Chapter Three Review

As I type, the Salem Cowtippers have moved into sole possession of first place in the McGowan Division. We own a slim one game lead, and the second place Joplin Miners still have four games left to play (against South Carolina), so that lead may not last long. Still, it's good to be able to type "first-place Salem Cowtippers" again.

We managed this feat despite going a rather ordinary 14-10 in Chapter Three. We blew numerous opportunities to win games last chapter, and struggled offensively -- especially against right-handed pitching. We lost or split a couple of critical series against sub-.500 teams, but our chapter was saved by two surprising series wins against Niagara (a sweep) and St. Louis (3-1).

Off the field, we managed to solve our usage problems for the stretch run. We deliberately ran Jon Gray's usage into the ground throughout the first half, and he is now done for the season. To replace him in our rotation, we acquired Sonny Gray from the brand-new management of the Granite State Lightning franchise. We also picked up a shortstop, Eric Sogard, to fill in the innings we will lose from having maxed-out Deven Marrero in the first half.

We announced a new strategy at the end of the 2015 season. We stockpiled young talent throughout the 2016 season. At the end of that season, we identified a core foundation of young talent that we vowed to never trade: Stephen Strasburg, Jon Gray, Shohei Ohtani, Trea Turner, Gary Sanchez, and Andrew Benintendi. Two years later, we have stuck with that strategy -- a rarity for our franchise.

My goal this year was to flesh out the roster through trades without dealing two more prospects that I believe may eventually join that core group: Nick Madrigal and Yusei Kikuchi. Although we were greatly tempted to trade both of them this past chapter, we managed not to give in to temptation.

With less than 15 VORP points remaining under our cap, this is most likely the roster we will carry throughout the second half of the season. We like this cast of characters, but it would be nice if they would all put it together at some point this season and reach their full potential. There is plenty of time for that to happen.

The Good

The highlight of our chapter was our interleague series against the Niagara Locks. In my twenty-year BDBL career, I have never witnessed a series like that one. Our pitchers managed to hold the Locks to just one run (a sacrifice fly) in four games. We won those games by scores of 6-0, 9-0, 2-1, and 3-0. And all of that happened despite losing our MVP, Jose Ramirez, for the entirety of the series, in the first inning of the first game!

To say that Jon Gray went out on a high note would be an understatement! In his final six starts, Gray went 4-0 with a 0.86 ERA. He allowed only 28 hits and 6 walks in 41+ innings, with 43 K's. As one of our two franchise pitchers, he wrapped up the 2018 season with a career-best 2.86 ERA. We hope his next start will be in the OL Division Series.

Our bullpen really came together in Chapter Three. Tommy Hunter and Mike Grace combined for nine innings of relief without allowing an earned run. (Even Ichiro Suzuki, believe it or not, tossed 1.2 innings of shutout relief.) Raisel Iglesias (1.42 ERA in 12+ IP) and newbie Brad Brach (1.59 in 11+) also gave stellar performances.

Jose Ramirez (.371/.385/.697 for the chapter) continued his stellar season in Chapter Three. He whacked 14 doubles in just 21 games. Matt Joyce (.328/.438/.803) FINALLY turned his season around last chapter, and led the team with eight home runs. Gary Sanchez (.299/.349/.481) and Jayson Werth (.278/.458/.667) also enjoyed productive chapters at the plate.

The Bad

Listing Eugenio Suarez in the "Bad" section is actually an upgrade. He managed to hit .250/.301/.456 in Chapter Three, which is 71 points below his MLB OPS -- and yet that was a stellar performance compared to prior chapters. He actually hit four home runs in the chapter, which doubled his total from the prior two chapters. At least he's trending in the right direction now.

Andrew Benintendi remains in a mysterious slump. He hit .259/.338/.379 for the chapter, which actually raised his season's numbers to .232/.312/.333. The lack of power is especially mysterious, given that Fenway's LH HR factor is 19 points lower than Salem's. He's on pace to hit 10 home runs this year -- half of his MLB total.

Yoenis Cespedes (.244/.256/.366) is yet another mysterious under-performer. His slugging percentage against righties is a whopping 217 points below his MLB number. Again, the RH HR factor in Salem is six points higher than it is in Citi Field. What gives??

Jose Quintana was practically brilliant throughout the first two chapters, but went just 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in five Chapter Three starts. Ol' Reliable Mike Leake (1-3, 5.88 ERA) was less-than-reliable last chapter as well. 

The Ugly

I really wish someone could explain why Mitch Moreland is SO awful. His BDBL numbers (.155/.212/.283 vs. RH) aren't in the same universe as his MLB numbers (.246/.324/.460). Overall, he is hitting 78 points below his MLB batting average, and 237 points below his MLB OPS. He has hit roughly as well as Jon Gray (.231/.231/.231) and Jose Quintana (.200/.200/.200). Most depressing of all, he has been very consistent throughout the season. He hit .210/.253/.358 in Chapter One, and .139/.213/.278 in Chapter Two. We have moved him to the #9 spot in the lineup, and yet it still isn't low enough.

Likewise, what the hell is up with Pedro Strop? Why does this game hate him so much? He was perfectly fine in Chapter One (3.15 ERA, 2 saves, in 20 IP), but then completely fell apart in Chapter Two (8.25 ERA in 12 IP), and continued his shittiness in Chapter Three (6.30 ERA in 10 IP). This is a guy who posted a nice and tidy 2.83 ERA in a tough pitchers park. C'mon, man!

Chapter Two Review

We wrapped up Chapter Two with a respectable, yet underwhelming, 16-12 record. Thanks to the even more underwhelming 15-13 chapter by the Joplin Miners (matching Granite State's record for the chapter), we managed to cut our deficit in the division to two games. One-run games continue to be our Achilles Heel. For the second chapter in a row, we finished with a losing record (3-5) in those tight games. For the season, we are now 6-12 in one-run games.

One of those tight games was lost when our bullpen blew a 3-0 lead in the eighth inning against the despicable Los Altos Undertakers. Our newest "closer", Tommy Hunter, who was supposed to help us with this one-run loss problem, only added to our misery by serving up a two-out, grand-slam, home run to Wilmer Flores.

We lost another one-run game against Kansas City when Robinson Cano hit a walk-off home run off Mike Leake in extra innings. That heroic event was only made possible because our bullpen blew a 5-2 lead in the eighth inning.

Our third one-run loss came against the Granite State Lightning, of all teams. We scored six runs against a team that is among the lowest-scoring teams in the BDBL, and yet it wasn't enough. We lost 7-6 thanks to another sub-par effort from our bullpen.

As we head into the third chapter, we face several usage issues that will need to be addressed sooner rather than later. We made several inquiries on the trading market this past chapter, and will continue to have those discussions as we head into the all-star break. We managed to add yet another bullpen arm this past chapter, and hope that Brad Brach can continue to pitch as well for us as he had been for the Western Kansas Buffaloes.

The question, as always, is: how much do we want to sacrifice for this season? With the Flagstaff Outlaws on pace to win 117 games, the playoffs promise to be an uphill battle (again.) Although winning the division would be sweet, sacrificing the future of this franchise for yet another postseason failure isn't a very tempting prospect. After years and years of trading our most talented young players away for no reward in the end, we intend to stick to our strategy of building around our foundation of young players. Trading one of those core players for an outside chance of upsetting the Outlaws in the playoffs is a fool's game. We've been foolish long enough.

The Good

Although we only hit .240/.310/.398 as a team in Chapter Two, we saw some stellar performances from Gary Sanchez (.338/.410/.622), Jose Ramirez (.319/.396/.574), Rafael Devers (.269/.345/.462), and, oddly enough, Deven Marrero (.333/.417/.905).

On the pitching side, Matt Grace has been an unexpected asset out of our bullpen. In ten innings, he didn't allow a single run, with only eight batters reaching base against him. We got another unexpected boost from Aaron Loup, who also didn't allow a run in his five-plus innings of work.

Mike Montgomery continues to shine as both a starter and reliever. He posted a 2.41 ERA in Chapter Two, and led the team with 41 innings. Unfortunately, we will need to cut back on those innings going forward.

Jose Quintana (4-1, 2.45 ERA in 40+ IP) was our best starting pitcher, and Mike Leake (4-2, 2.67 in 33+) continues to be a solid inning-eater. Even Stephen Strasburg (2-1, 2.91) and Jon Gray (1-2, 3.12) were useful in Chapter Two. And Stras only allowed one home run! If only we had any hitting whatsoever, we could have easily won twenty or more games.

The Bad

Trea Turner (.253/.298/.304) cooled down considerably from his hot start to the season. So did Travis d'Arnaud (.206/.308/.294.) And so did Odubel Herrera (.204/.268/.350). All three batters went from red-hot to ice cold.

Then there is Matt Joyce (.200/.273/.383), who has been ice cold all season. His OPS against right-handers is 142 points below his MLB OPS. He hit 24 homers against righties in MLB. He's currently on pace to hit 17 in the BDBL.

The Ugly

Man, what the fuck is up with Eugenio Suarez? Seriously. Enough already with this guy. He hit .194/.299/.388 for the chapter, and is now hitting .209/.305/.359 for the season. He's hitting ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTY-FOUR POINTS below his MLB OPS. I'm now batting him seventh in the lineup, and yet I still can't hide his bat. He has been absolutely useless. I get it. He posted his MLB numbers in Cincinnati, which is a big-time hitter's park. But 164 F'ing points?? C'mon, man!

Then there is Andrew Benintendi, our leadoff hitter. Here is what Benny did hitting out of the leadoff spot for us all chapter, setting the table: .163/.277/.186. He's batting 155 points below his MLB OPS for the season. Is there something in Salem's water supply that is causing all of these good hitters to become completely useless? Maybe it's the Curse of the Salem Jumbotron. Next year, I'll put Doyle's picture out there in center field and see what happens.

Let's talk about Mitch Moreland. We got him for his glove and his bat against right-handers. So far,  the glove has been great. The bat? Not so much. Here's what he has hit against right-handers this season: .174/.223/.326. Here are his MLB numbers: .246/.324/.460. I mean...seriously. This isn't even the same guy! It's like DMB switched his player card with Tyler Saladino's!

On the pitching side, I present to you our ugliest performance of the chapter. Pedro Strop: 12 IP, 14 H, 11 R, 11 ER, 10 BB, 13 K. He sported an 8.25 ERA for the chapter and was responsible for two of our losses. His ERA is now nearly two and a quarter runs higher than his MLB ERA. His OPS allowed against lefties is -- get this -- 269 POINTS above his MLB OPS. Keep in mind that his main purpose for existing is getting left-handed batters out. Instead, he's allowed over 40% of them to reach base!

Chapter One Review

The word "disappointing" has been used so many times in Salem franchise history, it has become synonymous with the name "Cowtippers." Here's another word that is used far too often to describe the team from Salem: under-performing. Chapter One of the 2018 season was nothing more than the continuation of a 20-year trend of disappointment and under-performance.

Going into the season, we knew our bullpen would be a problem. We underestimated just how much of a problem it would be. We managed to post a shit-tastic record of 3-7 in one-run games last chapter, thanks in no small part to our bullpen. Let's take a look at all the wins our bullpen cost us this season (so far):

April 2: We handed a tied game over to Raisel Iglesias (allegedly one of our two best relievers) in the fifth inning in a game against Joplin. He proceeded to allow FOUR hits in a single inning, allowing two runs to score, and putting the game out of reach. Matt Grace and Pedro Strop poured salt on the wound by allowing three more runs.

April 17: We held a tenuous 3-1 lead over the Jamboree heading into the bottom of the eighth inning. Stephen Strasburg had pitched a phenomenal game, and we needed our bullpen to step up and do its job. Instead, Iglesias (again) allowed FOUR hits in a single inning of work. He and Mike Montgomery (allegedly our other decent reliever) coughed up three runs in their 1.1 innings combined.

April 20: We carried a 1-1 tie into the final game of that series against Bear Country, needing a win to give us a split of the series, which would allow us a share of first place for another day. Instead, Jonathan Holder (a right-hander who only faces righties) allowed back-to-back singles to the first two batters he faced (both right-handers.) Montgomery was then called upon to put out the fire. Instead, he shit the bed, giving up a base hit to lefty Jon Jay, and then a two-run single to Luis Aguilar. That was four singles in a row.

April 22: Jose Quintana pitched a gem, but we had to pull him after six innings with the score tied at 1-1. We handed the ball to Montgomery, who proceeded to allow a base hit to Mike Zunino and an RBI double to Starlin Castro. Game over. Another one-run loss.

April 26: Game One against the daunting Flagstaff Outlaws. We somehow managed to hold that ridiculous offense to only one run over the first eight innings, but their pitcher (Zack Greinke) was just as tough. We carried a 1-1 tie into the ninth, and entrusted Iglesias to hold them at bay for one more turn at bat, to give us a fighting chance to win. Instead, he coughed up a home run to Kris Davis. Game over. Another one-run loss.

April 28: Final game of the series against Flagstaff, and once again, we managed to carry a tied score into the ninth. This time, the game went into extra innings. In the 11th inning, Aaron Judge finally did to his old team what we expected him to do throughout the series, clubbing a two-run bomb to put Flagstaff ahead. Want to guess who was pitching? Yes, that's right: Iglesias. We ended up scoring a run in the bottom half of that inning, for not other reason than to give us one more one-run loss.

Those six game epitomize the 2018 season so far. All six of those games were easily winnable, and yet we managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory each and every time. Had we won just one of those games, we would have finished the chapter above .500. Had we won all six, we'd be looking at a VERY comfortable lead in our division. Instead, we're looking up at the Joplin Miners.

The Good

Mike Leake (2-2, 3.70 ERA in 7 games) has been everything we thought and hoped he would be. He has been a steady and reliable inning-eater, who has kept us in almost every game he has pitched. Jose Quintana (1-1, 3.25) has also been a steady contributor. Despite all of his failures listed above, Mike Montgomery (3-1, 2.52 ERA in 25 IP) was arguably our best pitcher in Chapter One.

Our catching duo of Gary Sanchez (.256/.306/.578 with a team-leading 8 HR and 18 RBI's) and Travis d'Arnaud (.409/.519/.773) has been absolutely insane at the plate. Miguel Cabrera (.348/.500/.435), Odubel Herrera (.315/.364/.435), Trea Turner (.307/.360/.533), and Andrew Benintendi (.280/.330/.441) have also been very good.

The Bad

Yoenes Cespedes was supposed to be a highly-productive part-time player for us this year. Instead, he has hit .239/.311/.418, with 22 strikeouts in only 67 at-bats. Matt Joyce (.242/.329/.468) was supposed to be a beast against right-handers, but has been largely useless this season. Jose Ramirez (.277/.344/.411) was supposed to be an MVP-candidate, but cooled down substantially after a hot start to the season.

Jon Gray may be the only player in BDBL history who is completely unaffected by park factors. He actually pitches WORSE in a pitcher's park than he does in Coors Field. So far this season, he has given up an inexplicable number of hits and home runs, and already has four losses on the season. We've been using him every fourth turn in the rotation despite his half-season of usage, hoping that it would help us get off to a hot start. Boy, did that backfire!

Stephen Strasburg continues his career-long pattern of allowing an inexplicable number of home runs. He has already allowed seven in just 42+ innings, after having allowed only 11 in 175+ innings in MLB. His BDBL home run rate is DOUBLED compared to his MLB rate -- and he pitches in a much friendlier BDBL home ballpark!

The Ugly

Jonathan Holder managed to post a 3.89 ERA in an extremely tough home ballpark of Yankee Stadium in 2017. He is an extreme-splits right-handed specialist, which is why he has only faced four left-handed batters in the BDBL so far. He held right-handers to a .260/.295/.415 batting line in MLB, but that line in the BDBL has been .391/.500/.609. It doesn't make sense on any level, and yet that's our reality. Because of his atrocious performance, we've had to rely on Montgomery, Iglesias, and Strop more than we would have liked. Two of the three are now drastically overused as a result.

Deven Marrero is not a good hitter. We know that. But he did somehow manage to post a .291/.344/.600 line in 55 at-bats against lefties. His batting line against lefties in the BDBL? .056/.105/.111. The dude is 1-for-18. He's managed ONE hit in eighteen at-bats against lefties. You'd think that he'd have two hits simply by random luck!

We made a last-minute trade for Mitch Moreland, both for his bat and his glove. So far, he's only brought his glove to the game. His bat has produced a .210/.253/.358 batting line, with 22 strikeouts and only five walks in 81 at-bats.

When we traded Elvis Andrus for Eugenio Suarez, we thought that their bats would be a wash. We knew Suarez's power numbers would suffer in Salem, but we hoped that he'd still be capable of hitting a few doubles -- or even a few singles. Instead, he's hit all of .221/.309/.337, with ONE stinkin' home run and a team-leading 27 K's. This is a guy who hit 26 homers in MLB. Adjusting for park factors, you'd expect maybe 22 homers in Salem. Instead he's on pace for SIX. (Yeah, I know, small sample.)

Winter, 2018

Ken "The Shark" Kaminski once coined the phrase "compete while rebuilding." That phrase could accurately describe what we are attempting to do this season. Coming off yet another disappointing postseason, the 2018 Cowtippers neither appeared good enough to compete nor bad enough to rebuild. So, we're doing both.

What Went Right This Winter

We acquired several players this winter with that goal of "competing while rebuilding" in mind. Our two auction acquisitions, Jose Quintana and Yoenis Cespedes, will not only contribute to our efforts to compete this year, but should be even greater assets in 2019 and 2020. We acquired several players in trade, such as Ichiro Suzuki, Matt Joyce, and Mike Leake, who are free agents at the end of this season. They will help us to compete this year, and then we shed $10 million in salary to spend on next year's free agent class.

In the draft, we mixed and matched players who can temporarily help us this year (Pedro Strop, Jayson Werth, Deven Marrero) with players who may help us next year (Andrew Toles, Tanner Scott, Dillon Maples.)

For the most part, we're happy with the players we were able to acquire this winter, and we believe they will help us compete in 2018 and beyond.

What Went Wrong This Winter

We severely misread the market for relief pitching. When we traded our closer, Blake Parker, very early in the winter, our assumption was that we could easily replace him in trade. Our most valuable trade bait, Elvis Andrus, proved to be unusually difficult to trade. With his Ex glove, power bat, even platoon splits, and reasonable salary, we wrongly assumed that he would have a great deal of trade value. Our franchise player, Trea Turner, is already manning the shortstop position, so we felt that Andrus was expendable, and that he would fetch a pair of quality relievers at minimum. We were wrong. Boy, were we wrong.

With our first pick in the farm draft, we selected a flamethrowing left-handed pitcher who is considered to be the second-best pitcher in Japan, and who is all-but-guaranteed to come to the US at the end of the 2018 season (or 2019 in the worst-case scenario.) Again, we completely misjudged the trade value of such a prospect. We made several offers for several relievers and were rejected at every turn.

We went into the draft with one nuclear option remaining: we could have spent $5 million on one player in the third round of the draft, and then filled in the rest of our roster with ten $100,000 picks. We had so many holes left to fill, that wasn't an appetizing option at all. However, we felt that if Brandon McCarthy or Tyler Chatwood fell to us then we could move Mike Montgomery to the bullpen and he would become our closer. Naturally, McCarthy and Chatwood were the first two picks of the draft.

So, Where Does That Leave Us?

Our bullpen is a mess. Raisel Iglesias, Jonathan Holder, and Phil Maton can't get lefties out if their lives depended on it. We need Montgomery's innings in the rotation. Strop is a right-handed lefty specialist. Matt Grace can't get right-handers out. In this day and age where bullpens have become so important, we don't have much of one.

Our starting rotation is actually not bad, but we don't have enough innings to survive an entire season unless we max-out Luis Perdomo (which would not be good.) I'll match Stephen Strasburg, Jose Quintana, Jon Gray, and Mike Montgomery against any four starters that any other team can throw against us. The problem is that Gray is limited to half a season and Montgomery is going to have to be a swing man.

Offensively, we don't have any problems at all. Jose Ramirez and Gary Sanchez are elite, all-star-caliber, players. Suarez and Odubel Herrera should be solid. Andrew Benintendi, Joyce, Ichiro, Mitch Moreland, and Turner are good platoon bats. Cespedes and Rafael Devers will be great when they play (which won't be often.) I expect this team to score somewhere near the 846 runs we scored a year ago.

This doesn't look like a division-winning team, but there are plenty of examples of teams in recent history that won their divisions despite not looking like a division-winner on paper. With Jim Doyle now leading the old Blazers franchise, and with Granite State and Western Kansas looking as though they're in the process of rebuilding, we could have a shot. Stranger things have happened.

The plan is to "go for it" early in the season, and then reassess our standing after a couple of chapters. If we're in the race, then maybe we'll trade away some of our future to win that division title. If we're out of the hunt, then we'll kick it into full-on rebuilding mode. "Compete while rebuilding." Sharky was a genius.

2017 OLDS: The Gory Details

To say that we were the underdogs in our OL Division Series matchup against the Los Altos Undertakers would be a laughable understatement. The Undertakers won 18 more games during the regular season, scored 77 more runs, and allowed 122 fewer runs. Prior to Game One, if you had told me that we would out-score Los Altos in the Division Series by six runs, I would have had a good laugh at your expense, and yet that is exactly what we did. And we still lost the series.

We have a bad habit of setting the wrong kinds of records in the BDBL, including the longest losing streak in BDBL World Series history. In 2017, we set yet another unwanted postseason record. We are now the only team to have ever lost four one-run games in a postseason series. Here is how it all happened.

Game One

Los Altos clubbed 277 home runs during the regular season, in large part thanks to their home ballpark, which carries a home run factor of 137 for right-handed batters. With their lineup filled with right-handed power hitters, we determined that if we were to have any shot of beating this team in Los Altos, we had to somehow keep their righties in the ballpark. To that end, we decided to hand the ball to Jon Gray for Game One.

Of all of our starting pitchers, Jon yielded the lowest slugging percentage against right-handed batters than any other starter except Steven Matz. With Matz being left-handed, we felt that it would be better to keep the Undertakers' short-usage righties (Wilmer Flores and Sandy Leon) on the bench in that ballpark.

As the saying goes, the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. Gray didn't make it out of the third inning before his day was through. In two-plus innings, he allowed seven hits and five runs. Two of those hits and runs came on leadoff solo homers: one by right-hander Nolan Arenado (who seems to be immune from the Coors Effect), and one by a left-hander, Ryan Schimpf.

To our great surprise and delight, we had actually managed to take a 3-0 lead in the first inning. We began the game with FOUR consecutive doubles off of Los Altos ace Chris Sale. We then tacked on two more runs in the third. For a brief moment, we thought that if Gray could keep those bats in check, we might have a shot at stealing a victory in this series. Instead, by the time that disastrous third inning ended, we were looking at a 5-5 tied game.

Just when it seemed that our bullpen would hold that tie long enough for our offense to come through for us, we handed the ball to Rubby de la Rosa to face the top of the lineup in the sixth inning. Rubby had been rock-solid throughout the regular season. Right-handed batters slugged only .229 against Rubby this season -- the lowest rate of any pitcher on our staff. In 188 at-bats against righties, he surrendered only three home runs. Yet, the second batter he faced, Arenado, went deep for the second time in the game. Four batters later, another right-hander, Sean Rodriguez, also went yard. In two innings, de la Rosa managed to allow nearly as many home runs to right-handed batters as he allowed all season.

To their credit, our offense refused to go down without a fight. We rallied for two runs in the seventh inning thanks to a walk and three singles. Miguel Cabrera, our $13 million all-star, then stepped to the plate with two outs and the tying run on third and...popped out to left. Yet another disappointment provided by our incredibly disappointing first baseman.

Another scoring opportunity went to waste in the eighth when Gary Sanchez popped up to the catcher with no outs and a runner at first, and Jose Altuve followed with a ground-out against a pitcher (Ryan Buchter) he should have matched up well against.

Kenley Jansen then came into the game to protect a one-run lead in the ninth and did what he would do throughout the entire series: three-up, three-down.

Game Two

Maintaining our strategy of keeping Los Altos' right-handed bats off the bench as much as possible, we gave the ball to another right-hander, Junior Guerra, in Game Two. Although he was a huge disappointment throughout the season, Guerra was masterful. In six innings, he allowed only one run on three hits and no walks.

With the game tied at 1-1 in the seventh, Guerra was scheduled to lead off the inning. Although he was pitching very well, I could not start the inning with a guaranteed out, so I called on Kyle Seager to pinch hit. That decision proved to be a productive one, as Seager reached on a base hit, advanced to second on a passed ball, and scored on a double by Andrew Benintendi.

As always, our celebration was short-lived. And once again, our celebration ended thanks to yet another Los Altos home run. With two outs, Undertakers manager Jeff Paulson called on pinch hitter David Freese to face lefty Daniel Norris. With two left-handers coming up behind Freese, I opted to let Norris pitch to him. I figured the only bad outcome would be a home run, and of course that's exactly what happened.

With the game now tied at 2-2, Alex Dickerson came through with a clutch leadoff triple. The next two batters grounded out to a drawn-in infield. For a moment it looked as though that triple would be yet another wasted opportunity. Instead, Trea Turner came through big-time with a huge two-run blast off of Adam Ottavino.

We now needed to somehow protect a two-run lead against the mighty Los Altos offense. I gave the ball first to ol' reliable, David Phelps -- perhaps our best reliever throughout the regular season. He didn't disappoint, retiring the side in order in the eighth. I let him stay in the game in the ninth to face a pair of power-hitting righties, Arenado and Nelson Cruz. Arenado led off the inning with a single, and Cruz struck out. I then brought in lefty Sammy Solis to face Anthony Rizzo and Justin Turner, and he retired both with ease, securing our first win of the series.

Game Three

With the series heading to our home ballpark in Salem, we could now give the ball to, arguably, our best starting pitcher, Matz. Matz's overall numbers in 2017 were dragged down by a handful of really bad starts. When he was on, no one on our pitching staff was better. Unfortunately for us, Matz chose Game Three of the OL Division Series to be off.

Out of our entire starting rotation, Matz owned the lowest opponent's slugging percentage at just .363. Against right-handed batters, it was just .386. He allowed 15 home runs in 145 innings -- less than one per nine. Then he faced the Undertakers in the OLDS and this happened:

Cruz: two-run homer in the first inning
Rizzo: leadoff blast in the second inning
Cruz: another solo homer in the third inning
Choo: solo homer in the fourth
Choo: two-run homer in the sixth

Three of those home runs were hit by left-handed batters...in a ballpark that suppresses left-handed home runs by six percent.

We trailed by a score of 5-1 heading into the fifth inning. We then played longball ourselves. A two-run blast by Jose Ramirez and a pinch hit solo shot by Jayson Werth made it a one-run game. The following inning, Jose Altuve stepped up and added a three-run homer. Three batters later, even Miguel Cabrera got into the act with an RBI single. By the time the smoke cleared, we were looking at an 8-7 lead with only three innings left to play.

Once again, we handed the ball to Rubby de la Rosa. Once again, he put us in a hole. A walk, a double, and an RBI groundout handed the lead back to Los Altos. With runners at second and third, it was tempting to bring the infield in to try to cut off that tying run. But with no outs and the heart of the Los Altos lineup due to hit, it would have opened the door to a big inning. Instead, we let the tying run score so that we could record an out.

I then brought Solis in to face the lefty Cory Seager. He grounded out for out number two. For a moment, it felt like we could escape from this jam with the tied game intact. Then Arenado stepped up and -- yet again -- came through in the clutch. His RBI single gave Los Altos the lead.

We wasted yet another opportunity in the seventh inning. After Odubel Herrera began the inning with a hit-by-pitch, Elvis Andrus (a Vg bunter) tried to bunt him over into scoring position. Instead, the play went to second, and they cut down Herrera. Determined to get that runner over no matter what, I then called for Andrus to steal second. Thankfully, he was successful. We now had a runner in scoring position with one out.

Cameron Maybin followed with a ground-out, and Jose Altuve thought this was such a great idea, he grounded out as well. Opportunity missed. It would be the last opportunity we would get, as Los Altos then turned the ball over to their two most suffocating closers, Dellin Betances and Kenley Jansen. Yet another one-run loss was recorded in the books.

Game Four

I had originally planned to start Mike Montgomery in Game Four, but thanks to Gray's unexpectedly short outing in Game One, he was available instead. Thinking that perhaps if the series went to seven games, and knowing that Guerra would have to be limited to three innings because of our ridiculous usage rules, I figured maybe Gray could pitch at least a couple of innings if needed, on the outside chance there would be a Game Seven.

Gray's outing in Game Four was what I had expected from him in Game One: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 8 K. We then handed the game over to our bullpen, which was equally masterful: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K. The only two runs scored by Los Altos were -- you guessed it -- home runs. A pair of relatively harmless solo shots by -- you guessed it -- Nolan Arenado -- would be the only scoring of the day for the mighty Undertakers.

Unfortunately, those two runs would be enough to win this one.

What turned out to be the game-winning solo home run by Arenado was hit off of Raisel Iglesias. Iglesias' stats against right-handers this season: .180/.257/.251, with 3 HR in 183 AB.

Meanwhile, our entire offensive game came down to one painfully missed opportunity. With the bases loaded in the first inning, Miguel Cabrera stepped to the plate with two outs to face Sale. He whiffed.

Our only run came in the eighth inning when we strung together a single, a double, and a sac fly. But once again, we missed a golden opportunity to score the tying run of the game when Gary Sanchez popped out for out number two, and Herrera left the tying run stranded in scoring position with his inning-ending pop fly.

That set the stage for Jansen, who recorded yet another three-up, three-down inning.

Game Five

With our backs against the wall, a single win away from elimination, we turned to Mike Montgomery to allow us to fight another day. He did just that, holding Los Altos to just three runs (two earned) in six-plus innings.

Our offense, meanwhile, managed to chip away at Los Altos starter Aaron Sanchez with singles, walks, and sac flies. By the end of five innings, we had built a 5-2 lead. Los Altos tacked on another run in the sixth inning to make it a 5-3 game. In the eighth, we pecked and chipped and scratched and clawed for two more runs, making it a 7-3 game.

We handed the game over to our bullpen with two outs in the seventh. In the ninth, Daniel Norris surrendered a leadoff triple to a lefty, Cory Seager. We let him score on a ground ball to short, exchanging that run for a crucial out instead. David Phelps then managed to get the dangerous Nelson Cruz to tap one back to the mound. Instead of recording the easy out number two, however, Phelps decided to throw the ball down the right field line, allowing Cruz to advance to second.

Lefty Sammy Solis was called on to face a pair of lefties. After striking out Ryan Schimpf for that crucial second out, Stephen Vogt somehow cranked a double to score yet another run. Solis held lefties to a .232 average this season, and Vogt his just .227 against southpaws. Go figure.

With our lead slipping through our fingers, and the ever-dangerous Arenado stepping to the dish, I asked Nate Jones to do the impossible and record that third and final out. Instead, he hit Arenado with a pitch. Then, for good measure, he uncorked a wild pitch to put two runners -- including the tying run of the game -- in scoring position.

With Anthony Rizzo at the plate, and the tying run standing one bloop single away, I decided not to roll that particular pair of dice. I intentionally walked Rizzo to load the bases. With a heavy sigh of relief, Sean Rodriguez then grounded out to end the game.

Game Six

If Junior Guerra had thrown just 3.1 more innings in MLB 2016, his postseason usage in this series wouldn't have been an issue. Instead, he was limited to 9 2/3 innings thanks to our arbitrary rules. Of course, I was fully aware of that when I allowed him to throw six innings in Game Two, and thus fully-prepared to turn Game Six into a "bullpenning" experiment if it came to that.

We jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first inning thanks to another clutch home run by Jose Ramirez. Guerra was as good as we have seen all season, tossing three shutout innings to start the game. But with only two outs remaining in his usage, and with his spot in the batting lineup coming in the top of the fourth with two outs, I reluctantly decided to cut Guerra's usage even further and pinch hit Cameron Maybin. Naturally, he struck out.

Forced to turn the game over to our bullpen, I began with Daniel Norris -- who was also limited in usage himself. In keeping with the theme of this entire series, he coughed up a home run to the very first batter he faced, Sean Rodriguez. Thankfully, however, he settled down from there and retired ten of the next eleven batters he faced.

Meanwhile, our offense exploded in the top of the fifth inning. A walk, an error, three straight singles, and a three-run double by Alex Dickerson plated five runs, giving us a commanding 6-1 lead. After Norris struck out the side in order (giving him five strikeouts in a row) in the sixth, we turned the game over to Ryan O'Rourke, Sammy Solis, David Phelps, and Nate Jones, who got the job done. We walked away with an easy 7-1 win, putting us one win away from the OL Championship Series. All that stood in our way was Steven Matz.

Game Seven

We never thought it would come to this, but if you had told me prior to the start of the series that we'd be heading to Game Seven with a fully-rested Steven Matz as our starting pitcher, I would have felt pretty good about that situation. After his shellacking in Game Three, however, it hardly inspired confidence to see him take the hill -- especially on the road in Los Altos' righty-friendly home run haven.

It didn't take long for this game the fate of this game to reveal itself. The ever-dangerous Arenado stepped to the plate in the bottom of the first with two outs and runners on the corners. To my great relief, he hit a routine ground ball to first. Then, I watched with horror as the ball trickled through the legs of our $13 million first baseman, Cabrera, allowing a crucial -- and ultimately game-deciding -- run to score.

Incredibly, we managed to take the lead the following inning when Trea Turner -- using up one of his final at-bats of the series -- went yard off of Chris Sale to give us a 2-1 lead. But, in keeping with the theme of this series, lefty Anthony Rizzo then greeted lefty Matz in the bottom half of that inning with a game-tying home run. Heaven forbid we enjoy our lead for more than a moment.

Matz wasn't done serving up gopher-balls. After coughing up FIVE of them in Game Three, and another to Rizzo in Game Six, he allowed another (to Sandy Leon) in the third inning, and then yet ANOTHER (to Nelson Cruz) in the fifth. In total, Matz somehow managed to allow EIGHT home runs in twelve innings in the OLDS. That might be forgivable if he wree throwing batting practice, but he was actually TRYING to get batters out. In retrospect, Stephen "Whiplash" Strasburg couldn't have performed worse than Matz.

The Undertakers scored five runs in Game Seven. Three were scored by the longball. One was scored on Cabrera's clutch imitation of Bill Buckner. The other scored in the sixth inning when Matz crumbled under pressure by allowing a single and a walk to load the bases with two outs. Cory Seager then pinch hit for Sale. Cory Seager can't hit left-handers if his life depended on it. Cory Seager blooped a dying quail over the outstretched gloves of our infield to plate what became the deciding run of the OLCS.

Meanwhile, our offense busied itself by doing what they do best: wasting opportunities.

As if Cabrera hadn't proven his uselessness enough in this game, he grounded into an inning-ending, rally-killing double play to end the fourth inning. In the sixth, we managed to load the bases with no outs and the heart of our lineup coming to bat. Elvis Andrus grounded into a double play (scoring a run), and Trea Turner followed by using his final at-bat of the series to strike out.

We managed to push across a run in the eighth inning on a double and a (very) clutch RBI single by Dickerson -- off of Kenley Jansen, no less! But Jansen then recorded four easy outs in a row to end the game, the series, and our season.

Final Thoughts

If Miguel Cabrera were capable of fielding a ground ball hit straight toward him, taking a few steps to his left, and stepping on first base...

If Cabrera had come through with a base hit with two outs and a runner on third in Game One OR Game Four...

If Steven Matz had allowed "ONLY" seven home runs in his twelve innings instead of eight...

If only ONE of the SIXTEEN home runs the Undertakers hit had been held up by the wind, or died at the warning track, or were snatched over the fence with a leaping grab...

If Jon Gray's Game One performance were anything remotely like his Game Four effort...

If Trea Turner had just one more hit left in him...

If Cory Seager and Anthony Rizzo posted the same numbers against left-handed pitching that they posted during the regular season...

If any of the above had happened, I would be writing about our strategy for the upcoming OLCS against New Milford. They say baseball is a game of inches, and that anything can happen in the Tournament of Randomness. Nineteen years and fourteen playoff appearances into this league's history, we're still waiting for the year when the Salem Cowtippers will be the recipients of some of these lucky, random, breaks. Maybe next year.

2017: The Season in Review

We began this season with great expectations and a dream of bringing an end to the New Milford Blazers ridiculous streak of division titles. If you had told us at the beginning of the season that we would finish with 99 wins, I would have assumed that would be good enough to win that division title. Instead, we finished 21 games behind. Needless to say, we didn't envision the utter dominance of the Blazers' 120-win season.

We managed to keep it a tight race for at least the first half of the season. We even enjoyed a (very) brief time as leaders of the division. But then something happened to the Blazers in the second half. They kicked it into a higher gear and won 62 games in the second half -- seventeen more than we did. So much for the pennant race.

Among Ozzie League teams, only the Blazers and Infidels scored more runs than we did (846) this season. Our 3.89 team ERA ranked fourth in the OL.

We now look forward to taking on the 113+ game-winning Los Altos Undertakers in the OLDS. Our pitchers will have their work cut out for them, as Los Altos led the entire BDBL in runs scored (903) and home runs (272) this season. Every batter in their lineup is a weapon. They have four aces in the rotation and bullpen filled with an endless array of closers. Should be fun.

The Good:

Avisail Garcia ranks 23rd in offensive WAR in MLB 2017. We had him signed for a cool $2.5 million in 2018. Instead, we shipped him off to Kansas City in exchange for Martin Prado. Only days later, Prado injured himself for the season, leaving us with no option but to pay $2.3 million just to get rid of him at the end of the season. On the plus side, Prado has done nothing but hit the snot out of the ball (.449/.513/.643 in 98 AB) since becoming a Cowtipper. If he single-handedly wins the trophy for us this year, it will all be worth it. If not, what an incredible waste of resources.

Rookie sensations Andrew Benintendi (.337/.388/.467 in 92 AB) and Gary Sanchez (.288/.373/.679) helped to justify our trade of Kris Bryant a year ago. Another rookie, Trea Turner, hit .334/.358/.563 on the season, with 11 triples, 37 extra-base hits, and 63 RBI's in only 323 AB's. Those core three youngsters will be joined by Rafael Devers in 2018, giving us a solid foundation for our franchise's future.

Jose Ramirez (.315/.369/.457, with 66 doubles), Jose Altuve (.308/.354/.456), Elvis Andrus (.308/.354/.456), and Miguel Cabrera (.293/.376/.519) gave us consistent solid performances all year long. Jayson Werth (.297/.391/.658) added another power bat against southpaws. Alex Dickerson (.275/.347/.508) also provided some pop in limited (244 AB) time.

On the pitching side, Ruddy de la Rosa (2.19 ERA in 53+ IP) and David Phelps (2.43 in 85+) provided us with two solid middle-inning arms throughout the year. Matt Shoemaker (15-7, 3.56 ERA in 172 IP) was probably our staff ace -- and he won't be on our 25-man playoffs roster! Steven Matz (15-5, 3.60 in 145 IP) and Jon Gray (10-9, 3.75 in 182+) were solid in the middle of the rotation.

The Bad:

Needless to say, when we traded Aaron Judge for Junior Guerra last winter, we were hoping Guerra would not only provide us with an above-average starter this year, but for years to come. Instead, Guerra posted a mediocre 4.06 ERA and 8-7 record in 130+ innings and was so ineffective in MLB that he will be cut in the winter.

Odubel Herrera hit half as many doubles and home runs for us as he did for the Phillies a year ago, and only one-third as many triples. Granted, we expected his performance to suffer a bit given the differences in ballpark factors between Philadelphia and Salem. Still, we were hoping the drop-off would be a little less drastic.

The Ugly:

Miguel Cabrera hit just .203/.333/.331 against left-handers this year. This is compared to his MLB line of .302/.409/.517. Those numbers aren't even close. I can't even begin to explain that discrepancy.

Kyle Seager hit .307/.394/.538 against right-handers in MLB 2016. For us, he hit .237/.324/.425. He barely hit half as many home runs for us as he did in MLB 2016: 17 vs. 30. His usefulness to us is so razor-thin that he's on the bubble for our 25-man playoffs roster. His greatest asset is his Ex range in the field.

Another player on that bubble, incredibly enough, is the man who was supposed to be our "ace." Our "franchise pitcher", Stephen Strasburg. In what has to be the most bizarre and inexplicable underperformance in recent memory, Stras posted a 5.09 ERA on the season (vs. the 3.60 ERA he posted in MLB 2016.) He allowed nearly a base hit per inning (vs. 7.3 hits per nine in MLB), and coughed up 28 longballs (vs. 15 in MLB.) Nothing about his record makes a lick of sense. He surrendered 17 home runs to left-handers (vs. 9 in MLB), and nearly doubled the number of homers to right-handers (11 vs. 6.) Maybe his player card is faulty. Maybe Diamond Mind just sucks. I have no idea how to explain it.

The third player vying for that 25th roster spot was supposed to be our "closer," Nate Jones. We had pursued Jones in the winter, as he seemed like a terrific, and yet unheralded, candidate for the position. He posted stellar numbers in a very tough MLB ballpark. We figured he would thrive in our pitcher-friendly park. We were wrong. In only 37+ innings, he allowed six home runs. He managed to blow five saves in only sixteen opportunities. Most inexplicably of all, his walk rate nearly doubled (3.6 vs. 1.9) what it was in MLB. Maybe it's time to fire our pitching coach.

Chapter Five Review

The Good:

We won four of the seven series we played in Chapter Five, including sweeps of Myrtle Beach and Western Kansas. We finished with a respectable 17-11 record. Our .621 winning percentage is the fourth highest in the BDBL. We are on pace to win 99 games this season. If we can go 18-12 in the final chapter, we will reach 100 wins for the eighth time in franchise history.

It's been a hot-and-cold season for Miguel Cabrera. He was hot in Chapter Five, hitting .330/.389/.504, with a team-leading 21.2 runs created. Alex Dickerson (.405/.465/.730) and Gary Sanchez (.345/.429/.517) also brought the heat in Chapter Five.

On the hill, Jon Gray (3-2, 2.27 ERA in five starts) finally showed the type of performance we expected from him this season. Daniel Norris (1-1, 2.35) also pitched well in three spot starts. Matt Shoemaker (3-1, 2.60) continues to provide solid efforts every time he takes the mound. And let's not forget to mention the stellar pitching performance of Jayson Werth, who posted a 2.84 ERA in six-plus innings as a mop-up man.

The Bad:

Stephen Strasburg (3-2, 3.94 ERA in five starts) continues to be an enigma. He has allowed home runs in fifteen of his twenty-three starts this season, and a total of twenty-two on the season. He allowed just fifteen all of last MLB season. This is nothing new in his BDBL career.

Jose Altuve hit a respectable .284/.344/.371 for the chapter, but it was yet another mediocre performance for him that was well below his MLB numbers. When we traded a top-five prospect for him, we expected an all-star performance in return. Instead, his numbers are barely league-average.

The Ugly:

We had our asses handed to us by the Blazers last chapter -- at home, no less. We lost all four games, and two of them were complete blow-outs. Stephen Matz allowed fourteen runs in four innings in one of those games. (That game featured a relief appearance by Jayson Werth, who allowed just two runs in his five innings of work.) Junior Guerra allowed five runs in his five innings in the final game of the series. Nate Jones and Sammy Solis -- arguably our best two relievers -- then followed his performance by allowing five earned runs combined while recording just one out.

Our chapter ended by losing three out of four games to the Granite State Lightning, who own the worst record in the BDBL. We were shut out twice, and our offense managed just three runs combined in three of the four games. (We scored eight in our one and only win.)

Matz's performance last chapter was an embarrassment. He posted a 7.50 ERA in four starts, hiking his season's ERA from 2.76 all the way to 3.69. Guerra (5.55 ERA in Chapter Five) continued to disappoint. Raisel Iglesias' line (4 IP, 10 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 4 BB, 5 K) speaks for itself.

Offensively, Kyle Seager remains a head-scratching disappointment. He hit just .200/.327/.367 last chapter, and is hitting only .240/.324/.421 on the season. He has hit only half as many home runs (15) as he did in MLB, and his numbers against right-handers (.239/.324/.422) dwarf his MLB performance (.307/.394/.538). It's as if he's a completely different hitter.

2018: A Look Ahead

Our 2018 offense is beginning to round into form nicely. Jose Ramirez (.309/.363/.566) is having an MVP-caliber season. Elvis Andrus (.304/.348/.494 with a surprising 20 HR) is enjoying a career year. Gary Sanchez (.279/.348/.535 with 30 HR) is a potential all-star behind the plate. Andrew Benintendi (.276/.357/.436) and Odubel Herrera (.292/.337/.472) look like useful contributors at this point.

The pitching side is much worse. Not one of the nine starting pitchers we had heading into this season is projected to log more than 180 innings. Strasburg currently leads all Salem starters with just 156 innings. Matt Shoemaker and Stephen Matz have already been shut down for the season, and neither pitched well enough to deserve a roster spot next year. Jon Gray has pitched well of late, but has just 93 innings under his belt.

Junior Guerra (65 IP, 5.15 ERA) pitched so poorly he was demoted to the bush leagues, and will likely be cut from our roster this winter, giving us nothing to show for our Aaron Judge trade. Clay Buchholz and Ruby de la Rosa were also shut down early in the year, and both will likely be released. Drew Hutchison never made it back to the big leagues this year, and will also be released. He occupied a much-needed roster space all year for us, which made it impossible to pick up free agents.

Daniel Norris (89 IP, 5.36 ERA) has been abysmal this season after so much pre-season hype. Mike Montgomery (116 IP, 3.64 ERA) could provide some spot starts, and Hyun-Jin Ryu (118 IP, 3.59 ERA) has been serviceable.

All told, we have roughly 483 innings of serviceable starting pitching innings for 2018. We only need to find 477 more, and we might have a decent rotation. This puts us in the worst possible position heading into this winter. We are neither good enough to compete or bad enough to tank. We could trade Andrus and Ramirez for future considerations and punt the 2018 season altogether. Or we could fill in the gaps with fillers and hope the Baseball Gods are kinder to us next year. With Shohei Otani reportedly on the way, it's looking more and more like 2019 will be our next competitive season.