completely choked against Saskatoon, Las Vegas, and Kansas City last chapter. We need him to turn it around in a big way.
We got off to a rocky start, including a sweep by the Akron Ryche, but righted the ship in the end and finished the chapter with a respectable 18-10 record. That brings our record for the season to 38-18 (.679), which is tied with the Los Altos Undertakers for the best record in the league. Our runs differential of +105 leads the league by a wide margin, which means we will achieve my childhood dream of ranking #1 in Jim Doyle's Power Ranking!
We managed to pull off one trade ahead of the deadline, adding two bullpen arms in exchange for top prospect Jackson Kowar. Rowan Wick and Mark Melancon will take some of the workload off the backs of our overworked bullpen staff.
The Good
Jon Gray (3-0, 2.02 ERA) stepped it up in Chapter Two. In 35+ innings, he allowed just 28 hits (one home run) and 11 walks, with 38 strikeouts. If he could ever pitch a full season at some point in his career, he would be incredibly valuable.
Max Scherzer (3-2, 2.29 ERA) enjoyed a productive chapter as well. His numbers are even more impressive when you take into account a disastrous start against South Loop, in which he allowed 13 hits and 6 runs (5 earned) in only 5 2/3 innings.
Sonny Gray (4-2, 3.25 ERA) also had a productive chapter that included not one, but TWO, multi-inning relief appearances in extra innings. He ended up throwing seven innings in those two games, allowed just one hit, and ended up with the win in both games.
Taylor Rogers (2.00 ERA in 18 IP) was an absolute workhorse in Chapter Two. Jimmy Cordero (2.13 in 12+) also worked a little harder than I planned for him to work.
Rafael Devers "slumped" all the way to .299/.359/538 for the chapter, and yet still led the team in runs created.
Alex Avila (.435/.519/.870) broke out of his slump in a big, big, way. His catching platoonmate, Tom Murphy (.360/.418/.800), also had a big chapter. Even our backup to the backup catcher, Bryan Holaday (.300/.370/.525) had a nice chapter.
Shohei Ohtani (.348/.353/.742, 6 HR) broke out after a slow start to the 2020 season. Cameron Maybin (.403/.456/.565) and Nick Senzel (.347/.353/.551) also raked. Ramon Laureano (.283/.316/.630) led the team with 8 home runs. Even Andrew Benintendi, of all people, had a productive chapter (.275/.378/.420).
The Bad
After a blistering Chapter One, Trea Turner's performance (.238/.278/.337) hit a wall in Chapter Two.
Anibal Sanchez (2-2, 4.11 ERA) was pretty mediocre. Trevor May (3.77 ERA in 14+ IP) was a disappointment out of the bullpen.
Jose Ramirez (.264/.298/.425) and Christian Walker (.241/.310/.464) weren't exactly awe-inspiring.
The Ugly
Stephen F'ing Strasburg. Wow, did he suck, early in the chapter. He was pummeled by Bear Country (6 IP, 8 H, 5 ER), spanked by Akron (5 IP, 8 H, 6 ER), and absolutely humiliated by Allentown (5.2 IP, 12 H, 10 ER). His numbers for the chapter: 42+ IP, 51 H, 5 HR, 14 BB, 43 K. Yuck.
We have to use our bench players quite a lot, thanks to usage limits. Unfortunately, they all pretty much sucked monkey balls the entire chapter. That includes Aledmys Diaz (.184/.310/.449), Carlos Puello (.143/.308/.429), and Tim Lopes (.138/.138/.138).
In Chapter One, we went 20-8 overall, swept two series, won three others, lost only one, and came within one out of throwing our first-ever no-hitter. There is plenty of good news there to unpack, but there are also some flashing red warning signs. Our bullpen has been shaky, and our most reliable closer, J.B. Wendelken, has already spent over one-third of his season's usage. Our catching situation will need to be addressed at some point. We could also use another outfielder.
The problem is that this current trade market is completely absurd. The asking price for a part-time catcher or bullpen arm is one of our top prospects. Teams aren't even interested in discussing anyone else. We recently placed Garrett Mitchell -- a possible top-five overall pick in the coming MLB draft, with 80 speed and 70 power -- on the Selling forum. We received one offer. One. That, alone, is indicative of where this trade market is at the moment.
So, while we patiently wait for opportunity to knock, we take a look back at our first chapter.
The Good
Rafael Devers (.431/.488/.798 with 10 HR and 43.6 RC) was not only our team's MVP, but will likely be the Ozzie League's Hitter of the Chapter. He was on fire from Opening Day to the final series of the chapter.
Trea Turner (.340/.384/.505, with 11 doubles and 9 SB) was outstanding as our leadoff hitter. Tom Murphy (.409/.458/.705) got the job done against lefties, as did Nick Senzel (.333/.413/.590). Ramon Laureano (.317/.363/.695) and Cameron Maybin (.286/.397/.612) were excellent as well.
As mentioned above, Wendelken (0.73 ERA in 12+ IP, with 3 SV) was our most reliable closer. Taylor Rogers (1.88 in 14+) was excellent out of the bullpen as well.
Our starting rotation was not bad, but it was nowhere near as good as we expected. Stephen Strasburg went a perfect 4-0, with a 2.98 ERA. Anibal Sanchez (2-1, 2.70) turned in a strong performance. Jon Gray (2-2, 3.19) and Sonny Gray (3-1, 3.51) were great at times and mediocre at others. Sonny came within one out of pitching a no-hitter against the Iron Spider Pigs -- and then nearly blew the game! Our $15.5 million investment, Max Scherzer (3-2 3.58), pitched two decent games and four not-so-decent.
The Bad
Shohei Ohtani has been as disastrous in right field as we expected. What we didn't expect was that he'd be mostly disastrous at the plate as well. He hit just .236/.306/.345 with one home run in Chapter One. He needs to do better.
We removed Andrew Benintendi from our Jumbotron after last year's Jumbotron Jinx apparently infected his play. Unfortunately, he still can't hit: .234/.295/.312 for the chapter.
The Ugly
Alex Avila (.162/.295/.270) has been pretty much useless behind the plate. Not only that, but we over-used him. We need to plug that hole at some point.
Ryne Harper (3 IP, 9 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR) was...not good. Neither was Felix Pena (6+, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 2 HR). Kyle Ryan also allowed 4 runs in his 1+ inning of work. Between Ryan and Avila, it's a real mystery as to how they used up so much of our VORP cap this season.
This "Ugly" section wouldn't be complete without mentioning our ugly series loss to the lowly Darien Blue Wave. The series began with Wendelken, of all people, serving up a walk-off home run. We then lost the final two games to Drew Pomeranz and Spencer Turnbull. We managed to score one run on six hits in their fourteen innings combined. Which is just beyond stupid.
Opening Day is always so exciting because it is so filled with hope and optimism. I am very optimistic about this coming season, and I have a great deal of hope in a number of areas. Here is what I hope will happen over the course of the next ten months:
Hope #1: We win back-to-back McGowan Division titles.
We used to take division titles for granted in Salem. Not anymore. Last year was our first division title since 2008. That was also the year we last won back-to-back titles. All three teams in our division are concentrating on the future. If we don't win the division, then something went terribly wrong!
Hope #2: Back-to-back BDBL championships.
Obviously, this is somewhat of a pipe dream, given how long it took for us to win the first one -- in six attempts. But, I think every team hopes to win the BDBL championship at the beginning of every season. If not, then why bother playing at all?
Hope #3: A Cy Young award for one of our three aces.
We haven't seen a Salem pitcher win a Cy Young award since 2008. It's hard to believe Erik Bedard won a single Cy Young award, but he actually won back-to-back awards for us in 2007 and 2008. The only other Cowtipper to win that award was the first-ever Cowtipper, Greg Maddux, back in our first-ever season, 1999. It would be nice to see Max Scherzer, Sonny Gray, or (especially) Stephen Strasburg win that award in 2020.
Hope #4: Three 20-game winners.
All three of those names mentioned above are fully-capable of winning 20 games this year. We haven't had a 20-game winner in Salem since 2015 (Scherzer.) We have never had two 20-game winners on the same team. In fact, the list of 20-game winners in Salem is very short: Greg Maddux (1999), Mike Mussina (2002), Brandon Webb (2004), Curt Schilling (2005), Jeremy Bonderman (2007), Erik Bedard (2008), Felix Hernandez (2010), and Max Scherzer (2014 and 2015).
Hope #5: An MVP award for Rafael Devers.
After all the times we resisted the urge to trade him, it sure would be sweet to see Devers reward us for our patience with an MVP award. You have to go all the way back to 2002 (Sammy Sosa) to find an MVP winner from the Salem organization. John Olerud (1999) was the only other Salem MVP.
Hope #6: Adley Rutschman gets the call.
I know he will likely waste away in Double- and Triple-A this year, but it would be so nice if Rutschman got enough MLB playing time to make a difference for us next season. It's very unlikely to happen, but that's why they call it "hope."
Hope #7: Nick Madrigal makes the White Sox club out of Spring Training.
This is another longshot, but we could really use a second baseman next year, and Madrigal would be a perfect fit.
Hope #8: Max Scherzer stays healthy.
We made a huge, $15.5 million, investment in an aging pitcher coming off of an injury late last season. It was a huge risk, but big payoffs often require huge risks. Our fingers and toes are crossed that Scherzer enjoys a healthy MLB season.
Hope #9: Andrew Benintendi steps up.
We've been patiently waiting (along with Red Sox Nation) for Benny to become the all-star-caliber player he is supposed to be. A sub-.800 OPS, with home runs in the teens, and sub-par defense is not what we expected when we made him a franchise player a year ago. He really needs to step up his game in 2020.
Hope #10: Nick Senzel fixes whatever is broken.
Senzel has said that he changed his swing last year, at the advice of the Reds coaching staff, and it messed him up the entire season. Here's to hoping that he goes back to his old swing and becomes an asset for us in 2021.
Hope #11: Shohei Ohtani pitches 150 innings.
It was great fun moving Ohtani around from the starting rotation to the outfield to the bullpen last year, but it would be so much more fun if he'd just pitch enough innings that we could use him as a full-time (or mostly full-time) starter. 150 innings seems like a reasonable benchmark, although I'm sure the Angels will baby him the entire season.
Hope #12: Spencer Howard pitches 100 innings in MLB.
Our 2021 starting rotation will include (if they stay healthy and productive) Scherzer, Strasburg, and Sonny Gray. Strasburg and Sonny will be pitching their final year under contract in 2021, however. John Gray is signed through 2023. We need young blood in our starting rotation, and Howard seems as though he would fit perfectly. We were bombarded with trade offers for Howard all winter, but we held firm. Howard is our guy. It would be nice if he began contributing sooner rather than later.
Well, it's a good thing we decided not to go with Plan B to "spread out" our cash and fill several holes in our roster. That plan included signing Jake Odorizzi at a salary of $7 million and Yasmani Grandal for $8 million. Odorizzi ended up getting $8.5 million, and last night Grandal got $9.5 million! Who knows what the max bids were for those two!
This is why we do everything possible to avoid the auction every year. It's completely unpredictable. And all it takes is one delusional owner to drive a player's salary through the roof. In retrospect, although the Scherzer signing is very risky and puts us in a tight financial position this year, and for the next two years, it was probably the best move we could have made in this auction. If we had gone with Plan B, we would have ended up with Steven Matz pitching every fifth game.
Which brings me to my next bit of news.
The Scherzer signing permanently placed Matz on our reserve roster this year. We had four pitchers (Matz, Daniel Norris, Mike Montgomery, and Trevor Cahill) doing nothing except taking up valuable space on our 35-man roster. Something had to be done. To that end, we placed a Selling post on the league forum, and found a taker for Matz and Norris. We got two draft picks in return, which is a huge relief, as we still have several holes to fill.
Given how crazy this auction has unfolded, it could not have turned out better for us. I feel as though we will be in an excellent position heading into this season.
