Chapter Four Review

Hey, remember when the Cowtippers briefly captured first place in the McGowan Division for the first time in forever? Good times.

Could Chapter Four have possibly gone worse than it did for the boys in spotted caps? I'm hard-pressed to think of a way that it could. Not only did we suffer our first losing chapter (11-13) of the season, but the despicable Blazers of the South played miles above their heads and finished the chapter with a BDBL-best record of 21-3.

Needless to say, the division race is now over, as we are now 14 games behind with two chapters remaining. All that is left for us now is to play out the string, try our best to avoid those nagging overusage penalties, and prepare for an OLDS showdown with either the Blazers or Undertakers. Both teams are on pace to win more than 120 games this season, so it hardly matters which team we face. We will be the heavy underdog either way.

The Good

Our offense continues to excel beyond our expectations. We hit .291/.355/.437 as a team in Chapter Four, and crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of .319/.407/.514. We scored 108 runs on the chapter, which averages 4.5 runs per game. That should be enough run support for any team to sport a winning record.

Our recent acquisition, Martin Prado, has been an absolute beast for us since we acquired him two chapters ago. He hit .455/.500/.818 in 22 at-bats last chapter, and will be a tremendous weapon in our lineup against Kershaw, Sale, Quintana, and Moore in the OLDS.

Trea Turner (.429/.451/.633) continued to mash the ball last chapter, as did all-star Jose Ramirez (.356/.407/.505). Cameron Maybin (.382/.404/.455), Carlos Ruiz (.321/.441/.357), Elvis Andrus (.303/.391/.434), and Gary Sanchez (.281/.395/.656) also had a stellar chapter at the plate.

On the mound, there really isn't much to include in the "good" column. Stephen Matz posted a 1.84 ERA in four starts, but went just 2-2. Jon Gray owned a 1.82 ERA in his four starts, which is an encouraging turnaround to his disappointing season. David Phelps owned a 1.23 ERA in 7+ innings of work, including one spot start.

The Bad

Where to begin? As a whole, our pitching staff posted a 4.43 ERA for the chapter. We allowed more hits (220) than innings (215+). We allowed a whopping 29 home runs (1.3 per nine), and allowed a 722 OPS.

The offensive performances of Jose Altuve (.264/.313/.349), Odubel Herrera (.259/.348/.483), and Miguel Cabrera (.253/.355/.374) were far below their normal level.

The Ugly

It is very difficult to understand why our pitching has been so horrendous this season. In particular, Stephen Strasburg continues to be a stunning disappointment year after year. He went just 1-3 with a 5.76 ERA in Chapter Four, and now owns a record of just 4-5 on the season. Four wins. From our ACE. The most perplexing and aggravating part of his performance continues to be his propensity to serve up longballs by the bushel. He allowed 15 home runs in all of the MLB 2016 season, and yet has served up 18 in the BDBL already -- in more than 40 fewer innings. He is on pace to allow 30 home runs in this BDBL season. THIRTY. In case you didn't notice, that's TWICE as many home runs allowed in our simulated season -- while pitching in a ballpark that is less conducive to home runs than his MLB park!

As if it weren't agonizing enough to deal with the pain of watching Aaron Judge launch one 500-foot bomb after another throughout this MLB season, we've also had to watch the man we acquired in that Judge trade, Junior Guerra, turn in one horrendous outing after another -- both in MLB and the BDBL. It could have soothed our aching heart somewhat if Guerra dominated for us as we expected, and/or if he gave us some value going forward. Instead, he has been absolutely useless for us this year (5.95 ERA in 19+ IP last chapter), and will likely be released on Cutdown Day.

Mike Montgomery posted a 2.52 ERA in 100 IP last year in MLB. For us, he's sporting a 5.09 ERA in 63+ innings. He's allowed 30% more hits than he allowed in MLB, 21% more walks, and his OPS against right-handers is 57 points higher. He looks like two completely different pitchers when you place his MLB and BDBL numbers side-by-side. There is literally no resemblance.

Sammy Solis posted a 7.27 ERA last chapter, and Liam Hendricks' ERA was a whopping 8.59. 'Nuff said.

Our newest acquisition, Nate Jones, was supposed to fill the role of "closer." Instead, he posted a 5.40 ERA, lost two games, blew three saves, and allowed seven walks in thirteen innings. Note that this is the guy whose MLB walk rate was less than 2.0 in MLB! Just to add insult to injury, Jones is now out for the remainder of the 2017 MLB season and will be released on Cutdown Day.

We lost our first series of the season in Chapter Four -- a four-game sweep by our likely OLDS opponents, the Undertakers. We managed to score just eleven runs in that series, and were outscored 21-11. A sign of things to come.

We also somehow managed to split a series against the Myrtle Beach Hitmen, who sport the second-worst record in the Ozzie League.

A Look Ahead to 2018

We finally have a top-30 hitter for 2018 thanks to the tremendous month of June posted by Jose Ramirez. He is hitting .316/.372/.558 on the season. Unfortunately, that is the only bit of good news we have for 2018. In other news...

• Trea Turner has missed several weeks with a broken wrist. Even when healthy, he was hitting a disappointing .279/.324/.422 at the time of his injury.
• Our $13 million first baseman, Miguel Cabrera, is having arguably the worst year of his 15-year major league career. He is hitting a robust .257/.343/.417 on the season, with a whopping 12 homers, and a WAR of -- get this -- 0.1. Zero point one.
• Gary Sanchez missed a huge chunk of the season due to injury, and is hitting a relatively-mediocre .266/.342/.479 in just under 300 PA's.
• Elvis Andrus has hit a surprising 13 home runs this season, but has sacrificed his plate discipline (.326 OBP) for power.
• Andrew Benintendi (.266/.347/.412) is having a decent year for a rookie, but we expected a little more than what he has shown so far.
• Odubel Herrera (.271/.315/.436) has been pretty much useless. Heading into the season, we were optimistic that the gains he made at age 24 last year would be carried over to his age-25 year. Not so much.
• Of course, we also had great optimism that this would be the breakout season for another 25-year-old, Jorge Soler. Again, not so much. He's hitting just .154/.245/.275, which may rank as the worst offensive season in 2017.
• We had hoped we wouldn't need to eat Martin Prado's $4.5 million salary next year. But instead, he decided to injure himself and miss the rest of the season after racking up 147 PA's. Nicely done, Martin.
• On the pitching side, we hoped that Clay Buchholz would find new life in the National League. Nope. Injured and out for the season.
• We hoped that this would be the year that Stephen Strasburg finally translated his electric stuff into a Cy Young-worthy season. Nope. He's now injured, too.
• Would Steven Matz build on his breakout season at age 26, and finally stay healthy for more than a month? Nope. Not only is he sporting a 5.51 ERA at the moment, but he's racked up less than 50 innings thanks to countless injuries.
• This was the season that Jon Gray would break out and become a top-15 ace, right? Wrong. He's sporting a 5.84 ERA in just 37 innings. Way to go, Jon. Maybe next year, eh?
• Surely, THIS would be the year where Daniel Norris becomes a legitimate ace, fulfilling the prophecies of so many scouts, experts, and prognosticators! Errr....no. He's also sporting an ERA over 5.00, has thrown just 85 innings, and is currently nursing an injury with no timetable to return.
• Drew Hutchison? Hyun-Jin Ryu? David Phelps? Mike Montgomery? Surely, one of these fliers panned out! Nope, nope, nope, and nope.
• Okay, how about Matt Shoemaker? He broke out in a big way in the second half of last season. Surely, that momentum carried over into 2017! But no. It didn't. And now he's injured, too.

Basically we had TEN starting pitchers who were all heralded as "breakout candidates" heading into the 2017 MLB season -- and ALL TEN failed miserably. It looks more and more like 2018 will be yet another rebuilding year for Salem.

Chapter Three Review

We went 17-7 in Chapter Three, outscored our opponents by 62 runs (second only to the ridiculous Undertakers), and scored a BDBL-leading 153 runs. And at the end of that wildly-successful chapter, we managed to gain ground in our division...by one whole game. Such is life in the McGowan Division during the Kershaw Era.

We won five of the six series we played this past chapter, and split the other. Our offense is really beginning to gel as the players who began the season mired in deep slumps have rebounded nicely. We hit .301/.361/.476 as a team last chapter, with strong splits against both lefties (.887 OPS) and righties (.815). Our pitching staff continues to be a disappointment, but we're hoping to see some improvement in the second half.

To that end, we went out and acquired an important piece of our bullpen puzzle just hours before the trading deadline. Nate Jones hasn't been overly impressive for the Niagara Locks this year (3.67 ERA in 34+ IP, with 734/680 splits), but we're hoping our pitching coach, Greg Maddux, can turn him around. If Jones pitches as well as he did in MLB last season, he will be our go-to guy in key situations.

THE GOOD:

-- The two newest members of our pitching staff performed well in Chapter Three. Clay Buchholz tossed six shutout innings in his only start of the chapter, and Liam Hendricks posted a 1.17 ERA in 15+ innings, filling the role he shares with Rubby de la Rosa (who had a fine chapter himself: 2-0, 2.38 ERA in 11+ IP).

-- Stephen Matz and Junior Guerra combined to go 6-1 with a 3.28 ERA in seven starts last chapter.

-- David Phelps (2-0, 1.59 ERA in 17+ IP) was the workhorse of our bullpen in Chapter Three. The acquisition of Jones should lighten his workload.

-- Our newest member (aside from Jones), Martin Prado, had an unbelievable chapter. He hit .536/.581/.786 in 28 at-bats, with a pair of homers and five RBI's. Needless to say, he can't maintain this pace, but he has already given us more production against left-handers than Jorge Soler.

-- Since we need to rest Gary Sanchez quite often, we have to rely on our backup catchers to carry most of the usage load. Both Carlos Ruiz (.424/.513/.455) and Travis d'Arnaud (.379/.400/.517) performed remarkably well last chapter in their dual backup role.

-- After a very slow start, Elvis Andrus has picked up the pace big-time over the last two chapters. He hit .364/.450/.545 last chapter, and is now hitting .321/.395/.472 on the season. He will most likely represent the Cowtippers in the all-star game, either as a starter or reserve.

-- Also a slow start, Odubel Herrera really came into his own last chapter, hitting .354/.449/.431 with 13 runs scored.

-- Jose Ramirez (.344/.402/.510 on the chapter) also continues to rake while playing three different positions on the diamond.

-- Little Trea Turner hit .308/.349/.769 with five home runs in limited time (just 39 AB's). Even Littler Jose Altuve hit .305/.345/.486 last chapter, with four homers and 21 runs scored.

THE BAD:

-- Cameron Maybin hit just .200/.234/.267 in 60 AB's, with three walks and thirteen K's. He is hitting just .260/.312/.315 on the season, with an OPS that is 174 points below his MLB OPS.

-- We were expecting great things from Jon Gray at the start of this season. We're still waiting for those great things to happen. In five starts (31 IP) last chapter, Gray went just 1-3 with a 4.94 ERA. He allowed more hits (33) than innings, and served up five home runs. On the season, in only 58% of his MLB innings, Gray has nearly matched the number of home runs he allowed all of last MLB season -- while pitching in Coors Field. Someone explain that one to me.

THE UGLY:

-- Alex Dickerson (.111/.172/.111) went 3-for-27 in Chapter Three. He is hitting just .232/.310/.449 on the season. Given his MLB ballpark factors, we were expecting much more out of him this season.

-- Jayson Werth began this season on fire, but cooled off considerably (.095/.222/.238) in Chapter Three. Essentially, against left-handed pitching, Prado took over where Werth left off, and Werth took over where Soler left off!

-- Stephen Strasburg is supposed to be the ace of this pitching staff. Instead, he went 0-2 in four starts last chapter, with a 6.75 ERA. As has been true throughout his BDBL career, his biggest problem is serving up one longball after another. In 80+ innings this season, he has allowed 12 home runs. All of last MLB season, in 147+ innings, he allowed only 15.

-- When we acquired Mike Montgomery, we envisioned a quality long reliever who could pitch multiple innings in key situations and contribute the occasional spot-start against good left-handed lineups. Instead, what we got was a below-average pitcher that struggles against both lefties and righties, and has blown four times as many saves as he tallied all last MLB season. Chapter Three's performance (6.48 ERA in 8+ IP) was his worst to date.

2018: A Look Ahead

We're nearing the all-star break in MLB, which is usually a good time to assess our team next season. Had we not traded Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano last winter, we would have two of the top fifteen hitters in baseball (by offensive WAR) right now. Had we not traded Avisail Garcia last chapter, we would have three of the top twenty. Had we not traded Josh Harrison and Starlin Castro, we would have five of the top 35. Had we kept Justin Upton, we'd have six of the top forty hitters in the game today.

But wait. It gets worse. If we hadn't traded Travis Shaw, and if we hadn't released Scott Schebler, we'd have EIGHT of the top fifty hitters in the game of baseball. If we didn't trade Neil Walker, we'd have nine of the top sixty.

Unfortunately, we did all of the above. As a result, you need to scroll all the way down to #68 before finding a single member of the 2018 Cowtippers (Jose Ramirez.) Andrus is #74, and Miguel Cabrera is #94. No other Cowtipper ranks among the top 100.

On the pitching side, Strasburg ranks as the #4 pitcher in the game based on WAR. Daniel Norris (#46) is the only other Cowtipper among the top fifty.

Like many other teams around the BDBL, Salem's 2018 season has been plagued by injuries. Stephen Matz missed the entire months of April and May, and just recently made his first appearance of the season. Jon Gray has missed most of the season, and won't return until later this month. Junior Guerra has made only four starts all season. Miguel Cabrera missed a chunk of time and hasn't been himself all year. Alex Dickerson has yet to play a single game and has no timetable to return. Martin Prado, Gary Sanchez, and Trea Turner also missed portions of the season.

At this point, the 2018 season does not look promising at all for Salem, but you never know what will happen in the second half.

Chapter Two Review

I was told that my last chapter review was a little too negative. Actually, I believe the exact critique I heard was that I whined like a little bitch. So, I will try to be a little more positive this time around.

The Cowtippers wrapped up Chapter Two with a horrendous embarrassing lousy somewhat disappointing record of 17-11. Thanks to New Milford's ridiculous well-earned 20-8 record last chapter, we now find ourselves five games out of the division lead, but with a comfortable six-game lead over the Flagstaff Outlaws in the oh-so-coveted wild card race.

THE GOOD:

We managed to split a series against the legendary Los Altos Undertakers -- on the road. We walloped them by a score of 12-3 in the first game, and then barely eked out a series tie in the final game. Since this is the "good" section, I won't mention how we lost the other two games.

Our offense performed extraordinarily well in Chapter Two. We hit .290/.350/.444 as a team, and scored 154 runs (ranking third in the OL as of this writing.) After a rough start, Elvis Andrus really came into his own in Chapter Two, hitting .343/.405/.507. Carlos Ruiz (.471/.571/.882), Jayson Werth (.438/.526/.813), Jose Ramirez (.362/.402/.491), Odubel Herrera (.333/.398/.369), Trea Turner (.316/.328/.491), and our Chapter Two MVP Miguel Cabrera (.322/.410/.552) all did a tremendous job for us.

On the pitching side, newly-acquired Liam Hendriks (1.04 ERA in 8+ IP) provided some much-needed bullpen depth. Stephen Strasburg (2-0, 1.44 ERA in 31+) had a terrific chapter. Matt Shoemaker (3-1, 3.00) and Stephen Matz (2-0, 3.32) weren't bad, either.

THE BAD:

Our pitching staff was just atrocious in Chapter Two. We posted a 4.21 team ERA, and walked 109 batters in 246 innings. As I mentioned last chapter, the walks are killing this team, and there isn't any explanation as to why it is happening.

Jon Gray (3-2, 4.68 ERA in Chapter Two) should be a MUCH better pitcher than what we've seen so far. His BDBL ERA is now higher than it was in Colorado last year. That is just plain ridiculous. He allowed 18 walks and four home runs in 32+ innings last chapter. That's just stupid.

Junior Guerra (1-1, 4.88 ERA) was equally disappointing last chapter. We traded a budding young perennial all-star to acquire what we thought would be half a season of borderline Cy Young-caliber pitching. Instead, Guerra is just 2-3 on the season, with a 4.46 ERA -- nearly two runs higher than his MLB ERA.

Although we technically traded Amed Rosario for Jose Altuve, we wouldn't have made that trade if we hadn't been able to trade Neil Walker for Mike Montgomery. Monty was supposed to be a valuable long reliever for us this year, and possibly a member of our starting rotation in 2018. Instead, he won't be starting for us next year, and he's been less than useful (4.14 ERA in 37 IP) for us this season. He was solely responsible for at least two of our losses last chapter.

When we acquired Kyle Seager in a winter deal last winter, we really thought that we had strengthened our lineup against right-handed pitching. Instead, Seager hit just .245/.336/.383 with one home run in Chapter Two, and is hitting a modest .268/.354/.475 on the season.

THE UGLY:

We went 4-4 against the Granite State Lightning and Myrtle Beach Hitmen last chapter. Those two teams currently own winning percentages of .231 and .313, respectively. Both are projected to lose 100 games this season. Yet, the best we could do against both teams was split.

We lost a game to Granite State because our offense couldn't get anything going against the bullpen committee of Matt Cain, Jeanmar Gomez, Blake Wood, and the legendary Vance Worley. We lost another when the Luis Perdomo out-pitched Jon Gray. In that game, Jay Bruce hit a three-run homer off of Gray that eventually decided the game. Had Gray not hit the pitcher, Perdomo, with a pitch two batters earlier, that wouldn't have happened. It's the little things that get you.

In the entire BDBL, only three teams have averaged fewer runs per game than Myrtle Beach. They are hitting just .238/.295/.365 as a team. And yet somehow, some way, our Salem Cowtippers pitching staff could not contain the offensive juggernaut that is the Hitmen. We managed to allow eight runs to the Hitmen in the second game of our series, and then topped that by allowing NINE runs in the third game. We very nearly lost that series if not for a come-from-behind victory in the final game. Myrtle Beach has scored eight or more runs in only six games this season -- one-third of which were against our pitching staff.

When we acquired Clay Buchholz, it was for the sole purpose of filling innings. Every calculation we performed suggested that Buchholz would pitch much better in our ballpark than his MLB numbers implied, so we rolled the dice. As a reward for our faith in him, Buchholz managed to not only injured himself in MLB, making him useless for next year, but he also went 1-2 wth a 7.13 ERA in his three starts as a Cowtipper. Thanks, Clay.

Offensively, no one in the BDBL sucked more than Travis d'Arnaud (.175/.214/.200) in Chapter Two. And Jorge Soler (.179/.273/.359) has been so useless against left-handers that we are now looking to fill that glaring hole in our lineup.

***

Well...given the number of "uglies" above, I guess I failed in my mission not to be too negative. But once this team gives me a reason for optimism, I'll take advantage of it!

Chapter One Review

Normally you would think a 20-win chapter would be a cause to celebrate, but in Salem, it's just another second-place finish. When Clayton Kershaw went down with a near-season-ending injury in June, when David Peralta finally performed like the fourth outfielder he is, when Mookie Betts forgot how to hit left-handers, when Troy Tulowitzki discovered that he isn't in Coors anymore, and when Michael Saunders performed a fantastic second half belly-flop, we figured that maybe -- maybe -- we wouldn't have to worry about the Blazers in 2017. But no. Heaven fucking forbid they ever stumble even a little bit.

Of the seven series we played in Chapter One, we split two, swept one, and took three out of four in the other four. We posted a respectable 3.17 ERA for the chapter, but our pitching staff allowed a completely baffling and irritating number of walks. We averaged 3.6 walks per nine, which would lead the league if it weren't for the Las Vegas Flamingos. Even more baffling and irritating was the performance of our offense. We hit .263/.330/.440, which is just about league average across the board. We were also thrown out on the basepaths twelve times in twenty-seven attempts -- a success rate of just 56%. In our final series of the chapter, Jose Altuve was picked off of first base -- twice -- by a pitcher with a Pr pickoff rating! There were two things at which this Cowtippers team was supposed to have excelled this season: getting on base and stealing bases. We didn't do either in Chapter One.

It seemed as though every game was a nail-biter. Out of our twenty wins, seven were by a margin of only one run, and eight were won by two runs. In fact, we only played four games the entire chapter that were decided by more than three runs.

THE GOOD

Our bullpen was outstanding in Chapter One. Notably, Rubby de la Rosa (1.47 ERA in 18+ IP), Mike Montgomery (2.45 in 18+), and Raisel Iglesias (2.25 in 24). The problem is that we overused those three arms to such an extent that we'll have to add another arm or two down the road. On the starting side, our two southpaws, Stephen Matz (3-1, 2.81 ERA in 25+ IP) and Daniel Norris (3-0, 1.02 in 17+), were phenomenal.

On the offensive side of the ball, Trea Turner (.396/.431/.604), Miguel Cabrera (.308/.392/.606), Jose Altuve (.333/.386/.496), Gary Sanchez (.273/.429/.697), and Kyle Seager (.292/.373/.573) all exceeded their lofty expectations. As with our bullpen, we'll have to make some adjustments to our usage going forward, as Turner and Sanchez are extremely limited. The same goes for Andrew Benintendi (.424/.472/.606), who has already racked up 35 of his allotted 129 plate appearances.

THE BAD

Odubel Herrera hit .303/.374/.467 against right-handers in MLB last year. So far this season, he's hitting just .195/.283/.232 against righties -- which is a problem because he's supposed to be our leadoff hitter against righties. If this is what we should expect from him for the remainder of the season it's going to be a very long season.

The same applies to Jose Ramirez. After hitting .312/.363/.462 in MLB last year, we were expecting a borderline MVP performance from him this year. Instead, he's hitting just .247/.311/.382 with no home runs.

We expected very big things from Jon Gray this year. He posted very impressive numbers in MLB last year, and by moving from the league's most hitter-friendly ballpark to one of the league's best pitcher's parks, we were hoping to see a huge improvement in those numbers. Instead, his BDBL ERA (4.45) is only slightly lower than his 4.61 MLB ERA. What irritates me most of all is that he has walked 19 batters in only 32+ innings. His BB/9 rate of 5.3 isn't in the same universe as his MLB rate of 3.2. He's also allowed home runs at a higher rate (1.7 vs. 1.0). Seriously, how do you go from Coors Field to Anaheim and allow MORE home runs??

Stephen Strasburg was supposed to be our staff ace. Instead, he managed to win only one game in Chapter One, and posted a mediocre 4.10 ERA. He's already allowed six home runs, which is more than a third of the total number of homers he allowed all last year in MLB. Of course, this is nothing new with him.

Junior Guerra is another pitcher sporting an absolutely ridiculous walk total at this point. He allowed 3.2 BB/9 in MLB, and has allowed 5.9 BB/9 so far this season. Nearly every pitcher on the Salem pitching staff is allowing walks at a far higher rate than their MLB numbers. Raisel Iglesias (3.0 vs. 3.8), de la Rosa (3.6 vs. 4.4), and David Phelps (3.9 vs. 5.9) are also walking batters at a ridiculous pace. And bear in mind that I don't pitch around all that often!

THE UGLY

Speaking of Phelps, we were counting on him to be a workhorse in the bullpen, and we used him a lot in Chapter One. In 18+ innings, he allowed 10 runs -- all earned. His 4.91 ERA isn't anywhere near his MLB ERA of 2.28.

As a group, Salem pitchers are batting .054/.070/.054 this season. They have three hits this year. THREE. And one walk. ONE. They have zero extra base hits, and have knocked in zero runs. They have performed only slightly worse than our catching tandem of Travis d'Arnaud (.093/.111/.116) and Carlos Ruiz (.143/.294/.214.) When Sanchez isn't in the lineup -- which is more often than not -- we really need one of our two backup catchers to step up and -- oh, I don't know -- hit at least their weight! Combined, those two catchers have six hits -- SIX! -- in 59 at-bats.

Prior to the final series of the chapter, Elvis Andrus had posted numbers that weren't much better than our two backup catchers. He went on a tear in that series and raised his season average to .250/.319/.350. Prior to that series, he was hitting just .178/.250/.178! With a backup catcher and Andrus at the bottom of the lineup, it's like having three pitchers bat in a row!

Given all of the bad and ugly we witnessed in Chapter One, it's a miracle this team won twenty games! Next chapter, we face the daunting task of playing the Undertakers, Blazers, and Infidels all in the same chapter. Should be fun.

Opening Day

Opening Day. Are there any two more exciting words in the English language? "Free beer", perhaps. For Matt Clemm, "Taco Tuesday" may elicit equal excitement. For me, Opening Day means hope. Maybe this is the year. Maybe this time, all of my hard work will pay off. Maybe all that time I spent reading and pouring over numbers and spreadsheets will have actually paid dividends. Maybe the Baseball Gods will finally stop pissing all over me, and my team will perform exactly as awesomely as I expect. Maybe this year, Lucy won't yank that football away, and I'll kick it straight through the goalposts.

Then, before the first game has ended, all of that hope completely drains from my system and is instantly replaced by that familiar sensation of simmering rage in the pit of my belly, and I ask myself, "Why, why, why do I waste my time playing this stupid fucking game?"

Tony Chamra hates me. That is the only explanation I have as to why he forces me to open each season in the pit stain of New Milford. Don't get me wrong, I love the town itself. I was born and raised there. It is a quaint New England village that seems to have been hermetically-sealed in a time capsule. You walk along its lush town green, lined along each side by little mom-and-pop-run shops and buildings that have stood since before the American Revolution, with a World War II tank at one end of the green and a statue of Abe Lincoln at the other, with a green-painted bandstand at its center, and it feels as if you've been magically transported into a Norman Rockwell painting.

But if you stroll a little further away from this heartwarming scenery, toward the darkened waters of the Housatonic River, you will soon spot its looming presence on the horizon. Then, that smell will invade your nostrils and there is no mistaking where you are. Nestle Field, home of the despicable Blazers.

It is an eyesore amidst the lush New England landscape. Its architect must have been the same person who designed the Death Star. Gray, bleak, and uninviting. As you approach the monstrosity further, you begin to see and hear them. Pretentious New Milford fans, strolling toward the ballpark in their Izod-clad ensembles, with their white linen pants and boat shoes. Between discussions about their yacht club and the most recent editorial by Paul Krugman, you will hear these modern-day Yuppies brag about how bored they are with their favorite ballclub. "Winning a hundred games every year has become so mundane," one will say. "Why, it's hardly worth the effort to watch them anymore, knowing the outcome is predestined. If it weren't for the fabulous brie and wine selection at the Stadium Club, I'd probably forgo the entire charade."

Oddly enough, mixed in with these self-impressed snobs are legions of farmers smelling of manure and working-class joes covered with grease and oil. For the most part, these fans fill the right field bleachers, where they continue the proud Blazers tradition of performing a "roll call" where they give the middle finger to every member of the opposing team.

Our spring training schedule was a bit limited this year, and we played only six games. Oddly enough, all six were against the Blazers. When we won all six of those games, I knew right away that we were in trouble for this Opening Day Series. Surely, the Baseball Gods were fucking with me earlier than usual. My suspicions seemed unwarranted at first, as we took a 3-0 lead through the first six innings.

Our ace, Stephen Strasburg, has always struggled against the Blazers (with one notable postseason exception), but he was in cruise control throughout this game. After seven innings and 107 pitches, it was time to lift him and turn to our bullpen. And that is when Lucy yanked the football away once again.

We spent the winter trying to secure a closer. We tried to trade for one and failed. We tried to sign one in the auction, and even bid more than we ever wanted to bid for a reliever, and went 0-for-3. That left only three viable closers on the free agent market, and with the eighth overall pick in the draft, we felt fairly confident we would get one of them. But no. So, instead, we settled for the consolation prize of David Phelps.

Aside from issuing a few too many walks to left-handers, Phelps is a pretty decent reliever. Used in the right situations, he could be tremendously useful. I brought him into what I thought was an appropriate situation, where he would face two right handers in the next three batters in the order. Instead, Blazers skipper Anthony Peburn pinch hit for his expensive shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, sending lefty Greg Garcia to the plate instead.

No problem, I figured. Garcia draws a lot of walks, and Phelps issues a lot them, so that's probably what will happen. But no. Garcia doubled to lead off the inning. After Phelps whiffed another left-handed pinch hitter, that brought righty James McCann to the plate. Let me pause here a minute to give you McCann's numbers against righties:

.201/.243/.268

I wasn't even sure why McCann was in the lineup, frankly. I was ecstatic when a pinch hitter wasn't called to hit for him. My ecstasy didn't last long. McCann roped a base hit to center, easily scoring Garcia from second.

No problem, I thought. We're still up by a run. New Milford had Carpenter, Betts, and Freeman stepping to the plate. Carpenter and Freeman are both left-handed, and Betts can't hit lefties. So, the no-brainer move was to send my best left-handed pitcher, Mike Montgomery, out to the mound to shut this shit down.

The first batter, Carpenter, whiffed. Visions of winning the OL Manager of the Year swirled in my head.

Betts, who -- again -- can't hit lefties, singled. That's okay, though. He's still a good hitter, and we only need one more out.

Up stepped Freddie Freeman, New Milford's $13.5 million free agent winter bonus baby.

Double to the gap. Two runs scored. Game over.

That familiar sensation of boiling blood churned in my gut once more. Welcome, old friend. How I haven't missed you a bit.

That sensation continued in Game Two. Masahiro Tanaka, who our offense beat like a red-headed Jesse Pinkman in the preseason, completely shut down our righty-bashing, tailor-made-for-Nestle Field lineup. We managed all of two bloop singles through the first six innings. Gary Sanchez put us on the board in the seventh with the first home run of his BDBL career, but that was all the scoring we would do in this game.

After a 6-0 preseason, we then sat with an 0-2 record for the games that actually count.

Game Three kept the blood boiling. New Milford carried a 4-1 lead into the seventh inning. Once again, our high-octane offense decided to take the day off. Or so it seemed. Finally, in the seventh inning, the Cowtippers I knew and loved in the preseason finally showed up. Trea Turner got the ball rolling with a three-run pinch-hit bomb -- the first of his BDBL career. We scored four more runs in the eighth inning, and three more in the ninth. We scored 11 runs in the game -- ten of them in the final three innings!

At last, we had our first victory of 2017.

Just as it seemed our 2017 season would be filled with even more disappointment, we had reason for optimism once again. Hope was alive. Maybe this could be our year after all.

We handed the ball to Junior Guerra in Game Four, and he did not disappoint. He gave us six strong innings of shutout pitching, allowing just three hits and four walks. We then turned the game over to our bullpen trio of Rubby de la Rosa, David Phelps, and Sammy Solis. Incredibly, they managed to handle the workload, surrendering only one run.

We escaped with a split. If you had told me before this series we would split, I would've been disappointed. If you told me in the sixth inning of Game One that we would split, I would've been extremely disappointed. Given the circumstances, however, we'll take it. This is the first time since 2012 that we haven't begun a season with a losing record after one series.

One thing I have learned about this 2017 Cowtippers team is that they are extremely fun to manage. There is just so much flexibility on this roster. I can move guys around in the starting lineup or during the game, and really take advantage of situations as they develop. If I need a power bat at a certain point, I have one. If I need a guy to draw a walk or put a ball in play, we have that, too. Nearly every player on this team can steal a base if needed, and nearly every one of them can go first to third or second to home without much risk.

We have three players on the active roster who are rated at shortstop, three who are rated in center field, and one who is rated at third base, shortstop, and left field. In the bullpen, we have three relievers who are also rated as starters. We have righty-specialists, lefty-specialists, and reverse-split specialists. It really is fun moving all of these chess pieces around the board.

Best of luck to all my fellow GM's and managers this season. May Lucy not yank away your football.

2017 Cowtippers Farm Report

In 2016, we stockpiled farm talent. In 2017, we unloaded most of that talent in order to compete. Such is life on the Salem farm. Had we not sacrificed Amed Rosario, Blake Rutherford, Chance Adams, Aaron Judge, Dominic Smith, Corey Ray, Jorge Mateo, Jeff Hoffman, and Austin Hedges this winter, I believe the Salem farm club would have ranked #1 in this year's BDBL Farm Report. That would have been the first #1 ranking since 2003! As it stands, I believe we should rank among the top 5-10 farm systems even after all of our wheeling and dealing. 

Salem's Top Ten Prospects

1. Shohei Otani, p
Born: July 5, 1994 (age 22). B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 189. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: Otani has had some remarkable seasons in the past, but 2016 was his best performance to date. The greatest player in the Japanese NPB, Otani set career highs in several categories. The most recent collective bargaining agreement severely reduces Otani's potential earning power when he comes to the US; however, according to his manager, he plans to make that transition after the 2017 season regardless of the money.

Stats: Otani's 1.86 ERA last season was a career-best. In 140 innings, he allowed only 89 hits (5.7 per nine!), 45 walks, and just four home runs. He struck out 174 batters, which is a career-best rate of 11.2 per nine. But that's only half the story. He also had a career year at the plate. In 382 PA's (another career-high), Otani batted .322/.416/.588 (all career-highs), with 22 home runs!

The Future: There is little doubt that Otani will come to the US after next season, which would put him in a 'Tippers uniform in 2019. We resisted the temptation to deal him this winter. We only need to keep resisting that temptation, and the reward could be legendary.

2. Andrew Benintendi, of
Born: July 6, 1994 (age 22.) B-T: L-L. Ht: 5-10. Wt: 170. Acquired: via trade, Chapter Three, 2016.

Background: Who in his right mind trades Kris Bryant? The reigning National League MVP, Bryant is arguably the best player in baseball not named Mike Trout, and has just begun a career that could potentially end in Cooperstown. To trade such a talent would have to require quite a haul in return -- and that is what we feel we received when we traded Bryant last year. Benintendi was the major piece in that trade. He is exactly the type of player we wanted as the centerpiece of our franchise. We envision him having an Alex Gordon type of career, only hopefully without the early struggles. We flipped another piece of that trade, Miguel Sano, for Gary Sanchez. A third piece, Austin Hedges, was traded for Miguel Cabrera. To get three for the price of one was a deal too tempting to reject.

Stats: Benintendi had nothing more to prove in the minor leagues after destroying the New York Penn and Sally Leagues in 2015, but Boston sent him back to the bush leagues to begin the 2016 season anyway. He continued to destroy minor league pitching until he could be held back no more and the Red Sox promoted him for good on August 10th. He basically compiled the equivalent of a full season in the minor leagues, in which he hit .312/.392/.540 in 657 PA's. He clubbed 38 doubles, 16 triples, and 20 home runs and walked (74) more often than he struck out (63). He also stole 26 bases for good measure.

In his MLB debut, he hit .295/.359/.476 in a very limited 118 PA sample, cut short by a freak injury in September.

The Future: Barring another freak injury, we expect Benintendi to be our full-time, middle-of-the-lineup, star in 2018 and beyond. He should be ranked among the top 3-5 prospects in the game when this year's BDBL Farm Report is released.

3. Rafael Devers, 3b
Born: October 24, 1996 (age 20). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 195. Acquired: 6th round, summer, 2013 draft

Background: For the first time in his professional career, Devers struggled during his first month at the High-A level. He hit just .138/.242/.263 in the month of April and followed that with a .245/.301/.351 performance in May. At last, he turned his season around in June and carried that momentum into the offseason.

Stats: Overall, his 2016 performance looks nearly identical to 2015: .282/.335/.443, with 11 home runs and 32 doubles in 503 at-bats. It doesn't look all that impressive until you realize that he played the entire season at age 19. Jomar Reyes and Gleyber Torres were the only two hitters younger than Devers in the Carolina League. In addition to his hitting, Devers reportedly made greats strides defensively, and now looks to be an asset at third base.

The Future: Devers should begin 2017 at the Double-A level, where we will finally get a chance to scout him in person. If he can carry his momentum into this coming season, there is a slim chance we could see him get a cup of coffee in September. More than likely, however, it will be 2019 at the earliest before we see him in a Cowtippers uniform.

4. J.B. Bukauskas, p
Born: August 11, 1996 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 196. Acquired: 1st round, 2017 Farm Draft

Background: Bukauskas was released by the Granite State Lightning on Cutdown Day, and we were more than happy to pick him back up in the draft. A hard-throwing right-hander, Bukauskas has a "70" fastball on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also throws a mid-80's slider that is graded a 60. He is currently ranked as the #6 prospect in the upcoming draft by MLB.com.

Stats: J.B. ranked third in NCAA Division I baseball last year with a 12.8 strikeouts per nine rate. In 78+ innings, he allowed 68 hits and 29 walks, with 111 strikeouts and a 3.10 ERA. With Team USA this summer, he allowed only one run in 21+ innings.

The Future: Way back in 2003, we took a flier on a young college pitcher from Old Dominion in the eighth round of the winter farm draft. We selected that pitcher based on his scouting reports and his high strikeout rate in college. A few months later, we traded that pitcher in exchange for a mostly useless reliever. That college kid, Justin Verlander, turned out to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. We're hoping to catch lightning in a bottle again -- only this time, we'll hang onto it.

5. Brady Singer, p
Born: August 4, 1996 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-5. Wt: 190. Acquired: 2nd round, 2017 Farm Draft

Background: Singer is a rising sophomore with the University of Florida Gators. He was the highest-picked draftee from 2015 who decided to attend college instead of signing a professional contract. He will not be draft-eligible again until 2018, when he should be considered among the top prospects available. This summer, he was ranked by Baseball America as the top prospect in the Cape Cod League.

Stats: As a freshman, Singer tossed 43+ innings for the Gators, and allowed 43 hits and 17 walks, with 38 strikeouts. His 4.95 ERA was the highest on the team. During the Cape League this summer, he posted a minuscule 0.64 ERA in 28 innings, with 25 strikeouts.

The Future: Aside from his summer experience, Singer's numbers have yet to match his scouting reports. His sophomore season will either reveal a hidden gem or an overreach by our draft team. Time will tell.

6. Lucas Erceg, 3b
Born: May 1, 1995 (age 21). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 200. Acquired: 3rd round, 2017 Farm Draft

Background: Erceg may have been the only player to elicit "damn-you's" from multiple teams when he was drafted this winter. Ranked as the #4 prospect in the Pioneer League and #20 prospect in the Midwest League, Erceg was a second round draft pick by the Brewers in 2016. He dominated the Pioneer League before a quick promotion to the Single-A Midwest League. He draws comparisons to Matt Carpenter because of his smooth left-handed swing.

Stats: Erceg completely overmatched Pioneer League pitching, hitting .400/.452/.552 in a short 105-AB sample. Upon his promotion, he hit .281/.328/.497 in 167 at-bats. He owns a respectable 20/54 BB/K ratio in his brief professional career.


The Future: Erceg is the type of player who can advance rapidly, both through the system and up the prospect ranking. If everything falls into place for him, he could be a top 50 prospect at this time next year.

7. Henry Owens, p
Born: July 21, 1992 (age 24). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-6. Wt: 220. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2017

Background: Way back in December of 2007, we took a flier on a 24-year-old left-hander with the Boston Red Sox organization. The kid was raw. He walked way too many batters, and was approaching the age where it was becoming clear he would never figure it out. We saw something in that kid, though, so we took a gamble on him, and acquired him (along with a young Dellin Betances) in trade with the Ravenswood Infidels. A little more than a month later, we foolishly traded him to the Los Altos Undertakers in exchange for a mostly useless reliever. That young kid's name was Jon Lester. We're hoping history will repeat itself -- right up to the foolish part. 

Stats: Owens' MLB performance last year was pretty much a disaster, albeit in a very small sample. In 22 innings, he allowed a whopping 20 walks and five longballs. He posted an ugly 6.95 ERA, which raised his MLB career ERA (in 85 innings) to 5.19. Although his Triple-A ERA was much better (3.53), he still walked more than five batters per nine (81 walks in 137+ innings.)



The Future: Look up the word "flyer" in the dictionary, and there's a picture of Owens staring back at you. The Boston starting rotation is so jam-packed that there doesn't seem to be any room for Owens on the big league roster. A trade to some team with a fantastic pitching coach would be a godsend. This is a make-or-break year for his career.

8. Vladimir Gutierrez, p
Born: September 18, 1995 (age 22.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 170. Acquired: 5th round, 2014 summer draft.

Background: Gutierrez was ranked the twelfth best prospect in Cuba by BA before his defection. He then spent more than a year trying out for various teams and underwhelming the scouts who attended. Perhaps it was fatigue or the long layoff, but eventually he regained the fastball and curveball that led to his glowing scouting reports in Cuba. On August 30th of last year, the Reds paid a whopping $4.75 million to sign him. Since then, he has worked out at instructional camp and has hit the weights. 2017 will be his US professional debut.

Stats: In his debut season in the Cuban National League, Gutierrez posted a 3.90 ERA in 67 innings, with 40 walks and 44 strikeouts. In his abbreviated second season, his ERA fell to 2.45 in 51+ innings. He cut his walks in half (19) and struck out 49 batters.

The Future: Gutierrez is likely to begin his US career in the Midwest League. Where he goes from there depends on how accurate those scouting reports were.

9. Adrian Rondon, ss
Born: July 7, 1998 (age 18.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: Ranked as the #7 prospect in the Appalachian League, Rondon was one of the youngest players in the league last year. He exploded out of the gate, but then seemed to wear down as the season progressed. He was considered to be the #1 prospect in the 2014 international draft class.

Stats: Rondon followed an abysmal professional debut by hitting a respectable .249/.301/.430 in 193 at-bats. He slugged seven home runs, ten doubles, and two triples. He also posted a 13/58 BB/K ratio.


The Future: Rondon's path to the big leagues, assuming there is one, will be a long one. Assuming he advances one level per year, it will be four more years before he reaches the big leagues. That means we won't see him in Salem until 2022 at the earliest. Hopefully this league is still around by then.

10. Ryan Castellani, p

Born: April 1, 1996 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 193. Acquired: drafted 5th round, 2017 winter farm draft.

Background: Castellani was ranked as the #1 prospect in the California League by Baseball America, and yet he fell to the fifth round of the BDBL farm draft. On the plus side, he performed exceptionally well despite being one of the youngest players in the league and pitching in a league that is notoriously difficult for pitchers. On the downside, his numbers look rather pedestrian compared to other top prospects. According to reports, he owns three "plus" pitches -- all of which he commands well. He has earned comparisons to Max Scherzer for the way he approaches the game.

Stats: Overall, Castellani allowed 156 hits and 50 walks in 168 innings, and struck out 142 batters. He finished the year strong, with a 2.37 ERA in his final seven starts.

The Future: Baseball America described him as a "front of the rotation workhorse." If that label sticks, the Cowtippers will have landed a bargain. If not, it's only a fifth round pick.

The State of the Tippers, Winter Edition

It has been another active and exciting winter trading season here in Salem. Our primary goal this winter was to build a competitive team without sacrificing our core players: Miguel Sano, Amed Rosario, Andrew Benintendi, Shohei Otani, Rafael Devers, Stephen Matz, Jon Gray, and Trea Turner. We would have succeeded in that mission if not for the trades of Sano and Rosario to Granite State. However, we feel that both trades were justified for different reasons.

By trading Sano, we received another player that we hope can join that core in Gary Sanchez. Since the beginning of this franchise, when we drafted a young Ben Davis at a salary of $2 million, we have been searching for our "catcher of the future." That search has led us to the likes of Jeff Clement, Matt LeCroy, Kurt Suzuki, Jeremy Brown, Kenji Johjima, and countless others. Needless to say, our track record with catchers has been abysmal. We're hoping that Sanchez can finally break that trend.

As for Rosario, we had countless opportunities to trade him over the years. We've had numerous offers for him, and we have offered him in many offers ourselves. Thankfully, none of those offers materialized. We received many offers for Rosario this winter, and nearly traded him for an ace starting pitcher earlier this winter. We rejected that temptation, as we believe that Rosario will be an all-star MLB shortstop in the very near future. However, when the Washington Nationals traded their shortstop, Danny Espinoza, to the Angels, that meant Trea Turner would be moving back to shortstop. Suddenly, we had one too many "shortstops of the future."

The opportunity to acquire an MVP bat like Jose Altuve's was too tempting to dismiss. Although he will only play one year for us, we look forward to seeing him at the top of the Salem lineup this year. Trading Altuve also meant that we could fortify our bullpen by trading our second baseman, Neil Walker. We did just that, receiving lefty Mike Montgomery in return. We feel that Mike will have some future value that will offset the loss of the future value we traded in Rosario.

As it now stands, the Salem starting lineup looks very strong this season. In addition to Altuve, we recently acquired lefty masher Kyle Seager to play third base. This allows us to shift Jose Ramirez to shortstop against right-handers, which sends our expensive albatross, Starlin Castro, to the bench where he belongs.

As we head into the auction, our starting lineup looks very strong against both left-handed and right-handed pitching:

vs. LH			vs. RH
CF Turner	.317/.338/.413 (65)		2B Altuve	.348/.398/.544 (531)
2B Altuve	.306/.391/.494 (186)		LF Herrera*	.303/.374/.467 (494)
LF Werth	.322/.411/.620 (141)		SS Ramirez	.312/.361/.457 (436)
1B Cabrera	.302/.409/.517 (176)		3B Seager*	.307/.394/.538 (437)
3B Ramirez	.311/.368/.473 (182)		C Sanchez	.338/.404/.689 (166)
C Ruiz	.271/.407/.386 (86)		1B Cabrera	.321/.388/.578 (503)
RF Soler	.267/.345/.467 (84)		RF Dickerson*	.254/.333/.477 (219)
SS Sardinas	.302/.343/.492 (69)		CF Turner	.348/.378/.607 (259)

Obviously, we will need to frequently substitute for Turner, Sanchez, and some others, but we have some capable backups in place for those occasions. Our starting rotation looks strong as well:

Strasburg	148-119-15-44-183 (615/658)
Shoemaker	160-166-18-30-143 (705/745)
Matz*	132-129-14-31-129 (698/686)
Gray	168-153-18-59-185 (694/712)
Guerra	122-94-10-43-100 (618/645)
Norris*	69-75-10-22-71 (648/800)

And our bullpen is rounding into shape:

Solis*	41-31-1-21-47 (556/639)
Iglesias	78-63-7-26-83 (777/483)
de la Rosa	51-43-8-20-54 (656/725)
O'Rourke*	25-18-3-10-24 (359/725)
Montgomery*	100-79-8-38-92 (570/691)
Hunter	34-35-1-8-23 (715/656)

We have a little more than $15 million to play with in the auction and draft, and we've yet to decide what we will do with that. Our farm system (which we believe would have ranked #1 in this year's Farm Report if we hadn't made any trades this winter) has been depleted, so we still have a lot of work ahead of us.

Our goal isn't to merely compete this year, but to compete for the next several years. This past year, two franchises developed the blueprint that we would like to follow: the Chicago Cubs and the Los Altos Undertakers. If we can mimic even a fraction of the success those two franchises have experienced, then we will consider it a great success.