Looking Ahead to 2025

I almost titled this post "Looking Forward to 2025," but there is very little to look forward to! With the 2024 MLB season now in the books, we can look ahead to 2025. My god. What a mess this team is. I knew it was bad, but I didn't realize the scale of it until I just sat down and took a good look at it. Even with Shohei Ohtani's historic season, the 2025 Florida Mulligans are a hot mess.

Adley Rutschman, Lane Thomas, Rafael Devers, Paul DeJong, and Wyatt Langford are all platoon players now. Rutschman (.219/.290/.342), Langford (.255/.316/.386), and Thomas (.214/.279/.367) are completely useless against right-handers. Devers (.240/.304/.382) and DeJong (.198/.260/.360) are useless pieces of crap against lefties.

This means that we have four holes in our lineup to fill against lefties and four against righties. We have no first baseman, and no second baseman (thanks to Davis Scheider's epic collapse this season), with roughly $28.8 million to spend this winter.

I was so happy with our starting rotation in April that I wrote about it here, patting myself on the back for rebuilding our entire rotation from nothing. I acquired four young pitchers with track records of success, plus one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, plus one young pitcher (JP Sears) who carried over from last year's roster. With SIX good, quality, young pitchers with fantastic resumes, I figured at least one or two of them would become aces in our 2025 rotation. Instead, all six failed miserably.

Our rotation now consists of:

1. Kutter Crawford: 184 IP, 155 H, 34 HR, 51 BB, 175 K, 675/732
2. MacKenzie Gore: 166 IP, 171 H, 15 HR, 65 BB, 181 K, 834/704
3. JP Sears: 181 IP, 172 H, 28 HR, 49 BB, 137 K, 648/777
4. Casey Mize: 102 IP, 121 H, 11 HR, 29 BB, 78 K, 749/796

That's it. They all suck. They all give up WAAAAAY too many home runs. They all have problematic splits. None of them should be in any rotation. And yet, that's all we have.

Our bullpen is similarly filled with problems:

Chad Green: 53 IP, 759/556
Calvin Faucher: 54 IP, 747/633
Ian Hamilton: 38 IP, 765/669
Matt Strahm: 63 IP, 607/446
Yuki Matsui: 63 IP, 673/659
Justin Slaten: 55 IP, 549/600

We're screwed.

Chapter Six Diary

September 29:

We managed to stay in the race by taking three of four from the Undertakers -- all by the skin of our teeth. If not for some incredibly bad luck and horrendous clutch hitting on the Los Altos side, we could have easily been swept.

In Game One, Shohei Ohtani was limited to four innings, so we had to jump out to an early lead to have a fighting chance. Fortunately, we did just that, jumping all over Max Scherzer for three runs in the first three innings, and then a fourth in the sixth inning.

After Ohtani left, I was forced to somehow scrap together the bare bones of what's left of our bullpen, just to get through the game. Clinging to a two-run lead heading into the bottom of the ninth, Ian Hamilton allowed the first two batters to reach base on singles. I then handed the ball to Dauri Moreta, who walked the bases full. A sac fly made it a one-run game. Then, with the tying run standing 90 feet away, Moreta whiffed Cedanne Rafaela for a HUGE out. Parker Meadows then flew out to end the game.

After that nail-biter, our offense then ran into a buzzsaw in Game Two, in the form of Bailey Ober, of all people. Los Altos scored a first inning run, and that 1-0 score stood for six innings, as our offense couldn't get anything going against Ober. Finally, once Ober left the game in the seventh, we managed to get on the board thanks to Jason Heyward's two-run double.

In the bottom of the eighth, Jesse Chavez loaded the bases with one out. Ian Hamilton then came into the game and whiffed the only two batters he faced. We eventually won by a score of 3-1.

Our Game Three and Game Four starters were MacKenzie Gore and JP Sears, so we absolutely had to win those first two games to stay in the race. Gore was his usual awful self in Game Three, allowing three runs on eight hits and two walks in less than four innings before I couldn't take it anymore and yanked him out of there.

I was very concerned about facing Dustin May, given his dominant numbers, but surprisingly we managed to touch him up for four runs in four innings (eight hits, four walks.) For the third game in a row, our beleaguered bullpen managed to hold that lead. We won by a score of 5-3.

JP Sears gives up a lot of home runs. I mean A LOT. Game Four was no different. He managed to serve up two homers in only five innings, allowing four runs in the process. I used my best lineup in this game, knowing that we would need to score a lot of runs to make up for Sears' awfulness. It didn't work. We scored just two runs on six hits. Final score: 7-2.

This series win puts us one game behind Flagstaff. Up next is South Carolina. Then, we face the big boys. I have managed usage as best I can. Hopefully it's enough.

September 25:

Thankfully, we swept the West Chester Blooms last night. Anything less than a sweep would have been catastrophic. Unfortunately, it doesn't matter, because the Flagstaff Peaks somehow swept the Akron Ryche yesterday morning. The Ryche are on pace to win 99 games this year and yet the Peaks trounced them like a steamroller.

It's beginning to feel very much like the Peaks are the Team of Destiny in 2024. I had this same exact feeling about the Ryche in 2022 and that feeling proved to be prescient. We are now 8-4 on this chapter, and yet it's only the second-best record in the division. Flagstaff has won eleven out of twelve. Absolutely insane.

It's beyond disheartening to know that we will finish this season with one of our best records in franchise history...and we'll finish in third place. Current division leaders Akron, Los Altos, South Philly, and Chicago would be last-place teams in the McGowan Division. What a waste of a tremendous season.

September 24:

When it comes to the BDBL, I tend to focus on the negative. Even when I win three of four in a series, I obsess over that one loss. Such is the case with my series against Bear Country last night. Three of the four games were won rather easily: 11-3, 10-3, and 10-5. But that one goddamn game, Game Three, is the one that irritates me.

Two-out rallies piss me off, and that game featured one of those in the second inning. Walk, single, single. Like being poked on the forehead over and over again. Piddly little shit. Irritating.

We were losing 4-0 to Freddy Peralta, a guy who has been very hittable all season long. We clawed our way back into the game with one run in the sixth, one in the seventh, and one in the eighth. Down by just one run in the ninth, the bottom three hitters in our lineup couldn't get on base. Not one of them. 4-3 loss.

We've now lost three one-run games this chapter, and we've only played eight games. That stings. We're now two games behind Flagstaff, and seven behind Darien. We have played .643 baseball this year and it isn't good enough. What a fucking waste.

September 17:

It always sucks to lose three out of four. It sucks even worse to lose three out of four at home. And it sucks ten times as much to lose three out of four to a team that is incredible beatable. That is exactly how our final chapter began last night.

Shohei Ohtani is supposed to be our ace. Instead, he has been the most inconsistent pitcher on our staff all season long. You never know which version of Ohtani you'll get when he takes the hill. He has now made 22 starts for us this season. He has allowed two or fewer runs in thirteen of those starts, and he has allowed six or more runs in five starts. Last night was one of the latter.

It's bad enough that he allowed nine runs (eight earned) in six innings, but what really irritates me is that six of those runs were scored in the same inning -- all with two outs. And it happened against the bottom half of a lineup that is below league average in each of the three triple-slashes.

That lineup features Xavier Edwards in the leadoff spot. Edwards owns a sub-.300 OBP for the season (.333 vs. RH). This is their leadoff hitter. Their table-setter. Seriously. Shea Langeliers is the cleanup hitter. He is hitting .222/.291/.433 this season. Seriously. I'm not making this up. Drew Waters (.248/.292/.431) offers "protection" for Langeliers in the #5 spot. And it only gets worse from there.

Shohei Ohtani, one of the best pitchers in the game, coughed up SIX runs -- all with two outs -- against Erika Baddoo, someone named Triolo, Josh Lowe, Edwards, Jorge Soler, Francisco Lindor, and Langeliers.

Five straight batters reached base, all with two outs: walk, single, single, walk, double, single.

Fucking ridiculous. And that was just Game One.

In Game Two, we faced Dane Dunning. Dane Dunning, with the lifetime 4.39 ERA. Mister Mediocrity. Our lineup is filled with top-50 hitters: Ohtani, Rafael Devers, Bryan Reynolds, Adley Rutschman, Brandon Belt, Wilmer Flores, etc. We managed all of SIX hits against Dane Fucking Dunning. One run. Lost by a score of 2-1 to Dane Fucking Dunning.

Game Three required a miracle come-from-behind walk-off win because Kutter Crawford couldn't hold the mighty Furies offense to fewer than six runs. In a preview of what's to come in 2025, he allowed THREE home runs to this wretched offense. One of them was hit by Mike Moustakas, if you can believe it. I thought that guy died about a decade ago.

Then, just to rub some more salt into the wound, we lost yet another one-run game in Game Four. Alex Cobb -- Alex Fucking Cobb -- blanked our offense for seven innings. Not a single run. Just three hits. Against Alex Fucking Cobb.

We finally scored two in the eighth and two more in the ninth, but it wasn't enough because the mighty Furies once against brought out their big lumber, stroking two homers off of JP Sears.

Not only did we lose three of four, but I used my "A" lineups in all four games, wasting the usage of the players we'll need to beat the better teams in this league. Meanwhile, Bart didn't even play his best hitter (Wander F'ing Franco) in three of those games. He didn't need to. Tom Murphy (.571/.625/1.143), Erika Baddoo (.333/.333/1.000), Someone Named Triolo (.500/.750/.500), and Drew Waters (.231/.375/.769) picked up the slack.

What a stupid fucking game.

Chapter Five Recap

We started Chapter Five by losing a series to Darien, allowing them to sneak to the top of the division for the first time this year. We even managed to lose two games to left-handed starters after having added three lefty-mashing bats to our lineup at the end of Chapter Four.

We split against Flagstaff, losing both games in extra innings. We also split a series against last-place Ravenswood's robot manager. Thankfully, we managed to take three of four from Lake Norman, Cleveland, and Charlotte, and swept the West Chester Blooms. That put us at 18-10 for the chapter.

For now, we own sole possession of first place. Flagstaff's chapter is over, after they went 20-8 for the chapter. Darien still has sixteen games left to play. If they go just 9-7 in those 16 games, they will catch us. Given that four of those games are against West Chester, that seems like a lock.

We continued to knock the cover off the ball in Chapter Five, batting .295/.364/.513 as a team and averaging an even six runs per game. But I made a major, major, error by over-using Aaron Hicks. As a result, if we should make it to the Division Series, it will be without Hicks and his .337/.417/.483 bat against lefties.

Our Chapter Five pitching was a mixed bag. Michael Lorenzen, of all people, will probably be the OL Pitcher of the Chapter. He went a perfect 5-0 in five starts, with a 0.50 ERA. He pitched a complete-game gem (3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K) against Darien, and dominated Flagstaff (8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K) as well. On the other end of the spectrum, JP Sears posted an ugly 7.36 ERA in three games (14+ IP.) And our newest "closer," Craig Kimbrel, was lit up like a Christmas tree: 9 IP, 7 H, 11 R, 8 BB, 16 K, 3 HR.)

Our usage is going to be extremely tight down the stretch -- especially in the bullpen -- so I'd like to get the Flagstaff and Darien series done first in Chapter Six. Of course, people usually like to save those big series for last, so we'll see how that goes.

Chapter Four Recap

Four chapters are now in the book forever, and your Florida Mulligans are still in first place! Who could have predicted such a crazy, nutty season? Certainly not me. After last year, I had become so jaded, I believed it didn't matter how many quality players you put on the field. This game has a mind of its own and your fate is already sealed regardless of what you do.

Last year, nearly every player on our roster under-performed. We choked in clutch situations. We rolled over dead when our backs were against the wall. In the end, despite preseason predictions of postseason success, we didn't even make the playoffs cut.

This season has been the polar-opposite. Most of our players are performing at least as well as their MLB numbers suggest they should. We have not only performed well in the clutch, but we may have set a franchise record for come-from-behind wins (or at least it seems that way.) And we're coming through in big situations against tough teams.

Our Chapter Four schedule was so brutal, I assumed we'd be trailing far behind by now. Of our six opponents this past chapter, five of them have winning records. Three of the six are currently in first place in their divisions. Yet, we finished this chapter with an impressive 15-9 record. With the Darien Blue Wave going a ridiculous 18-6, that means we head into the final two chapters tied for first place in the McGowan Division.

Four of our fifteen wins happened when we were trailing after seven innings. We also won one game in which we were tied after seven, and two extra-inning games. We won fifteen games despite losing Shohei Ohtani in the early innings of Game One in two different series!

We hit .267/.338/.489 as a team. Ohtani (.302/.418/.491), Adley Rutschman (.304/.372/.510), Rafael Devers (.313/.360/.566), Jason Heyward (.377/.411/.755), and Aaron Hicks (.274/.383/.450) all knocked the cover off the ball.

On the pitching side, we posted a respectable 4.13 team ERA, with fewer hits allowed than innings pitched. Michael Lorenzen (2-0, 1.25 in 21+ IP) was shockingly good. Ohtani (2-0, 1.86 in 19+) turned his abysmal pitching season around somewhat. Newcomer Nate Eovaldi (1-0, 2.92 in 24+) fit right in.

Our schedule doesn't get any easier. Next chapter, we'll face three -- count 'em, three -- teams sporting winning percentages of .630 or better. Two of those teams are in our division! We get to face the Flagstaff Peaks on friendly turf for four games, but then we have to travel to the armpit of the BDBL, Darien, for four. Those eight games could very well decide how this season ends for all three teams.

Our usage situation is very alarming at the moment, so to help remedy that, I made a couple of trades. First, I sent Seth Hernandez and Fernando Cruz to West Chester for Stone Garrett and Jorge Mateo. Garrett can fill in for Heyward against righties, and gives us another strong bat in the outfield against lefties (likely taking Bryan Reynolds' spot.) Mateo gives us another decent bat against lefties, and helps solve our usage problem at shortstop.

I made another trade with Kansas, sending Jorge Alcala their way in exchange for Garrett Cooper. He will help ease the usage burden on Wilmer Flores, who is currently at 77% of his MLB PA's. Wilmer hasn't done much against lefties this season (.190/.250/.444, vs. .303/.359/.527 in MLB), so maybe this will be an upgrade.

We still have some holes that would be nice to fill, but nothing pressing. We still have 2.9 to play with under the WAR cap, which is enough to haul in another good bat, or maybe another decent bullpen arm. Next weekend in Arlington will present plenty of opportunities for trade talk. We'll see what happens. If it's nothing, I'm comfortable riding it out with the team we have.

Chapter Three Recap

Surprise, surprise! Thanks to our 17-7 record in Chapter Three, we are now tied with the Flagstaff Peaks atop the McGowan Division at the all-star break. We share the best record (53-27, .663) in the BDBL. If the Lake Norman Monsters win all eight of their remaining games this chapter, then they will own the best record in the BDBL. Otherwise, it's all ours.

It's been a wild season. We began this season with a 16-12 record in Chapter One, which was five games behind the leader (Flagstaff) at that time. Since then, we own the best record (37-15, .712) in the BDBL. We traded Trea Turner and Jon Gray and somehow became better.

This past chapter, we faced such a tough schedule that I assumed we would be in third-place at this point. Instead, we took three out of four from the first-place Chicago Black Sox, three of four from the first-place Highland Freedom, three of four from the heavily-favored Darien Blue Wave, and split with the Peaks after losing the first two games of that series.

We head into the all-star break with several players who should be in the starting lineup of that game. Shohei Ohtani (.348/.429/.741, 28 HR, 98.2 RC) is well on his way to winning his second OL MVP award. Adley Rutschman (.319/.399/.495), Bryan Reynolds (.264/.334/.502), Brandon Belt (.264/.369/.563), Wilmer Flores (.275/.355/.480), and Jason Heyward (.324/.383/.571) all deserve consideration.

On the mound, Kutter Crawford (8-2, 3.03 ERA in 77+ IP) deserves a spot on the all-star roster, as does Dauri Moreta (6-0, 1.89 in 38). Our pitching has not been great, but it's been good enough to allow our offense to carry them. As I type, we own the best OPS (.850) in the BDBL, with the highest OBP (.353) and Slugging % (.497), and the most home runs (139).

Our pitching is merely good-enough. We rank 9th in the BDBL in ERA (4.37), 9th in CERA (4.19), and 9th in RCERA (4.27).

I have no idea how we got here, and I certainly don't know where we're going, but it sure has been a fun ride so far.

Chapter Two Recap

Way, way, back in BDBL history, there was an owner named Nic Weiss. Nic was a young college kid at the time, and I believe he was studying economics. He liked to apply the theories and principles he was learning at that time toward his experience as GM in the BDBL. In particular, he enjoyed using a term called "arbitrage."

The Wikipedia definition of arbitrage is: "the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets – striking a combination of matching deals to capitalise on the difference, the profit being the difference between the market prices at which the unit is traded."

I'm not entirely sure what that means, but I think I may have committed some arbitrage this past chapter.

The Florida Mulligans followed up an incredibly irritating first chapter (16-12) with an absolutely mind-blowing 20-8 record in Chapter Two. We outscored our opponents by 52 runs, which is second only to the Darien Blue Wave. The Wave went 19-9 in Chapter Two with a +60 runs differential.

Just as we did in Chapter One, we hit the crap out of the ball in Chapter Two. We hit .274/.355/.492 as a team, and ranked among the top three in pretty much every offensive category. Shohei Ohtani (.352/.452/.790, 12 HR) hit out of his mind this chapter. If he doesn't win the OL HotC award, it will be a shock. Adley Rutschman (.333/.429/.441), Jason Heyward (.320/.424/.500), Lane Thomas (.298/.333/.521), and Rafael Devers (.275/.368/.500) also raked this chapter.

Our pitching was substantially better in Chapter Two than it was in the first chapter. We posted a respectable 3.73 ERA as a team, allowed only 219 hits in 253+ innings, and yielded just 21 homers. Night and day compared to Chapter One. Our bullpen was phenomenal. Robert Stephenson, Dauri Moreta, Jesse Chavez, and Isaiah Campbell threw 38 innings combined without allowing a single earned run. Add Matt Strahm and Ian Hamilton to that mix, and we're talking 63 innings and three total runs allowed.

Ohtani (2-0, 2.52 ERA) bounced back on the mound in a big way this chapter after a brutal Chapter One. Kutter Crawford (3-0, 2.31) continues to astound as well.

Now...about that arbitrage thing.

I was berated by Jeff Paulson throughout this chapter because I decided to trade Trea Turner and Jon Gray. The GOAT believes that I should not have given up on a team that could be in contention. As it stands, the Mulligans are in second place in our division, one game ahead of the Blue Wave in the wildcard and one game behind the Flagstaff Peaks. So, he does have a point.

However...realistically, I can see the writing on the wall. We don't have the pitching to compete in this division. Flagstaff and Darien are both likely to finish with 100+ wins. We won't come close to that with this pitching staff. I saw two opportunities to put this franchise in a great position for the next 4-6 years and took it. I'd do it again if given a second chance.

When we began this past offseason, we had ZERO pitching for 2025 and beyond, other than J.P. Sears. We were set to lose Gray to free agency. Ohtani won't pitch at all in 2024. Our 2025 pitching staff was in deep, deep trouble. Today, it is looking like it could be one of the best pitching staffs I've ever assembled.

• Kutter Crawford: acquired this past winter in trade, is off to a blazing-hot start: 27 IP, 16 H, 0 HR, 11 BB, 30 K, 0.66 ERA.
• Casey Mize: also acquired last winter, is back from over a year off and seems healthy and productive: 21+ IP, 20 H, 1 HR, 6 BB, 16 K, 2.95 ERA.
• MacKenzie Gore: yet another winter pick-up, is off to a strong start: 20 IP, 21 H, 1 HR, 6 BB, 27 K, 3.60 ERA.
• Max Meyer: added in exchange for Gray: 17 IP, 11 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 14 K, 2.12 ERA.
• JP Sears: our lone holdover from last year: 26+ IP, 18 H, 2 HR, 10 BB, 16 K, 3.38 ERA.

That's five quality starters. Then we have several more arms in the minors that should be MLB-ready within the next year or two. Spencer Arrighetti made his MLB debut earlier this year. He had a rough debut, but looked good in his second outing, and has posted a 2.16 ERA in two AAA starts. Chase Dollander (15-7-2-5-27) has looked very good in his first three professional starts. If Ricky Tiedemann can ever stay healthy for more than a day, he would be a tremendous asset. And in the very low minors, Henry Lalane is being touted as a pitcher to watch over the next few years.

(And yes, I'm well aware that I just jinxed each and every one of the pitchers mentioned above.)

I'm not sure that any of this qualifies as arbitrage, but I'm very happy with how our roster is shaping up. We have so much depth in some key areas that if I wanted to make a move to improve our '24 chances, I could do that. And I just might!

Chapter One Recap

It didn't take long to figure out how this season will play out. By our second or third series, it became crystal clear. We will hit the crap out of the ball, but we'll need to score double digit runs in order to win, because our pitching is worse than horrendous. I knew this coming into the season, but I was hoping maybe I would be wrong. No such luck.

We wrapped up the first chapter with a respectable 16-12 record, matching the heavily-favored Darien Blue Wave. Both we and the Blue Wave are five games behind the red-hot Flagstaff Peaks, who won 21 games this chapter. We posted a runs differential of +28 despite allowing a league-high (for now) 149 runs.

We hit .295/.357/.530 as a team, which is just insane. We also hit an insane number of homers: 52. And we scored 177 runs, which is second only to Flagstaff. That's 6.3 runs per game, which is unsustainable, obviously.

That is a shame, because we would need to sustain that pace in order to win any games, given the horrific state of our pitching staff. We posted a 4.95 ERA in Chapter One, allowed more hits (263) than innings (250+), and a whopping 50 home runs (1.8 per game.)

Our "ace," Shohei Ohtani, went 1-3 with a 7.99 ERA. Michael Lorenzen (6.67 ERA), Joe Kelly (8.59), Bryan Shaw (12.86), and Robert Stephenon (5.93) have all allowed at least half as many home runs -- ALREADY! AFTER ONE CHAPTER! -- as they allowed ALL of last MLB season.

The one bright spot on our pitching staff is Kutter Crawford, who went 3-0 with a 1.24 ERA and has a chance to win the OL Pitcher of the Chapter award. Unfortunately, we had to use him out of the bullpen once due to an injury to a starting pitcher, which jacked up his usage. We have major usage issues across the board in our bullpen -- already! The number of teams that needlessly horde relievers in the BDBL has made it all but impossible to field a team.

We may also own the OL Hitter of the Chapter. Last year, Ohtani couldn't hit for shit. This year, he's making up for it. He hit .368/.424/.772 on the chapter, with 10 homers, 10 doubles, 3 triples, and 29 RBIs. Aaron Hicks (.345/.367/.586), Wilmer Flores (.333/.407/.556), Adley Rutschman (.327/.380/.566), Jason Heyward (.324/.351/.608), Brandon Belt (.302/.402/.523), and Bryan Reynolds (.271/.331/.508) all hit the snot out of the ball.

I don't know what to do with this team. We're obviously not good enough to compete, but we're obviously too good to throw in the towel at this point. I was tempted to trade Trea Turner this past chapter, and nearly did so, but ultimately decided to wait another chapter. I have plenty of trade bait if and when the time comes to bail. We're probably one ace starting pitcher away from being a playoff-caliber team, but that would mean trading a top prospect. Which I refuse to do. So here we are.