Is It All My Fault?!

A recent post by four-time league champion and four-time OL Manager of the Year Jeff Paulson on our league forum lays the blame for our disappointing 2021 season squarely at my feet. The issue, Paulson believes, is that I used my starting pitchers in relief to the detriment of our team. It isn't the first time this strategy has been called into question. Paulson makes several valid points in his post. Was this strategy really to blame for Salem's mysterious under-performance this year? Let's take a look.

First, let me explain the reasoning behind this strategy. When I looked at our roster during the preseason, and compared it to every other roster in the league, it became glaringly obvious that we held an advantage over the rest of the league due to our starting rotation. I wanted to find a way to maximize that advantage as much as possible. Using those pitchers in the most high-leveraged situations seemed like a good strategy, especially given the weakness of our bullpen -- and the dearth of quality relief pitching anywhere in the league. Using one of our aces in an 8-0 game is a waste of resources. Using an ace to protect a one-run lead seemed to be a better use of their limited usage.

On Opening Day, Strasburg (.630 opponents OPS), Scherzer (.625), Sonny Gray (.671), and Jon Gray (.720 in Coors Field) all sported an opponents OPS lower than every reliever on our roster aside from David Bednar (.659) and Taylor Guilbeau (.666). Bednar (6.57 ERA) was pounded so hard in Chapter One that we removed him as closer. We used Scherzer twice out of the bullpen that chapter, and Sonny Gray five times, resulting in three saves for Gray out of four opportunities. The strategy, it seemed, was working.

The wheels fell completely off the wagon from that point forward, both in terms of our strategy and our season. As the season progressed, I stubbornly stuck to my original strategy, even after adding several quality relievers in trade. The fact is that our starting pitchers were still better than our relievers -- even the new guys.

Here are the end results of our experiment:

Six starting pitchers posted a 3.29 ERA in 146 games as starters. The SAME SIX PITCHERS posted a 4.60 ERA pitching in relief. They allowed a lot more hits and walks in relief, but roughly the same rate of home runs and strikeouts. In total, they blew 14 saves in 32 opportunities, while saving only 16 games. Each one of those six starters posted an ERA at least one full run worse in relief than they did as starters, with the exception of Scherzer. Sonny Gray's ERA was FOUR RUNS higher in relief. Clevinger's was over three runs higher.

Needless to say, this experiment was a collosal failure. But should it have been? Diamond Mind's documentation mentions nothing about the effectiveness of a starting pitcher used in relief. The only mention is this: "A player who was not used as a reliever in real life does not have a relief rating. If he is used in relief, he will have above-average durability in that role, since his arm is accustomed to long outings."

There is no mention anywhere in the Diamond Mind documentation or website about a starting pitcher's performance suffering from pitching in relief...and yet here we are. Either the game DOES, in fact, punish pitchers used in relief who have no relief durability rating OR we simply ran into some amazingly bad luck.

How bad was our luck this year? Here are a few examples:

• In a game against Highland, I brought Strasburg in to close out a 1-0 game in the ninth inning. He gave up a walk, and then two quick outs, before pinch hitter David Fletcher singled home the tying run.
• In a game against Ravenswood, we were leading 2-0 heading into the bottom of the eighth. We tried to let Bednar close it out, but he allowed three singles to the first three batters he faced. So I handed the ball once again to Strasburg to stop the bleeding. Instead, he gave up a two-run triple to pinch hitter Jose Peraza.
• We were on the verge of a come-from-behind win against our division rivals, Joplin, during the final chapter. We led by a score of 6-5 in the ninth. I handed the ball to Strasburg to close it out. Instead, he gave up back-to-back home runs to the only two batters he faced: the tying and walk-off-win runs of the game.
• In a Chapter Three game against Allentown, both Strasburg AND Scherzer blew the game in relief. We led 6-2 heading into the eighth inning when Sean Doolittle ran into trouble. To stop the bleeding, we turned to Scherzer, who served up a two-run double and an RBI single to tie the score. Then, in the 12th inning, Strasburg served up a three-run home run to Matt Olson with two outs. Game over.
• Sonny Gray was given a chance to save a game in Chapter One, in which we were leading 3-0 against South Loop. Once again, our bullpen (Aaron Bummer this time) ran into trouble, and once again, we asked one of our all-star starters to put out the fire. Instead, Gray coughed up a pair of singles and a sac fly to the #7 and #8 hitters in the Furies lineup. Bednar then served up a walk-off homer in extra innings.
• Gray was also asked to protect a 6-5 lead in the ninth inning of a game against Vegas. He struck out the first two batters he faced...and then allowed two singles and a walk-off double.
• We had used up most of our bullpen, including seldom-used Sam Tuivailala, by the time we brought Sonny Gray into the game to protect a 5-3 lead in the ninth inning. Instead, he served up a three-run triple (with two outs, of course) to pinch hitter Franklin Barreto.
• Jon Gray was asked to pitch a very crucial eighth inning against Joplin in Chapter Five. Tasked with protecting a 5-4 lead, Gray instead gave up a three-run bomb to Marcell Ozuna.
• We held a commanding 4-0 lead heading into the fifth inning against Los Altos when our bullpen slowly and methodically began to give it all away. The Undertakers managed to cut our lead to 6-5 heading into the eighth inning. Having once again exhausted our bullpen (Ohtani, Doolittle, Workman, and Bummer), we once again asked Jon Gray to get through the heart of the Los Altos lineup and get us out of the jam created by Workman and Bummer: no outs, two runners on. A walk, a single, a sac fly, and a three-run homer later, we were looking at yet another blown save and a crucial loss.

There are several more examples, of course, but this hopefully gets the point across. Time and again, throughout this entire season, we seemed to encounter unusually bad luck in late innings, regardless of who we used in those situations. Taken individually, each one of the above examples is perfectly reasonable. Shit happens, as they say. But when shit like this happens fourteen times (at least!) in one season, you have to wonder if the game is broken or if your assumptions about the game are simply wrong.

I tried to think outside the box. I tried to find a way to work around this dreaded projection disk and the smoothed-out stats that made dominant relief pitchers extinct. I tried to use our best assets in the best possible way. In the end, I failed. Plain and simple.

2021 Autopsy Report

A few random thoughts about the biggest bullshit season we've ever played.

•  We outscored our opponents by 111 runs. Only three other teams in the BDBL accomplished that feat. All three are in the playoffs. The team with the best record in the Ozzie League, Las Vegas, outscored their opponents by only 74 runs (as of press time.) Joplin, with eight games remaining, has outscored their opponents by only 56.
• Our theme all season was "We Can't Hit Worth Shit." In the end, we finished with a team batting line of .244/.309/.418. All three of those categories are below the league average.
• On the plus side, Rafael Devers finally came around in the second half after an abysmal first half. He finished at .264/.323/.497 with 32 homers, which is close enough to his .292/.344/.530 (33 HR) disk line.
• Devers finished with 29 errors and a .919 fielding percentage. As a team, we made 124 errors, which is two more than the next-highest total in the BDBL. Our .979 fielding percentage ranks dead-last in the BDBL.
• Our pitching staff posted a 2.44 ERA in Chapter One, and a 3.87 ERA the rest of the way. It turned out that the weird anomaly wasn't our second chapter struggles, but the first chapter over-performance.
• Max Scherzer (14-10, 2.79 ERA in 190 IP, 268 K) and Stephen Strasburg (15-12, 2.96 ERA in 201 IP, 280 K) both deserve consideration for the Cy Young award. Has there ever been a franchise in BDBL history with two pitchers earning Cy Young votes on a team that didn't make the postseason? I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'd be shocked if that has ever happened before.
• We had trouble beating some horrible teams this year. We went just 8-8 against Darien, 9-7 against North Carolina, 6-6 against Ravenswood, and 6-6 against Lake Norman. That's just one game over .500 against the four worst teams (by record) in the Ozzie League.
• We also couldn't beat good teams. We went 7-9 against our division rivals in Joplin, 4-8 against Allentown, and 4-8 against Los Altos. The only first-place team we managed to beat were the Vegas Flamingos (8-4).
• We were a sub-.500 team on the road. If you could blame our offensive performance (or lack thereof) on our pitcher-friendly ballpark factors, then what explains this?
• We blew -- get this -- FOURTEEN leads after the seventh inning. This was the highest total in the league (one more than Allentown.) We also blew nine games when tied after seven. And we went an abysmal 22-27 in one-run games.
• Given the above, you would assume that our bullpen was atrocious. Yet, Sean Doolittle (1.64 ERA in 38+ IP), Brandon Workman (1.91 in 42+), and Alex Colome (2.52 in 64+) were all solid. Ten different pitchers blew saves for us this year, but our 25 total blown saves ranks just fourth. The first-place Miners blew 26 saves -- so far.

Put it all together. We outscored our opponents by a massive number of runs. We hit a little below league-average. We had two Cy Young-worthy starting pitchers, and a bullpen with several decent arms. So...how the hell did we suck so badly?

The best explanation I have is: bad luck and bad timing. We played extremely poorly in clutch situations all year -- as borne out by the numbers I shared last chapter. When we needed hits, we didn't get them. When we needed to prevent hits, we didn't.

I may never understand exactly what went wrong this season. All I know is that I'm glad it's over.

Looking Ahead to 2022

With the passing of each and every series this season, it seems more and more likely that 2021 will be a lost season for the Cowtippers. We simply can't sustain a winning streak of more than two games no matter who we face. Our most recent series, resulting in a split against the last-place team in our division -- at home, against their MP, no less -- is only the latest example.

At some point, I will perform one final autopsy on this 2021 team. Today, now that the 2021 MLB season is officially in the books, we can safely look ahead to 2022. To be certain, we have a lot of holes to fill and questions to answer, but equally-certain is that we should (emphasis on "should", given what we have experienced this year) have a very strong team next season.

Our 2022 lineup includes four of the top twenty hitters in the game (ranked by WAR), including Trea Turner (#1), Brandon Crawford (#13), Shohei Ohtani (#18), and Rafael Devers (#20). We also technically still own the #11 overall hitter in baseball, Jose Altuve, but...well, we're not allowed to say.

On the pitching side of the ball, we own the fifth-best pitcher in baseball, Max Scherzer, and...well, that's pretty much it. We do, however, have a very strong bullpen to make up for our fairly weak (and usage-limited) starting rotation beyond Scherzer.

At this moment, our starting lineup against left-handers looks like this:

1. Ramon Laureano, RF: .304/.380/.478
2. Trea Turner, 2B: .392/.437/.712
3. Andrew Benintendi, CF: .303/.340/.455
4. Shohei Ohtani, LF: .263/.344/.636
5. Rafael Devers, 3B: .278/.345/.405

6. TBD, 1B
7. TBD, C

8. Brandon Crawford, SS: .244/.300/.422

We also have a monster weapon against lefties off the bench in last chapter's pickup, Lane Thomas, who hit .381/.500/.603 in 78 PA's. Yadiel Hernandez (.300/.349/.513) gives us another pinch-hitting weapon.

Against righties:

1. Trea Turner, 2B: .305/.353/.475

2. Brandon Crawford, SS: .319/.401/.560

3. Rafael Devers, 3B: .280/.357/.621

4. Shohei Ohtani, LF: .254/.388/.566

5. Andrew Benintendi, CF: .264/.318/.437

6. TBD, 1B

7. TBD, RF

8. TBD, C

As you can see, we have several holes to fill from now until Opening Day. At this moment, we have roughly $20 million to fill those holes.

Our 2022 starting rotation, to date:

1. Max Scherzer: 179 IP, 597/541 splits

2. Framber Valdez: 135 IP, 717/626

3. Shohei Ohtani: 130 IP, 733/536

4. Jon Gray: 149 IP, 730/753

We need roughly 360 more innings, which means we'll need to acquire two starters before the bell rings.

Our bullpen currently looks like this:

RH Ryan Tepera: 61 IP, 429/559 splits

LH Jake McGee: 60 IP, 496/593

RH David Bednar: 61 IP, 531/611
RH Dominic Leone: 54 IP, 501/580

RH Paul Sewald: 65 IP, 650/545

LH Gregory Soto: 64 IP, 495/696

RH Matt Wisler: 49 IP, 702/653

RH Luis Garcia: 33 IP, 864/367

RH J.B. Wendelken: 44 IP, 803/644

This gives us three right-handed closers that are effective against both lefties and righties, two lefty-killing setup men, a righty-killer setup man, and a few innings-eaters. I would feel comfortable heading into Opening Day right now with this bullpen.

Overall, I feel that we are in a better position this year than we were at this time last year. Clearly, trying to win with a roster filled with all-star-caliber starting pitchers doesn't work in the BDBL. Maybe this offense-heavy approach will work better. It will certainly be a lot more fun watching the Cowtippers actually score some runs every now and then.

Chapter Five Review

Another chapter, another crushing disappointment.

We finished Chapter Five the same way we finished the preceding three chapters, combined: with a .500 record. The epitome of mediocrity. We are now 52-52 since the end of Chapter One, despite adding Jose Altuve, Mike Clevinger, Kurt Suzuki, Kolten Wong, Sean Doolittle, and Brandon Workman during that period. Over that same period, we rank seventh in the Ozzie League in runs per game with a paltry 4.8 (barely above the league average of 4.6). We hit .240/.310/.421 over that timeframe, compared to a league-average rate of .247/.315/.419.

By nearly every measure, we own a league-average offense despite having five players on our roster that posted an 800+ OPS on the disk. All five of those players are underperforming, with an OPS that ranges anywhere from 29 (Christian Walker) to 105 (Rafael Devers) points below their disk OPS. We also have two other batters with a disk OPS of .790+. One of them (Ramon Laureano) is actually outperforming his disk OPS by 26 points. The other, David Freese, is currently sporting an OPS (as a Cowtipper) of .605 -- a whopping 186 points below his disk OPS.

After slumping for several chapters, Devers has finally picked up the pace of late, and yet he is still batting just .198/.260/.397 against lefties (compared to .288/.337/.506 on the disk.) Yadiel Hernandez -- sporting an OPS of 801 on the disk against right-handers -- is currently hitting .231/.310/.394 against righties. Kurt Suzuki and Kolten Wong, added in order to boost our offense, are hitting .244/.312/.402 and .230/.335/.323 for us, respectively.

On the pitching side, we posted an incredible team ERA of 2.44 in the first chapter. Our team ERA since then? 3.98. That is only the third-best ERA in the Ozzie League during that period. Same pitchers, with the exceptions of some quality additions, and yet they're over a run and a half WORSE. Go figure.

Sonny Gray became the first Cowtipper in history to toss a no-hitter earlier this year. He is sporting a 5.10 ERA over the past four chapters. Jon Gray was an all-star this year. His ERA since the end of Chapter One: 4.43. Mike Clevinger was the ace of the Akron staff before we acquired him. With Salem, he's just 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA over 62+ innings. Max Scherzer, Chapter One's Pitcher of the Chapter, is just 9-7 with a 3.60 ERA since then.

Stephen Strasburg, Scherzer, Clevinger, Sonny Gray, and Jon Gray, on paper, may be the greatest starting rotation ever assembled in the BDBL. Combined, they are just 37-34 with a 4.13 ERA over the past four chapters.

Lastly, there is the defense. We rank dead-last in the entire BDBL in fielding percentage (.979), and own a comfortable lead in errors. In fact, as of this writing, we're the only team in the BDBL with over 100 errors -- with 28 games left to play this season. Shohei Ohtani is a tremendous liability in the field no matter where we play him. He posted a .951 fielding percentage at first base (14 errors in 48 games started.) We then moved him to right field this past chapter, where he has already committed more errors (5) in 24 starts than any other outfielder on our roster has committed all season. In addition to the errors, Ohtani has atrocious range, takes bad routes to balls, and costs us several hits and runs just by being so godawful with the glove. Yet, because he owns the second-highest OPS on our team against right-handers, it's difficult not to include him in the lineup.

And then there is Alex Colome. In 55 innings, poor Alex has yet to record a put-out. He has only one assist. Yet, somehow, some way, in five total chances in the field, he has committed FOUR errors. Seriously. You can look it up.

Overall, the Cowtippers own the best runs differential in the McGowan Division -- and second-highest in the Ozzie League -- and yet we trail the Joplin Miners by two games. Our Pythagorean Difference of minus-6 is currently the worst in the Ozzie League, thanks in large part to our 19-24 record in one-run games. We lead the entire BDBL in blown leads after seven innings, with thirteen. No other team has more than ten. Yet, oddly enough, our bullpen ranks among the top five teams in the BDBL in lowest inherited runners scoring percentage, and in the middle of the pack in blown saves and blown save percentage. We simply have run into bad luck. Again and again and again and again.

As always, we discovered some incredibly aggravating new ways to lose baseball games in Chapter Five:

• In our first of three losses against the Joplin Miners, Dan Vogelbach -- who had just been picked up off of the free agent garbage dump -- hit a home run off of Stephen Strasburg to take the lead. That ended up being the winning run of the game, as Joplin won by a score of 3-2.
• In the third game of that series, we took a 4-2 lead in the first inning, and cruised into the seventh inning, up 5-2. The wheels then fell off the bus when #7 and #8 hitters Danny Santana and pinch hitter Justin Smoak hit an RBI triple and double, respectively. Taylor Guilbeau and Jon Gray then loaded the bases in the eighth inning, and wife-beater Marcell Ozuna followed with a grand slam home run, putting the game away.
• Facing the lowly Darien Blue Wave, someone named Houser somehow managed to hold our offense to just one run over seven innings. The Darien bullpen then tossed two near-perfect innings of relief to close out the 3-1 win.
• One of our many one-run losses came at the hands of the lowly Iron Spider Pigs, who managed to SHUT OUT our offense with the combined effort of Merrill Kelly and some guys named Irvin, Fairbanks, Brogdon, and Suarez. We racked up eight hits and five walks, and failed to score a single run. We left a whopping ELEVEN runners on base.
• Against Bear Country, we carried a slim 7-6 lead into the eighth inning...and proceeded to serve up SIX runs. Clevinger, pitching in emergency relief, somehow managed to allow four runs to score on five hits and a walk...all while recording just one single out.
• We lost a game against Los Altos when Sean Doolittle -- our most reliable relief pitcher and best pitcher against lefties -- allowed a walk-off seeing-eye squibbler up the middle to lefty Joc Pederson.
• We carried a 4-0 lead into the fifth inning of the fourth game of that series, only to watch our pitching staff implode yet again in the late innings. We clung to a 6-5 lead heading into the eighth...and then watched in helplessness as FIVE runs crossed the plate.

Not only aren't we hitting or pitching well overall, but we're doing incredibly poorly in clutch situations. In late innings (7-9), when the score is within two runs or fewer, only five teams in the entire BDBL own a lower OPS than our .683 in that situation. When the score is tied in those late innings, our OPS drops to .608. When we're down by one run, our OPS in late innings is...get this...509! That is the same OPS as the South Philly Gritty!

We own a .727 OPS overall. With runners in scoring position, our OPS drops to .722. With two outs and RISP, it's .715.

Now, let's do pitching. Our overall team OPS allowed is .682. In innings 7-9, that OPS rises to .690. If the score is within two runs, our OPS is .689. Within one run: .698. With the score tied, it's just .525 -- best in the BDBL! But...if we're ahead in the late innings, watch out! If we lead by one, our OPS allowed jumps to a whopping .818! That's the fifth-worst in the league! If we're ahead by two, it's .723. With runners in scoring position, we allow a .729 OPS.

I don't know what to do about any of this. It is what it is. Improving this team via trade is no longer an option. Even if it were, the trades I've made to date have not improved this team whatsoever. We have 28 games to make up a two-game deficit. If we do, I do not feel confident at all about this team's chances in the postseason. If we don't, it's the most ridiculous thing that I've ever experienced in 22 seasons of playing in the BDBL.

It's Over

The division race is over. The 2021 season is over. It is time to concentrate on 2022. I am officially done with this team. For the first time (I think?) in our 22-year history, I am stepping down as the manager. I have handed off that duty to the MP. I have zero interest in managing this group of players any longer. It is pointless, and it is a waste of my time.

Our three-game deficit in the McGowan Division ballooned to five games thanks to a series loss -- at home -- against the Joplin Miners. Dan Vogelbach, who was discarded by the Los Altos Undertakers earlier this season and plucked off the free agent garbage dump by Doyle -- despite the fact that Doyle will have to pay $1.1 million at the end of this season to cut him -- hit two crucial home runs in the series, and was easily the MVP. (Note: although I say Doyle will have to pay to cut him, we all know Doyle won't be around at that point, so he won't pay any penalty whatsoever.)

The coup de grace was when noted wife-beater Marcell Ozuna -- discarded by the Highland Freedom earlier this year -- hit a game-winning pinch-hit grand slam home run in Game Three off of Jon Gray, who just happens to be one of the best pitchers in this game at preventing right-handed hitters like Ozuna from hitting home runs.

That was the straw that finally broke this camel's back.

Oh -- I also got to experience something I never thought was possible! Jim Doyle actually found a way to be even more of an annoying asshole than he already is! Throughout all three games that I managed, Doyle repeatedly took the first pitch, just to prolong the agony. And despite putting a number of his hitters into an early 0-1 count, they managed to reach base despite his effort to the contrary.

This game, and this ridiculous 2021 season, can kiss my ass.

Chapter Five Additions

I wasn't planning to make another trade this season, but when the opportunity arose to add Jose Altuve to our lineup, I just couldn't resist pulling the trigger. We have been hemorrhaging offensive production all season long at one particular spot in our lineup. Against left-handers, that spot has been Jose Pirela's. Pirela carries an 800+ OPS against lefties on the disk, but has hit just .217/.225/.380 this season. Against right-handers, Yadiel Hernandez sports an 800+ OPS on the disk, but has hit just .239/.320/.417.

Altuve doesn't play left field, so when the offer was made, I assumed he wasn't a fit. Then I realized that Kolten Wong and Nick Senzel can both shift to the outfield, which opens up second base. With one move, we've replaced an entirely useless dead spot in our lineup with an all-star-caliber hitter.

Of course, no acquisition comes without sacrifice. I've gone back and forth on Nick Madrigal's value to our franchise over the years. At times, I regarded him as a foundational player, and grouped him in with Devers, Turner, Ohtani, and Rutschman. At other times, I thought he could best serve as trade bait. After watching him play for roughly half a season in the big leagues, I have a pretty good idea what he is and what he will become.

Initially, my plan was to trade for a high pick in the upcoming free agent draft, use that pick to select David Fletcher, and it would be as if we added Altuve for nothing. (Fletcher and Madrigal are nearly identical players.) However, the idea of keeping Altuve is growing on me. Ohtani, Turner, and Devers all rank among the top ten (seven, really) in WAR this season. Altuve gives us four players in the top fifteen. Brandon Crawford makes five out of the top twenty. That's a very nice foundation for 2022.

The only issue with keeping Altuve is his $12 million salary. That would leave us with around $8 million to fill several holes. Also, keeping him means there would be nowhere to put Crawford. These are both good problems to have. Worst-case scenario is that we trade either Altuve or Max Scherzer and plug some of those holes in the process. We have already had an inquiry about Altuve, so I'm sure that it wouldn't be difficult at all to trade him or Scherzer.

*** 

Unfortunately, we were only able to pick up two free agents this chapter, due to a lack of players that we could release. That said, we're happy to have the two that we got: Sergio Romo and Dominic Leone. We've managed to collect a pretty decent bullpen for 2022 if they all continue pitching as well as they have to date:

David Bednar: 40 IP, 28 H, 5 HR, 15 BB, 50 K, 2.70 ERA, 612/626 splits

Dominic Leone: 23 IP, 14 H, 2 HR, 10 BB, 27 K, 1.54 ERA, 450/546 splits

Sergio Romo: 38 IP, 28 H, 2 HR, 11 BB, 39 K, 3.52 ERA, 591/554 splits

Jake McGee: 42 IP, 27 H, 5 HR, 7 BB, 45 K, 2.34 ERA, 376/591 splits

Paul Sewald: 31 IP, 19 H, 2 HR, 12 BB, 54 K, 2.30 ERA, 563/491 splits

Gregory Soto: 43 IP, 32 H, 4 HR, 27 BB, 53 K, 2.95 ERA, 526/697 splits

Jeffrey Springs: 43 IP, 33 H, 9 HR, 14 BB, 61 K, 3.53 ERA, 838/758 splits

Ryan Tepera: 43 IP, 22 H, 3 HR, 12 BB, 50 K, 2.91 ERA, 387/512 splits

Matt Wisler: 40 IP, 34 H, 6 HR, 9 BB, 53 K, 4.05 ERA, 658/713 splits

The best part about those nine guys above is that they earn a combined salary of just $1.3 million. Bednar was acquired as a free agent last year, and is the only one with a salary above $100K. All of the others were picked up this year, either in the $100K rounds of the draft or via free agency. 

*** 

Okay, let's talk about the 800-pound gorilla in the room. The unwritten rule in any fantasy baseball league is that each owner makes decisions in good faith, with his franchise's best interests (both present and future) at heart, just as a real-life GM of a real-life baseball team would do. Part of that good faith practice is the idea that no GM who plans to keep his job would ever burn his franchise to the ground in order to win now at any and all costs. It would be foolish and counterproductive to do so -- unless that GM doesn't plan to keep his job.

Jim Doyle is acting very much like someone who doesn't plan to stick around after this season. If that is true, and he has no future in the BDBL, then it doesn't matter what decisions he makes that impact his franchise's future. He can -- and has -- throw caution to the wind, sell the entire farm, and throw all of his eggs into the win-now basket, because hey, what does he have to lose? That is exactly what he's done by trading the last few pieces of his franchise's future in exchange for Cody Bellinger and Corey Knebel.

I was involved in trade talks for both players this chapter, but ultimately decided that it wasn't worth the cost to our future. Doyle doesn't have to worry about that, evidently. As I wrote here many times before, it doesn't matter what the Joplin Miners do or don't do. All that matters is how the Salem Cowtippers perform on the field. When you play .500 ball over three chapters, it doesn't matter what your competitors do. You aren't going to win the division, regardless. We simply need to win. It's as simple as that.

This game has a way of rewarding bad behavior. See Paul Marazita's three straight trophies to kick off this league, or John Duel's championship season before he bailed, or Anthony Peburn's string of division titles. Those infamous villains of BDBL past may soon be joined by another.

Chapter Four Review

Welp.

At this point, four chapters into the 2021 season, it is safe to assume that the Cowtippers team that we all witnessed in Chapter One was an anomaly. That team, with its outstanding pitching, solid hitting, and passable defense, was a mirage. The real Cowtippers are the ones that we've seen in the three chapters since then. We played .643 baseball in Chapter One. We have played .500 ball since then. We are Team Mediocrity.

This pathetic team, with its starting rotation that includes four all-stars, and a lineup that includes Rafael Devers, Ramon Laureano, Trea Turner, Shohei Ohtani, and numerous other hitters with an 800+ OPS split, has been the very definition of mediocre since the end of Chapter One.

When you are four games behind in the standings, there are two things your team must do in order to gain ground in the race: 1) beat bad teams, and 2) capitalize on the opportunity when the first-place team stumbles. We did neither this chapter. We went 4-5 against the last-place Ravenswood Infidels and Lake Norman Monsters, and we finished with the same shitty 13-11 record as the hapless Joplin Miners.

To put things into perspective, the North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs, who own the fourth-worst record in the BDBL, SWEPT the Monsters in Chapter Four. We barely managed a split.

We lost one game to the Monsters because Dylan Bundy -- who came into the game with an ERA over 7.00 -- held us to just three runs in six innings, while our "all-star", Sonny Gray, was whacked around for five runs on ten hits in four innings. We lost another game to Lake Norman when Framber Valdez and Mike Clevinger, pitching in emergency relief, blew a 4-0 lead.

We lost three out of four games to Ravenswood, including two games where the Infidels started a pitcher with a 7.00+ ERA. Stephen Strasburg, the starting pitcher for the OL all-star team, blew a save in that series. Rafael Devers went 0-for-12. We managed to hit just .215 against a pitching staff that owns the 8th-best ERA in the Ozzie League.

We lost a game to Los Altos when Sonny Gray allowed TWELVE runs in five innings. We scored five runs against the Undertakers' starter...and lost. Looking back, it is impossible to believe that Sonny Gray actually tossed a perfect game this year. It's been all downhill for him since then.

We lost a game to the Akron Ryche when we called on Max Scherzer, all-star, to hold a 4-2 lead in the ninth inning. The very first batter of the inning hit a weak grounder back to the mound. Scherzer snagged it, jogged over to first, and underhanded it to the first baseman...who somehow dropped it. This led to a three-run inning. Another walk-off, one-run, loss. Scherzer failed to even record an out in that inning.

The Cowtippers pitching staff posted an ERA of 2.44 in Chapter One. Our ERA this past chapter was 4.11. Folks, this is the same pitching staff! The only changes to that staff since Chapter One were the additions of Mike Clevinger, Sean Doolittle, and Brandon Workman. We added three quality pitchers and our pitching staff somehow got WORSE!

Our offense has posted a below-average OPS (.722) this season. We currently rank #18 out of 24 teams in that category. The Myrtle Beach Hitmen have a higher team OPS than Salem. So do the Darien Blue Wave. Robinson Chirinos, David Freese, Nick Madrigal, Jose Pirela, and Rafael Devers all own an OPS that is 100+ points lower than the one on the projection disk.

On the plus side (there's a plus side??), Devers' bat finally -- FINALLY! -- heated up in Chapter Four. He managed to hit .338/.424/.525 for the chapter, with three homers in 80 at-bats. Of course, most of that came from the bottom of the lineup, so he managed to drive in only 11 runs. Still, his performance was perhaps the only highlight of the chapter.

So...what now? We only have two chapters remaining to gain four games in the standings. Hell, we've overcome an eight-game deficit in only one chapter in the past. The difference is that we had a decent team back then. This is not a decent team. It should be, but clearly, it isn't.

Chapter Four Pickups

I had high hopes for all of the free agents we signed a chapter ago. Yet, of the five players we signed, we ended up releasing four of them this chapter. At least we got one useful piece of trade bait (Josh Harrison) out of that mess. This chapter, we picked up eight free agents, which may or may not be an all-time record. Here they are, in the order in which they were chosen:

1. Brandon Crawford

Crawford is not someone that we wanted or needed, but we would have been fools not to select him once all of our preferred free agents disappeared. At the ripe old age of 34, he is having a career year. He has already hit 15 home runs, which is the most he has hit since 2015, and is hitting .253/.339/.537 overall. We have nowhere to put him with Trea Turner firmly entrenched at shortstop, but perhaps we can move one of them over to second, given that our second baseman, Nick Madrigal, is now done for the year.

2. Jace Jung

Jace, brother of Josh, is arguably the top college freshman hitter in the nation. Batting in the heart of the Texas Tech lineup, Jung hit .337/.462/.697 this season, with 21 homers, and more walks (49) than strikeouts (45). He could very well be selected at the very top of the 2023 draft.

3. Thomas White

Normally, we would steer clear of any high school junior. We have made that mistake in the past, and it never ends well. Too much happens between the ages of sixteen and eighteen, and the players who are identified as being the best of their class in their junior year are often nowhere to be seen by the time they graduate. Especially pitchers. That said, you don't often read the type of glowing, gushing, praise that White has received from scouts and pundits alike. He is being hyped as the surefire number one overall pick in 2023, and this opinion seems to be universal. When someone like that comes along, it's worth the lottery ticket -- especially as the third pick in the draft.

4. Benny Montgomery

We didn't own a single player on our farm who is likely to be selected in the 2021 draft until we added Montgomery. Monty, an 18-year-old high school punk, is generally considered to have the best tools, across the board, in the draft. He hits for average and power, he has speed that some consider to be an "80" on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he has a plus arm in the outfield. The only knock on him is that he has a quirky swing that may get him into trouble at the pro level. He's a big kid who is often compared to Jayson Werth, which I suppose wouldn't be bad.

5. Ricardo Cabrera

It is very difficult to find information on the 2021 and 2022 Latin American prospects who used to be called "July 2" prospects. So much has changed over the past couple of years that scouting reports and rankings have all but disappeared. Given that, the scouting reports that I was able to find suggested that Cabrera could be one of the top Latin American players who will be signed this year. He has the most well-rounded tool set of the group, and is said to be the most advanced of that group. We'll see.

6. Paul Sewald

Sewald is a 31-year-old journeyman reliever with the Mariners. In a very small 14-inning sample, he has allowed 10 hits, no home runs, and eight walks, with 23 whiffs. He is a right-hander, but has limited lefties to a .125/.276/.167 batting line. Righties have hit .233/.303/.333 against him. Of course, one bad outing can change all of the above.

7. Phil Gosselin

Yet another old (32) journeyman who is performing well in a small sample. Gosselin is currently being used in a platoon around the infield, hitting primarily against left-handers. He has excelled in that role, hitting .433/.452/.633 in only 31 plate appearances. Like Sewald above, one bad streak could ruin Gosselin's numbers and make him entirely useless. A lot can happen in half a season.

8. Logan Tanner

Louisville catcher Henry Davis is generally considered to be a lock to be selected in the top five picks of the 2021 MLB draft. Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada is generally considered to be one of the top catchers in the 2022 draft, and was selected in the first round of our midseason draft. Tanner, a catcher with Mississippi State and a member of the 2022 draft class, is arguably better than both of them. He is a tremendous defensive catcher, and hit .284/.375/.528 in his sophomore season, with a team-leading 14 home runs, and a 33/38 BB/K ratio.

News and Notes

I know that this is most likely a delusion caused by my deep-seated love and bias for all things Cowtipper, but it sure seems that whenever we enter into trade talks with another team, the asking price for our players is ten times that of any other team in the league. I have often thought that it's better to have a shitty farm system than a good one when it comes to trade talking. If you offer your "best" prospect, who happens to be the 60th-best prospect in baseball, it gives the illusion of being a better offer than if they same player were offered by a team that also owns the 6th-, 10th-, and 25th-best prospects.

Maybe it's just me.

In any case, after a shit-ton of begging, negotiating, arm-twisting, and heavy-drinking, we somehow managed to pull off two more trades this past chapter. Both trades should have been completely unnecessary. Hell, ANY trade that we have made over the past two chapters should have been unnecessary, given the quality of our team on paper compared to the competition. Yet, here we are.

In this Bizarro World of BDBL 2021, where black is white and up is down, we actually need to make a trade for a third baseman who can hit, despite the presence of Rafael Devers on our roster. To that end, we added David Freese from the Ravenswood Infidels. Freese's projected stats are nowhere near as good as Devers', and yet Freese is currently posting an OPS that is 100 points -- ONE-HUNDRED POINTS!! -- higher than Devers.

It's a very small sample, and Freese is severely restricted in usage, but every bat helps. If Devers' bat finally begins to heat up, we can move Freese to first base, where every batter we've used in that position has struggled all season.

In exchange for Freese, who only has 180 PA's left in usage this season, we had to give up TWO players with 2022 value. Like I said above, it seems like any other team would have had to give up half of what we did, but it is what it is. Josh Harrison was our best -- and only -- decent free agent acquisition last chapter. Codi Heuer was one of the rare middle relief fliers that actually panned out. Neither one will be contributing to our team in 2022 because Rafael Fucking Devers can't hit a baseball.

We acquired yet another ace-caliber starting pitcher, Mike Clevinger, in our second trade. That gives us an insanely-good starting rotation of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Sonny Gray, Jon Gray, Mike Clevinger, and Framber Valdez. The fact that we're in second place, barely clinging to a .500 record, with that rotation is beyond stupid.

Even though Clevinger is a starter, we mostly acquired him to bolster our bullpen. The plan is to use those six pitchers as starters, but whichever two are not scheduled to start in any given series will be used out of the bullpen. In this year where quality relief pitching is completely non-existent, outside of Great Lakes' inexplicable success with no-name nobodies, it seems like this is our best/only option. There simply aren't any relief pitchers worth trading for in this market. Why not use our stellar starting rotation to its maximum benefit?

In exchange for Clevinger and two other guys, we made the very difficult decision to finally part ways with Spencer Howard. This past winter, we rejected one trade offer after another for Howard. He was ticketed to fill the void that will be left in our rotation when Strasburg and Sonny Gray become free agents at the end of this year. However, the more we watch him pitch, the less we're convinced that he will ever fill that void.

I absolutely HATE giving up someone like Howard for a three-chapter rental. We've made trades like this in the past, and they have always bitten us in the past. We get three chapters of use from the guy we acquired, we lose in the postseason, and in the end, we end up giving up years of production in exchange for nothing. But here we are again.

If not for our complete and utter lack of confidence in Howard, this trade wouldn't have happened. Increasingly, it was looking as though time were running out to get anything of value in exchange for him. Had we traded him last winter, or two years ago, we could have received much more in exchange. But we held on to him, hoping and praying for him to fulfill his ace potential. Now that we've finally traded him, he is practically guaranteed to become that ace in the very near future.

We won't worry about that future at this point. We have too much work to do in the present.

*** 

On that note, we've decided to shake up the lineup in the second half. Against left-handers, we will likely begin using Freese at third base. Against righties, we're moving Shohei Ohtani to right field, and use Freese and Aledmys Diaz at first. We're hoping that this not only boosts our offense, but improves our defense, as Ohtani's errors at first base have become a constant, nagging, issue.

With Suzuki behind the plate, and Kolten Wong at second, we should -- SHOULD -- score more runs in the second half than we did in the first. This game, however, seems to have a very stubborn mind of its own.

Chapter Three In Review

As I did last chapter, I will forgo our Chapter Review tradition of breaking this report into "good, bad, and ugly" sections, as there was very little good or bad to report in Chapter Three. At the end of Chapter Two, I asked on this page which version of the 2021 Cowtippers was the "real" version: Chapter One or Chapter Two?

Keep in mind that there is very little in common between those two versions. They are practically polar opposites -- to the point where it is difficult to understand how the same team, with the same players, using the same player cards, can perform so drastically differently from one chapter to the next. As we progress further into this ridiculous season, it appears that the Chapter Two version of the Cowtippers is the one that we should expect to see from this point forward.

On a similar note, it appears that the Rafael Devers that we saw in Chapter One, who got off to a blazing-hot start before cooling down a bit and finishing with a respectable .273/.316/.500 batting line, is a thing of the past. We must come to accept the fact that the version of Rafael Devers that plays in the BDBL is not the one we see in real life. Our version hit all of .189/.265/.356 in Chapter Three, which appears to be his "new normal."

For the season, Devers is hitting just .217/.272/.398. These numbers pale in comparison to the numbers on the projection disk: .292/.344/.530. How on earth those numbers somehow translate into this shitty performance, 80 games into the season, is truly a statistical marvel.

Prior to the start of this season, we ran six sims using the projection disk, with Devers playing in Salem's home ballpark in all 162 games each season. His median OPS for those six sims was .823 -- 52 points below his projection OPS (which is fairly in line with the league average, given that our ballpark favors pitchers.) The lowest OPS he posted in those six sims was .792. That lowest OPS is a whopping 122 points higher than his current OPS in the BDBL. How many seasons would we need to sim before we would see an OPS as low as .670? 1,000? 10,000? 1 million? We're likely witnessing a performance that is probably three standard deviations below the mean! That is as statistically-improbable as it gets, folks. We're talking lottery-winning odds.

So, now the question is: what do we do with a third baseman who is posting a .670 OPS, is basically useless overall, is a huge liability in the field, and completely useless against left-handers (.525 OPS)? We have dropped him down to #5 in the lineup against righties, and #6 against lefties, and he is still killing us. So, do we sit Rafael Fucking Devers? Who on earth would we play instead? Aledmys Diaz? Keep in mind: Devers is the guy that we thought would have a good chance to become the first Salem MVP since Sammy Sosa!

Of course, Devers is hardly alone. Christian Walker (-133), Yadiel Hernandez (-113), Kurt Suzuki (-106), Robinson Chirinos (-247), Jose Pirela (-124), and Nick Madrigal (-141) are all posting OPS's more than 100 points below their projected numbers. That's SEVEN players, folks. We could almost field an entire LINEUP of hitters that are under-performing their projections by 100+ points!

So...what do we do about this? Do we sacrifice our entire farm system to upgrade our lineup? Which first baseman could we get who hits better than Christian Walker's .804 projected OPS? Or Jose Pirela's .805 OPS against lefties? Or Yadiel Hernandez's .801 OPS against righties? If the projected numbers have zero correlation to their actual performance, then why bother upgrading?

We have a starting lineup comprised of five hitters with an .800+ OPS against lefties (with two others above .790), and five players with an .800+ OPS against righties...and we currently own a team OPS of .709, with a lefty/righty split of .684/.721.

Folks...there is ZERO correlation between the stats on the projection disk and our team's actual offensive performance. ZERO.

Moving on. Defensively, the Salem Cowtippers rank DEAD LAST in the BDBL in fielding percentage, with a league-high 70 errors. No other team has more than 54 errors as I type, so we lead the league by a VERY comfortable margin. The main culprits here are Devers and Shohei Ohtani. Devers has posted a career MLB fielding percentage of .931, but he's sitting at .907 in the BDBL, with 17 errors so far. Ohtani is forced to play out of position as a DH, so his 11 errors (.959%) at first base is at least understandable. Alex Colome has only had FOUR total chances in the field so far, and has committed THREE errors. Max Scherzer and Sonny Gray have committed four errors combined, and both carry a fielding percentage below .900. In total, nine of our team's seventy errors (13%) have been committed by our pitchers -- which has to be the league leader.

Last, but certainly not least, let's talk about the bullpen. 80 games into our 160-game season, it has become crystal clear that we cannot trust ANYONE on our roster to hold a three-, four-, or even five-run lead. Here are our runs allowed per inning, and where we rank among the BDBL:

1st inning: 45 (19)

2nd inning: 21 (1)

3rd inning: 29 (8)

4th inning: 38 (19)

5th inning: 27 (4)

6th inning: 27 (2)

7th inning: 33 (8)

8th inning: 51 (21)

9th inning: 35 (23)

With the weird exceptions of the first and fourth innings (poor performance against the top of the lineup!), we rank among the best in the league in preventing runs in the first six innings of the game. After that, we fall completely apart. We rank near dead-last in the eighth and ninth innings. It doesn't seem to matter who we use in those situations, either, as we have tried everything we can think of to avoid this -- including using our usual inning one-through-six starters out of the bullpen!

That's right. Our bullpen has been so bloody awful that we began using our four aces -- Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Sonny Gray, and Jon Gray -- in relief. These are four of the best pitchers in baseball. Surely, they can handle pitching an inning or two without allowing more than three runs....right? Wrong.

Max Scherzer (6 times), Stephen Strasburg (10), Sonny Gray (14), and Jon Gray (6) have been used out of the bullpen a whopping 36 times this year (only 8 fewer times than our relievers!), and have gone 3-9 in those games. Our two Cy Young candidates and two top-50 starters have lost NINE games in relief this season. NINE. That is roughly the same number of losses as all of the relievers on our team, combined.

Is there a parallel universe somewhere where this makes a lick of sense?

We finished Chapter Three with a 13-11 record. We barely outscored our opponents by nine runs. Over the past two chapters, we have gone 25-27 with a +13 runs differential. We've lost ten more games than the pathetic, flag-waving, waffling, Joplin "Cutting Our Losses" Miners over the past two chapters. Is there a light at the end of this dark tunnel, or is it time to reset expectations for the second half? At this point, it appears that the Salem Cowtippers you see now are what we are stuck with from this point forward.

* * * 

Let me close out this delightful chapter summary by showcasing some of the completely asinine fucking ways we lost games in Chapter Three:

• In a game against the Niagara Locks, we managed to rally to tie the score in the sixth inning, and our bullpen miraculously managed to hold the Locks at bay for four innings. Our offense couldn't make heads nor tails out of Matt Strahm (mediocre 3.92 ERA on the disk) or Carlos Estevez (4.18), who pitched four innings of one-hit shutout relief combined. Then we brought in Strasburg to start the bottom of the 11th inning and he served up a walk-off homer to the first and only batter (Xander Bogaerts) that he faced.
• We took a commanding 5-0 lead against the Carolina Saints, at home, in the first of our four-game set. We went to the bullpen early, having started the shaky Framber Valdez, and watched as they slowly allowed Carolina to creep back into the game while our offense took the rest of the day off. In the ninth, we held a slim 5-3 lead. We handed the ball to Sonny Gray...who proceeded to allow FIVE runs.
• We then lost Game Two of that series when Jon Gray somehow couldn't contain the awesome offensive firepower of Franklin Barreto (who is hitting .204/.290/.407 for Carolina this season.) His three-run blast -- made possible by yet another error by Rafael Devers -- put the game out of reach. The crushing blow in the first game, a three-run triple off of Sonny Gray, also came off the bat of Barreto.
• We lost a game to the lowly South Loop Furies when Jon Gray was tasked with holding a tied score in the bottom of the ninth. Instead, he allowed a leadoff double (where the runner advanced to third on yet another error by Ramon Laureano.) The next batter popped out to right field...where Yadiel Hernandez dropped the ball, and the winning run of the game happily scampered across the plate. Back-to-back errors led to a walk-off.
• We lost a completely idiotic game to the Allentown Ridgebacks in which not one, but TWO of our Cy Young candidate aces blew easy saves in the late innings. First, we brought Scherzer into the game in the eighth inning to protect a three-run lead. He proceeded to allow a two-run double and an RBI single to tie the game. Then, in the twelfth inning, Strasburg took the hill for his third inning of relief and allowed a three-run blast to Matt Olson with two outs. We managed to lose that game by only one run after Trea Turner hit a two-run homer with no outs in the bottom of the inning. But then someone named Grant Dayton struck out Aledmys Diaz, Kolten Wong, and Ramon Laureano in order. Whiff, whiff, whiff. Fucking Bugs Bunny.
• We ended up losing three of four to Allentown in that series after Corey Kluber carried a no-hitter into the fifth inning of Game Two, and someone named Andrew Kittredge carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning of Game Three. Rafael Devers failed to get a single hit in that entire series.

* * * 

So...where does that leave us? Frankly, I see no reason to expend any effort whatsoever on improving this team, given this team's apparent lack of effort to win regardless of who I put on the field. We have pursued a few trades, but the asking price is always much, much higher than we're willing to pay. Of course, the irony is that 2021 is the year when star players have been traded for pennies on the dollar. It's a buyer's market for everyone except us, it seems.

We will likely ride this team to the end, for better or -- likely -- worse. What a ridiculous season it has been in every conceivable way.

About That Bumgarner Trade...

When you join a league, any type of league, the underlying principle that makes the league worthwhile is the unstated assumption that each member of the league is actually trying to win. Once in a while, you will come across a league where some sort of collaboration or alliance between teams is beneficial to winning, but even then, the teams in that alliance benefit equally. Otherwise, what's the point?

If you are in a league where the ultimate prize is money, then the motivation to win is obvious. When there is no money involved, then there may be ulterior motives to winning that would explain a team's decision to decrease their chances of winning in order to increase another's. In the end, when there is no money on the line, then the league must rely on the honor system or the entire league would collapse.

All of which is to say...what the fuck was up with that Madison Bumgarner trade?

Imagine that you actually are trying to win, and you enter into a trade negotiation with another team in order to increase your odds of winning -- whether now or in the future. You offer your best trading chit, and your trading partner offers Players A, B, and C in return. You value Players A, B, and C so greatly that you feel that is a fair trade. At no point does it occur to you to make a counter-offer for Players X, Y, and Z instead. You prefer A, B, and C.

Now, imagine if your trading partner then says, "Oopsie! I forgot that I already traded A, B, and C! My bad! How about Players X, Y, and Z instead?"

We've already established the fact that you didn't want Players X, Y, and Z. Otherwise, you would have asked for them instead. If you had considered A, B, and C to be a fair market value for your player, then X, Y, and Z would -- by logical extension -- be LESS than fair.

Given that, why on earth would you accept a less-fair package of players in exchange for your player?

I have given some thought to that question, and these are the only answers I can come up with:

1) You are in a rush, and don't care much about getting fair value, so you simply take whatever is offered, because it's better than nothing.

2) You really don't care about your team, so in the end, it doesn't matter who you get in exchange for your best trading chit.

3) You were saved from making a foolish trade initially after realizing that it was Players X, Y, and Z that you really wanted all along.

There is only one other possible explanation: you simply wanted to screw someone else by trading his main competitor a good player, and in the end, it didn't matter who you got in return, as long as it screwed that guy.

Joplin has turned the 16th-best farm system in the BDBL into a division-leading team thanks to the generosity of two owners in the league who decided that the 50th, 75th, 92nd, and unranked prospects in baseball were worthy of their impact players.

Of course, that isn't the only reason Joplin is winning after "cutting their losses" a chapter ago. They're also winning thanks to some fortuitous performances from some incredibly-unlikely players. And they are in first-place only because our Cowtippers have collapsed so spectacularly. Joplin has been both incredibly lucky AND have created their own luck through trades. Sometimes it helps to be in an alliance, even when the league structure doesn't call for one.

Chapter Two in Review

Normally in this space, I would segment our chapter review into sections: good, bad, and ugly. This chapter, there was no good, or even bad, to be found. It was all ugly.

It's difficult to believe that the Cowtippers we saw in Chapter Two were the same Cowtippers from Chapter One. Nothing changed, except for the fact that we added a catcher who can actually hit. You'd think that would be a good thing. Instead, we went an abysmal 12-16 in Chapter Two and fell into second place in the McGowan Division.

Lucky for us, Jim Doyle ensured that we don't have to worry about losing this division. Had he not made his suicidal trade at the beginning of last chapter, I would need to seriously consider trading away some of the key pieces of our franchise's future in order to win this division. As it now stands, I don't need to do anything. We will win this division by default. Thank god for small blessings.

Ugliness #1: Our Offense

For the life of me, I cannot comprehend what the hell is wrong with our offense. We hit just .233/.293/.417 for the chapter and scored just 124 runs -- an average of just 4.4 runs per game. That sub-.300 OBP is especially mind-boggling. Our OBP for the season is now just .302. Out of all the hitters who have received regular playing time on our roster, only two -- Aledmys Diaz and Ramon Laureano -- have an OBP that is higher than the one on the disk.

Shohei Ohtani (.300), Rafael Devers (.275), Andrew Benintendi (.309), and Christian Walker (.256) all have an OBP that is over 30 points lower than the one on the disk. That's half our lineup! Devers, in particular, is posting stats that are nowhere near his projections:

BDBL: .228/.275/.416, 570/745 splits 

Proj: .292/.344/.530, 843/887 splits

This is the guy who is supposed to be our MVP. He is supposed to be, by far, the best hitter on our team. What are we supposed to do with him now? Move him down in the batting order? Bench him against lefties? Which is the real Rafael Devers? The one on the disk or this useless piece of shit?

Ugliness #2: Max Scherzer

The Chapter One Co-Pitcher of the Chapter, who was basically unhittable in Chapter One (0.81 ERA in 44+ IP, with only 29 hits allowed) crashed into a flaming fireball of turd in Chapter Two. Naturally, we expected some regression after that dazzling first chapter. But this?

1-4, 5.50 ERA, 36 IP, 37 H, 8 HR, 7 BB, 54 K

EIGHT home runs and four losses in one chapter. (Four of those homers came in his final start against Los Altos.) How is it even possible for the same pitcher, with the same player card, using the same exact software, to deliver two such completely polar-opposite performances one chapter apart?

Ugliness #3: Our Shitty Bullpen

Our bullpen has been so useless this entire season that we have begun using our best starting pitchers as relievers. Even THAT backfired in Chapter Two.

We lost a game to the Las Vegas Flamingos in which we handed a 6-5 lead to Sonny Gray in the ninth inning. He struck out the first two batters he faced. Then, one out away from victory, he proceeded to give up three straight hits to three complete bums: Kevin Cron, Jason Kipnis, and someone named T.Ward. Ward's double brought home both Cron and Kipnis for the walk-off win.

We lost a game to Lake Norman when Shohei Ohtani and Sam Delaplane combined to cough up four runs in the ninth inning, blowing a 2-0 game wide open.

We lost a game to Los Altos when we handed a 6-5 lead over to Aaron Bummer, who proceeded to live up to his name by allowing a pair of singles and a three-run homer to pinch hitter Mac Williamson in the eighth inning.

We lost a game to Joplin in the twelfth inning when Scherzer, pitching his fourth inning of relief, allowed a solo home run to Carlos Santana (who, thankfully, we won't have to see anymore!) We could have won that game if only the Salem offense had been able to score a single run off of Matt Barnes or Rubby de la Rosa -- two right-handed specialists facing a lefty-heavy lineup.

We lost yet another game to Joplin when "righty-specialist" David Bednar served up a two-run homer to righty Josh Donaldson (another one we won't have to worry about anymore), and then Sam Delaplane choked up another solo homer to Santana in the ninth. We ended up losing that game by one run, wasting a brilliant effort by Jon Gray.

We somehow managed to score only one run against someone named Adrian Houser in a loss to Darien. We had a chance to win that game when we tied the score in the top of the ninth, but once again, our bullpen failed. Once again, it was Sonny Gray, pitching in relief, who stood on the mound while the opposing team celebrated another walk-off win.

We couldn't even beat the bad teams in Chapter Two. We managed a split against the last-place North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs thanks to yet another failure by yet another "ace" starting pitcher pitching in relief. In the second game of that series, Stephen Strasburg served up a solo homer to Ian Happ in the sixth inning, which became the deciding run in that one-run loss.

We played nine games in Chapter Two that were decided by one run, and went 2-7 in those games. Absolutely pathetic.

+++

Thankfully, help is on the way, both internally and externally. Internally, we will be adding Kolten Wong to our lineup and Sean Doolittle to our bullpen. Doolittle has posted a 2.89 ERA in 18+ innings for the Ravenswood Infidels. We're not sure where he will fit in as a third left-hander in our bullpen, but that's a good problem to have. Wong (.258/.346/.472) will be replacing the mostly-useless Nick Madrigal (.250/.305/.278) at second base. It would be nice if their 40-point differential in OBP would actually translate to the game play. We will, however, miss Jeimer Candelario's bat (.267/.346/.422) more than we anticipated when we made that trade at the start of the chapter.

Externally, of course, we look forward to competing against a severely-hobbled Joplin Miners roster after the trades of Josh Donaldson, Carlos Santana, and Clayton Kershaw. Miners GM Jim Doyle hilariously scrambled to fill those holes once he realized the blunder he had made, but that isn't likely to make much of a difference. Khris Davis (.280/.330/.611, with 18 home runs) was having a phenomenal year for the Infidels prior to his trade. He should fill in nicely for Santana (.286/.382/.509), but that still leaves a gaping hole in the lineup.

Likewise, there is now a gaping hole in the starting rotation following the departure of Kershaw (6-3, 3.07 ERA in 85 IP.) The Infidels came to the rescue there as well, filling that void with James Paxton (3-4, 4.85 ERA in 55+ IP). Paxton is no Kershaw, however, and his weaknesses are easily-exploitable.

Regardless of those changes, we should once again expect some regression, but in the opposite direction. If our team is not nearly as good as we were in Chapter One, but not nearly as bad as we were in Chapter Two, then the "true" talent level of our ballclub is somewhere just north of .500. In this newly-altered division race, that should be enough.

Chapter Two Acquisitions + Bonus Update

We added several players to our roster prior to the Chapter Two deadline that we hope will add some value to our team this year and next.

First, we made a deal with our division rivals, the Darien Blue Wave, to acquire a much-needed catcher who can actually hit. As noted in my Chapter One Review, our catching tandem of Christian Vazquez and Robinson Chirinos somehow managed to hit .158/.200/.211 and .125/.227/.214, respectively. They barely outperformed the pitchers on our staff, who hit .175/.217/.193!

In our deal with Darien, we added Kurt Suzuki, who is among the best offensive catchers in the league, albeit in very short usage. He has yet to hit in the BDBL this season (all the better for us), but hit .268/.326/.453 overall on the disk, with 12 homers in only 276 AB's. Along with Suzuki, we also added Zac Lowther (since released) and Ka'ai Tom, a Rule 5 guy who is battling for a fourth-outfielder job in Oakland.

In exchange, we traded three pitchers that we believe will be valuable bullpen pieces in our 2022 season: Antoine Kelly, Matt Foster, and Jonathan Hernandez.

We also added three players as free agents:

Ryan Tepera: He developed a cutter in 2020 that led to the third-best contact rate in all of baseball last season, behind only NL ROY Devin Williams and Edwin Diaz. He doesn't always know where the pitch is going once it leaves his hand, but a weapon like that can be extremely valuable if used properly.

LaMonte Wade: The San Francisco Giants seem to have a knack for finding "Quad-A" guys -- older prospects who never got a chance at the MLB level, but excel once given that chance. Guys like Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano, and Alex Dickerson are their most recent success stories. Wade, battling for an Opening Day center field position as I type, could be next in line.

Jeffrey Springs: Like the Giants above, the Tampa Bay Rays seem to have a knack for finding Quad-A guys as well, only on the pitching side. Springs, like Tepera, developed a nasty pitch in 2020. His changeup was one of the least hard-hit pitches in baseball last year (second only to Williams'). If he can harness that pitch as well as Williams did, we'll have a steal on our hands.

BONUS:

Before I could even sit down to write this piece, we pulled the trigger on our first Chapter Three trade, adding Kolten Wong and Sean Doolittle from the Ravenswood Infidels at the expense of Jeimer Candelario, Jose De Leon, and Tommy La Stella. Wong gives us another bat against righties that should be a major upgrade over Nick Madrigal. Doolittle shuts down left-handed batting, and will be very useful for us in that role.

Neither of the two trades we made are earth-shattering deals that will lead to another BDBL championship. Making such a deal would require sacrifices that we simply aren't willing to make. We had a very good chance to add Chris Sale this past chapter. We were also given a tempting offer to add Jacob deGrom to our rotation. Either trade would have given us the greatest starting rotation this league has ever seen, but neither trade would have guaranteed another trophy -- which no trade ever could.

We have committed to keeping our core of top prospects (Spencer Howard, Austin Martin, Asa Lacy, and Adley Rutschman) intact. We would also prefer to keep Madrigal and Connor Priellip on the roster as well. That leaves very little in terms of trade bait. We are very happy to have made the upgrades we did without having to sacrifice any of the players just named.

As I type, the league is still reeling from the Joplin Miners' latest trade, in which Jim Doyle went absolutely insane and traded his entire team away in exchange for future considerations. This trade effectively ends the McGowan Division race -- before we have even played a single Chapter Two game! We expected that race to be tightly-contested this season. Hell, the Miners led the league's polling in our division, making us the underdogs. That race is now over.

Chapter One in Review

Our first chapter is now in the books. We ended up with a respectable record of 18-10, which puts us five games ahead of the Joplin Miners in the McGowan Division. The story of our chapter is pitching. If our entire pitching staff were a single pitcher, we'd be looking at a surefire Cy Young winner: 258+ IP, 195 H, 21 HR, 86 BB, 308 K, 2.44 ERA. By the time the other teams catch up in terms of games played, that 2.44 ERA will likely obliterate the next-best team ERA in the BDBL. Unless something strange happens, we will likely end up with the OL's co-Pitchers of the Chapter.

Our offense was a lot less impressive. We hit just .247/.310/.400 as a team. Our OBP and slugging are both below the OL average, as of this writing. Our runs per game of 4.3 is also below the league average of 4.5.

The Good

We could not have asked for better starting pitching in Chapter One. It is difficult to choose which pitcher had the better chapter: Stephen Strasburg (4-0, 0.88 ERA in 41 IP) or Max Scherzer (4-2, 0.81 ERA in 44+ IP). Jon Gray (1-1, 1.72 in 31+) and Sonny Gray (3-0, 1.95 in 37, with 3 SV) were beyond excellent as well. And Framber Valdez (1-0, 1.59 in 22+) served as the best #5 starter in the BDBL, bar none.

In the bullpen, Aaron Bummer (1.38 ERA in 13 IP, 3 SV) and Alex Colome (2.08 ERA in 8+, 3 SV) got the job done.

The part-time backups, Aledmys Diaz (.345/.418/.466 in 58 AB) and Nick Senzel (.292/.320/.521 in 48) enjoyed the most impressive offensive chapter.

Andrew Benintendi (.288/.354/.479), Trea Turner (.280/.344/.415), Rafael Devers (.273/.316/.500), and Yadiel Hernandez (.262/.380/.477) also deserve an attaboy.

The Bad

Christian Walker (.213/.253/.307) has been just about useless, and is most likely the worst-hitting first baseman in the league.

Shohei Ohtani (.212/.281/.442) has been mostly useless, and is such a liability in the field that his bat hasn't come close to compensating for his lack of glove.

Jose Pirela (.209/.292/.326) began the season on fire, but cooled to zero.

The Ugly

Spencer Howard's BDBL debut: 2 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 3 HR. 'Nuff said.

Hoby Milner (9.45 ERA in 6+ IP), Sam Tuivagina (7.20 in 5), and David Bednar (6.57 in 12+) were godawful embarrassments. Bednar was particularly disappointing, given that he was supposed to be our closer this year. Incredibly enough, those three combined to blow only one save and lost only two games.

Our catching tandem of Christian Vazquez (.158/.200/.211) and Robinson Chirinos (.125/.227/.214) has been so godawful that it's like having two pitchers in our lineup at all times.

2021 Salem Farm Report

Several years ago I made the bold executive decision to stop trading away all of our best farm players for immediate gain. I selected a core group of players (Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, Trea Turner, and Shohei Ohtani) that I stubbornly refused to trade under any circumstances and no matter how tempting the trade offers would be. I then freely traded the "B Group" of prospects from those farm teams in exchange for immediate gain.

Unfortunately for the Cowtippers franchise, it appears that the "B Group" (Wander F'ing Franco, Aaron Judge, and Yordan Alvarez, among others) was better than that "A Group."

Since then, I have added a few more players to the "untouchables" list: Adley Rutschman, Asa Lacy, Austin Martin, and Spencer Howard. Hopefully, those four will be at least as productive as the three that we decided were disposable.

In years past, I have expended way too much effort to provide a comprehensive summary of each of our team's top ten prospects on this page. Thanks to an entire year lost to COVID, there is nothing new to report beyond what was written here a year ago. If you want the details, simply scroll through the posts until you come to last year's entry. For now, this will have to suffice:

Salem's Top Ten Prospects

1. Adley Rutschman, c
Born: February 6, 1998 (age 22). B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 208. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2018.

The Scoop: Rutschman has been called a "generational talent" by more than one pundit over the years. He is currently ranked as the #2 prospect in baseball (behind former 'Tipper prospect Franco) by Baseball America and MLB.com. He hits for both average and power, has an excellent glove and arm behind the plate, and hits from both sides of the plate. When he is finally given the chance to play in MLB, he will instantly become one of our best hitters in the heart of our lineup.

2. Austin Martin, 3b/ss/cf

Born: March 23, 1999 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 170. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #1), 2019.

The Scoop: The #5 overall pick in last year's MLB draft, Martin's bat is already Major League-ready. The only question is where he lands defensively. He played most of his college career at third base, but also spent some time at second base, shortstop, and center field. He will hit for a high average, with at least average power, regardless of where he ends up. If anyone is ever allowed to play baseball again, he will likely start the 2021 season at the High-A level, but I would be surprised if he lasts more than a month before his first promotion.

3. Asa Lacy, p
Born: June 2, 1999 (age 22). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 214. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #2), 2019.

The Scoop: Lacy was the fourth overall pick in last year's MLB draft. He is a hard-throwing left-hander with 55-60 grades across the board. Given his stuff, his college track record, and the amount of money the Kansas City Royals spent on him, I would be shocked if he doesn't move quickly up the organizational ladder. A 2021 cup of coffee would not be surprising.

4. Nick Madrigal, 2b
Born: March 5, 1997 (age 23.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 5-7. Wt: 165. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2017.

The Scoop: He will never hit for power, but Madrigal brings so many other assets to the game that it's impossible to imagine a scenario where he isn't a major contributor for the next several years. He strikes out so rarely that few other players in baseball can match his K-rate. He plays exceptional defense. He hits for a high average. He gets on base. He steals bases. Unlike most of the other players on this list, he actually played baseball in 2020, and hit .340 with a .376 OBP in a 109-PA cup of coffee in the big leagues. In other words: he is already contributing. He should be fun to watch in 2021!

5. Spencer Howard, p
Born: July 28, 1996 (age 24). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 205. Acquired: 3rd round, 2019 winter farm draft.

The Scoop: With Stephen Strasburg and Sonny Gray leaving us for free agency at the end of this season, we desperately need fresh new arms to take their place. That makes Howard the most important player on this list from the Salem Cowtippers' perspective. If he does not succeed as well as we hope, our team could be in big trouble. He stumbled a bit in his MLB debut (24+ IP, 5.92 ERA), but also ran into some bad luck and nagging injuries. We need him to be healthy and productive in 2021. If he is, he could be our ace.

6. Connor Prielipp, p
Born: January 10, 2001 (age 20). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 205. Acquired: 1st round, 2021 winter farm draft.

The Scoop: With most pundits in agreement that the MLB Class of 2021 is relatively weak compared to other classes, and 2022 looks to be a very strong class, we decided to go after Class of '22 prospect Prielipp with our #1 pick of this winter's draft. He won Freshman of the Year honors last year after a very abbreviated season in which he didn't allow a single run through four starts (21 innings), with six walks and 35 strikeouts. He is currently ranked among the top ten prospects in the '22 draft class by most pundits, and would be a high first-round pick if the draft were held today. Of course, a lot can (and does) happen in the 18+ months prior to a draft. For now, we're hoping that we caught lightning in a bottle.

7. J.T. Ginn, p
Born: May 20, 1999 (age 21). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 192. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2019.

The Scoop: Ginn lost all but three innings of his 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery. Assuming he makes a full recovery, we're looking at a pitcher who dominated as a college freshman, who throws a 99-mph sinker and vicious slider. If he can develop the change-up that he was working on prior to his injury, he could be a frontline starter. If he can't, he can be a dominant reliever. Either way, we look forward to watching his development over the coming year.

8. Antoine Kelly, p
Born: December 5,1999 (age 21). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-6. Wt: 205. Acquired: 3rd round, 2021 winter farm draft.

The Scoop: Kelly posted some crazy Nintendo numbers (19.1 K/9!) in junior college, and was drafted in the second round by Milwaukee in 2019. He continued to rack up strikeouts (not nearly to the same extent!) in his first professional season, and was consistently named as the most exciting and electric prospect at the alternative training site this past summer. He could be poised for a huge breakout in 2021.

9. Carmen Mlodzinski, p
Born: February 19,1999 (age 21). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 231. Acquired: 5th round, 2020 winter farm draft.

The Scoop: Mlodzinski has flown under the radar, thanks to a broken foot that limited him to just three starts in 2019, combined with the loss of nearly the entire 2020 season due to the pandemic. He landed on our radar thanks to his 2019 summer performance in the Cape League, where he ranked among the very top prospects. He could either break out in a big way in 2021 or he could become one of the first players we release. There is no in-between.

10. Jason Vosler, 1b/3b
Born: September 6, 1993 (age 27). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 205. Acquired: Trade, winter, 2021.

The Scoop: We are always late to the game when it comes to those "Quad-A" players who come out of nowhere to become major league impact players. By the time we notice guys like Luke Voit, Max Muncy, Mike Yastrzemski, and others like them, it's too late. We're hoping to catch this lightning in a bottle before it strikes. Vosler fits the same description as those others: 27 years old, career minor leaguer, terrific stats in Triple-A, big-time raw power, but no role in the major leagues. That last part changed when Vosler was signed by the San Francisco Giants. The opportunity for him to shine is now here. Let's see what he does with it.